If you fly into Joburg in the afternoon of almost any day in spring or early summer, you will likely hit turbulence. Clouds build up over the city as the heat rises, and by afternoon they are heavy with water, ready to burst.
Regular flyers resign themselves to the inevitable bumps as the plane descends. Sometimes the shaking gets bad. About three months ago, the turbulence was so bad my flight had to proceed to Pretoria, then loop over Mpumalanga before it was safe to land at OR Tambo. The plane did not crash. Indeed, every summer we have this sort of turbulence. No plane crashes.
This, my friends, is largely how we should view the GNU. Unlike our aircraft, it is almost inevitable that the GNU will crash. Will it crash now, six months into the union? I very much doubt it. Marriages have been known to head for divorce during honeymoons, but I believe this one is still holding — and will do so for a while longer.
What most of us, particularly people in business, need to accept — like the frequent flyer into Joburg already has — is that turbulence is part of the deal. It is useless to start screaming or thinking you are about to crash every time there is a bump. Just sit back, fasten your seat belt and take the opportunity to plan a new product rollout.
Part of the reason I’m convinced the GNU is likely to survive another year is that both key players — the ANC and the DA — have more to gain being inside and together than being outside and at opposing ends.
Many South Africans have no idea just how much goodwill and respect President Cyril Ramaphosa and his ministers have earned abroad by pulling off a coalition deal.
Many South Africans have no idea just how much goodwill and respect President Cyril Ramaphosa and his ministers have earned abroad by pulling off a coalition deal
In Davos last week, where the world’s rich and powerful were obsessing about Donald Trump’s second US presidency, South Africa’s interactions were described as inspiring. Ian Bremmer, president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told his global readership that Ramaphosa and his coalition are “certainly getting the award for most improved governance of a decently sized country”.
Ramaphosa and a large chunk of his cabinet are focused on the G20 presidency and the group summit South Africa will host in November. They want to reach the summit, with its high-profile participants ranging from China’s Xi Jinping to Trump, with a GNU that is intact.
The DA largely wants the same because the success of the GNU is its own success. The party is basking in the achievements of its ministers, such as Leon Schreiber at home affairs, and is keen to show that it is “ready to govern” should voters give it a chance. The two parties need each other now.
They’ve made it clear that even with differences, they are prepared to travel together. Three months ago, DA federal council chair Helen Zille was cross with Deputy President Paul Mashatile for setting a date for the national dialogue without consulting her party. Zille tweeted that the ANC was acting unilaterally, “as if they won the election”.
She vowed that the DA would continue to push back strongly, but “if you are expecting the nuclear option, that can only be triggered once. Choose your battles. Choose your time.”
Is this week, and the fight over Ramaphosa’s signing of the Expropriation Bill into law, time for that nuclear option? I don’t think so. Last weekend DA leader John Steenhuisen, who is also minister of agriculture in the GNU, told the Sunday Times: “We are staying on because we understand there are going to be consequences for governance in South Africa if we simply walk away. We have to make the GNU work.”
The door is not closed to Steenhuisen and his comrades. ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula told Reuters. “The ANC will not change in its path in transforming South Africa … But we are ready to engage, including with the DA, on these particular matters.”
The fights over National Health Insurance, the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act and now the Expropriation Act are the turbulence we should expect when we have a coalition government in place. It’s turbulence, but it’s not the plane crashing and burning. Not for a while yet, anyway.
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