In April 1996 president Nelson Mandela reshuffled his cabinet. He appointed a promising young leader named Trevor Manuel as minister of finance. Over the next 13 years Manuel was to become South Africa’s most successful finance minister and a darling of business, but at the time he spooked the markets. The rand weakened; business leaders made scared noises.
The appointment had a profound impact on Mandela’s administration in a different way. He was in a government of national unity (GNU) that included the National Party (NP), with FW de Klerk as deputy president alongside Thabo Mbeki. The union was predicated on consultation and consensus-making.
When Mandela appointed Manuel, he did not consult De Klerk. He merely informed him that he was making the change. On May 10, just 26 days after the reshuffle, De Klerk announced the NP was quitting the GNU to become a “true opposition party”.
“We are not taking this decision in a negative spirit … We are not sour,” De Klerk said.
Yet it was clear that he was sour. He felt undermined, disrespected and snubbed. All the underlying resentments of the previous two years, and the shock of realising that the NP was no longer in charge after 46 years of apartheid rule, bubbled up to the surface. De Klerk led his colleagues out of Mandela’s cabinet, and thus ended the GNU of 1994.
Mandela could afford to see them go. He had 62% of the vote from 1994, and the IFP’s three ministers stayed on in the GNU despite the rivalry between the ANC and IFP in KwaZulu-Natal. De Klerk fashioned a narrative for his departure, saying: “We believe that the development of a strong and vigilant opposition is essential for the maintenance and promotion of genuine multiparty democracy … We have reached a natural watershed in the transformation of our society.”
I tell this story because the leaders of our newly minted GNU need to realise that a difficult period lies ahead. It will not just be the paper agreements and the work that will matter in this fragile new union; it is the way people feel.
It is the moment for men and women who want to make history and build a legacy to step forward. The work will need great hearts and minds
There is a clause in the 2024 unity government agreement that mirrors what happened in the Manuel appointment. Clause 17 reads: “While recognising the president’s prerogative to appoint members of the executive, such appointments should be done in consultation with the leaders of the respective parties of the members considered for appointment.”
It is an example of the kind of issue that could trip up the GNU and lead to its collapse.
Page 5 of the GNU statement of intent, under the headline “Modalities of the GNU”, is what you could call the “devil in the detail” clauses. This is the bit about how this animal will work, how it will stand or fall. It details how the cabinet will be made up (“The president shall, in constituting the executive, take into account the electoral outcomes”) and envisages deadlock-breaking mechanisms and other ways of driving consensus.
Reports at the weekend indicated that there were last-minute disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of consensus in this arrangement. It won’t be the last time that happens. It is tempting for a leader to claim there is no consensus, or for one to ram through a decision that is not in keeping with the consensus-seeking spirit of the pact. The consequences could be devastating.
These problems will come up often. The journey ahead will be challenging. It will require the type of leadership that can stand above partisan interests, ego, personality, pride and greed. Some signatories will be lured away by the trinkets offered by alternative coalition arrangements, thus imperilling the GNU.
Last Friday’s statement of intent to form a GNU is a call to leadership. It is the moment for men and women who want to make history and build a legacy to step forward. The work will need great hearts and minds. It will need seriousness and patience and tolerance. It will need an extraordinary amount of smart, empathetic, ethical leadership underpinned by strong values. It must succeed, or we might not recover from the next setback.
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