I won’t lie. I will miss the ANC when it finally loses its grip on power in 2029.
I will miss its ideals and its thirst for freedom, equality and justice first advanced in majestic writings by its founding intellectuals in the early 1900s and at its formation in January 1912.
I will miss the bravery of its heroes and heroines — from Pixley ka Isaka Seme to Nelson Mandela to Ruth First.
I will miss the generosity of its spirit when it ascended to power in 1994 and led the adoption of a great constitution for our country.
I won’t miss its incompetence and its arrogance, its corruption and its entitlement, particularly since December 2007.
What I find discombobulating, and will probably continue to wonder about for the next four years, is how a party that is given so many chances to self-correct, to regain its stature and its support base, to get back on the admirable road its founders set it on, refuses to do so.
At every point over the past 18 years, when it has had the chance to forge a new path, the party has chosen corruption, selfishness and arrogance instead of humility and service to the people.
Take this matter of a VAT increase. Instead of dipping into the many ingenious resources at its disposal (including the incredible firepower assembled in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s economic advisory council) to find a solution, the ANC chose to act in a manner that will harm and alienate its base — the poor.
Finance minister Enoch Godongwana at first proposed a VAT increase of two percentage points to 17%. Admirably, the ANC’s own ministers joined with their opposition colleagues in the GNU to tell him to take a hike. He came back with two increases of 0.5 percentage points, spread over two years, bringing the rate to 16%.
How ironic: the party of the poor now has its knee on the necks of the working classes and it is piling on the pressure
Instead of telling him to look elsewhere for savings to deal with South Africa’s ballooning debt, the ANC’s bigwigs are now tjoepstil. How ironic: the party of the poor now has its knee on the necks of the working classes and it is piling on the pressure. Hundreds of alternative solutions have been given to the ANC and it does not care.
The ANC thinks the poor, even with this latest assault, will vote for it in 2029. It’s lying to itself.
It’s over.
The ANC only hastens its downward spiral and defeat with the way it is imploding Joburg, with its bloated cabinets, with its corrupt and untouchable ministers, with its inability to fix crime and corruption, with its failure to get young people into jobs.
With every election since 2009, when it fielded the corruption-accused Jacob Zuma as its candidate, more and more people have not bothered to vote, or have gone to opposition parties. The ANC’s pathetic 40% share of the vote in 2024 was down from 57% in 2019, which was itself a heavy drop from its 62% in 2014 and 65% in 2009. That’s a 25 percentage point slide in just 15 years.
The ANC is now flirting with the mistake that will wipe it out. It is trying to strike a budget deal with the ideologically incoherent MK Party and the ruinous EFF. That may get this flawed budget passed, but the ANC should know that these two parties will not tolerate the continuation of the GNU.
If the GNU collapses, South Africa will enter uncharted waters in policy direction, government stability and governance in general over the next four years. If you think the assault by US President Donald Trump over the past two months has led to uncertainty, watch what happens with an ANC-MK-EFF triumvirate in power.
There will be one big loser in such a coalition: the ANC. At this rate, if the ANC does nothing to wake up, it will be lucky to get 25% in 2029. In an alliance with MK and the EFF, it will collapse like COPE.
What’s amazing is that Ramaphosa and his fellow ANC leaders cannot even see the danger that they are walking into. They are choosing to commit suicide with their eyes wide open.
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