President Cyril Ramaphosa seems to have a new lease of life. If he is not in Beijing signing agreements with President Xi Jinping he is in New York proclaiming South Africa’s “second miracle”. If he is not in Joburg renewing his partnership with business leaders he is in Maseru celebrating the country’s history and talking water supply.
The government of national unity (GNU) and its early rewards — rand appreciation, business confidence ticking up, positive news on Eskom and at home affairs — seem to have energised the president. He must be even more enthused by news that the Social Research Foundation, which polled the May 29 election results accurately, is finding that the ANC is seeing increasing support on the back of the GNU agreement.
Despite the many close encounters with political death that he has had since 2018 (from the Phala Phala cash-in-cushions scandal to the humiliating 17 percentage point decline in electoral support to just 40% in May), Ramaphosa now looks unassailable in the ANC. The GNU, in its current form, is attributed to his calming presence.
DA federal council chair Helen Zille, a key architect of the coalition deal, was asked by the Sunday Times about Ramaphosa’s importance to the GNU’s survival. She answered: “If President Ramaphosa goes, it obviously depends on who succeeds him. If Paul Mashatile succeeds him ... From everything I know and have read about Paul Mashatile, the going won’t be smooth for us. I think a lot does depend on President Ramaphosa staying where he is.”
It worries me that the country’s fortunes are seemingly so tied up with just one man. Ramaphosa will not be in the running for ANC president in December 2027 when the party stages its national conference. From October 2026, when South Africa holds local government elections, he will largely be a spectator as new blood jostles to replace him. If the GNU is still holding then, will that new leader and the new ANC hierarchy favour continuing with it?
ANC leadership succession is crucial for all of us. There are a few talented youngsters in the party. Ronald Lamola, Zamani Saul and a few others are part of a technocratic younger generation that should be rising. Panyaza Lesufi is often mentioned by Gauteng ANC leaders, but I don’t give him a chance.
Ramaphosa needs a bigger and more diverse set of potential successors. We cannot have him being seen as the sole saviour of the GNU
Deputy President Mashatile is the front-runner to succeed Ramaphosa. He has been supportive of the GNU as it is constituted today. He is, however, a product of, and an influential player in, the Gauteng provincial wing of the ANC. Led by Lesufi, the Gauteng ANC has not been amenable to the DA, the ANC’s partner in the GNU. Lesufi failed to broker a coalition with the DA in the province. The Gauteng ANC helped topple the DA’s Tshwane mayor, Cilliers Brink, two weeks ago.
Mashatile has been one of very few ANC leaders to take on Solly Mapaila, general secretary of the SACP, over his allegation that the ANC was a “sell-out” for getting into bed with the DA. Mashatile told the SABC: “I can tell you that on this issue of the GNU, the alliance is at one. There must be something troubling Solly, but not the SACP. He is not the SACP.”
Mashatile’s ascendancy is not guaranteed. He has numerous corruption scandals hanging over him, including credible allegations of government entities he oversaw granting loans to his relatives and allies, who then did huge favours for him. Will he be charged? That would send a shock wave through the ANC, similar to what happened when Thabo Mbeki fired Jacob Zuma as deputy president in 2005. It could trigger a Gauteng ANC revolt against Ramaphosa. Even though the Gauteng ANC is extremely weak, it would lean on support from the EFF and MK Party to assail Ramaphosa.
Many other ANC leaders favour the GNU. However, not enough of them would resist populist overtures from Zuma’s MK Party or the EFF. A coalition with either party would see accountability of any sort being thrown out of the window. Would Mashatile stand on principle if he were forced into a marriage with one or both?
Ramaphosa needs a bigger and more diverse set of potential successors. We cannot have him being seen as the sole saviour of the GNU. We cannot have his alternative being just one, scandal-plagued, potential successor. It’s not good for Ramaphosa. It’s not good for the GNU. It’s not good for the country.
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