The world is what it is, as VS Naipaul once wrote. It is not what we may wish it to be. That bit of insight is coming in handy for political leaders across the world in these tough times. Mark Carney is one of them.
Carney is very clear-eyed about where the world is right now. The renowned economist became prime minister of Canada last month after a stellar career in investment and central banking. He made history in 2013 when he became the first non-British person to lead the Bank of England since its founding in 1694.
Two weeks ago, Carney said that Canada’s old relationship with the US, “based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military co-operation, is over”. He said Canadians must “fundamentally reimagine our economy” in the face of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is just as clear-eyed. He warned in a viral video last Friday that Trump’s tariff announcement “marks a seismic change in the global order”.
He added: “The era of rules-based globalisation and free trade is over. We are entering a new phase — one that is more arbitrary, protectionist and dangerous ... We must be clear-eyed about the dangers that are building up in the world.”
Given the barrage of executive orders, punitive tariffs, aid freezes, regular insults, diplomatic thrashings and other attacks on South Africa from Trump and those around him, it is clear that South Africa’s old relationship with the US “is over”. President Cyril Ramaphosa seems afraid to say it, but this is the incontrovertible case.
This is not “business as usual”. Pretoria needs to realise it is time to also “fundamentally reimagine our economy”. Sending delegations to the US to be insulted or lectured is not going to cut it. A government delegation of officials two weeks ago got a low-level hearing in Washington. AfriForum and Solidarity got there first.
Ministers Parks Tau and Ronald Lamola will visit Washington in the next few weeks to discuss tariffs. They will be treated pretty much as former ambassador Ebrahim Rasool was. It is a crowded path to beat, anyway: Lesotho, India and others are also sending delegations. I do not think South Africa’s delegation(s) will achieve much.
It may be of interest to Ramaphosa and his leadership team, in fashioning a slightly less predictable response to the US, to recognise that before and after his studies at Oxford University in the UK in the 1990s, Carney worked for global investment bank Goldman Sachs. While there he helped the Nelson Mandela administration gain access to international bond markets. His values are firmly aligned with South Africa’s. His country has been virulently attacked by the Trump administration, as South Africa has been.
Ramaphosa should call him. He should also call Wong. The EU has faced attacks similar to those on South Africa. He should call the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. And President Emmanuel Macron of France. He should resuscitate and build relations and friendships and alliances. He should do the unthinkable, including leaning on Trump’s new best friend, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, to intercede on South Africa’s behalf with Trump. Tap people within the Trump administration who may be sympathetic to South Africa to avert more damaging action. Call Trump’s South African buddy, Gary Player, and get him on side.
Two weeks ago Business Day columnist Jonny Steinberg painted a frightening scenario. Trump, he wrote, could prohibit US institutions from buying South Africa’s sovereign debt: “He does not need new legislation to do this. He could do unthinkable damage to South Africa simply by signing his name.”
On the same point, Sakeliga’s executive director, Russell Lamberti, said: “There is a pressing possibility the Trump admin could place financial flows from US institutions into South African bonds under review.”
Even if Trump does not sign an executive order to this effect, it could come through other means. As an example, Republican congressman Ronny Jackson has introduced the US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act of 2025, mandating a comprehensive review of the relationship between the two countries.
A clear-eyed analysis of the South Africa-US relationship shows that, in its current form, it is over. Only pain is coming for South Africa. It is not a matter of “ironing out some wrinkles”, as Ramaphosa characterised it in February. It is time for some serious, imaginative work.
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