Don’t judge me. I feel for the ANC, the poor thing. Not many offer it advice; they just shout at it.
Everyone else in the political landscape gets oodles of advice. From what we hear, the DA is being sagely whispered to by business to jump into bed with Roger Jardine, or cuddle up to Cyril Ramaphosa and not get into a “situationship” (it’s a thing, look it up) with Julius Malema.
The ANC? No-one imparts words of wisdom to this valiant hero of our struggle. But I, out of the goodness of my heart, have chosen to be generous and give advice to the ANC. Given its straitened financial position, I know the party would love me to pass on a little brown envelope so it can head off the sheriff who’s been trying to attach its assets. But the economy is bad, the rand has tanked and we are all poor now, so no matter how loudly Santa Claus shouts “Ho, ho, ho”, I am not coughing up.
I shall only give pearls of my wisdom. So here goes:
“Dear ANC,
“It’s a big year, 2024. By all accounts, you will for the first time in 30 years poll less than 50% of the national vote.
There is zero upside in the ANC hooking up with one of the top two parties. Along that path lies a split, if not certain death for the ANC
“There will be immense pressure on you internally to jump into bed with someone who promises you their support so that you can stay in office and enjoy the blue lights, the free accommodation, the flights and the guaranteed 24-hour electricity while your parents experience load-shedding. Your own members will be begging you to strike a deal with the EFF so that you can jointly hoover up what’s left of taxpayers’ money.
“Meanwhile, members of the business community will be telling you to jump into bed with the DA. They’ll say: ‘Think of the investment that will rush into South Africa when two business-loving organisations govern together.’ Someone might even strike a few chords from Paul McCartney and Stevie Wonder’s Ebony and Ivory. Bless.
“Don’t do it, ANC. Don’t be tempted. If the ANC goes to bed with the EFF, it will die. If the ANC goes to bed with the DA, it will also die.
“The party is already at death’s door. Party stalwart Mavuso Msimang said bye-bye last week. Others will follow Jardine and start new parties or go independent. If the ANC shacks up with the EFF, this trickle will become a flood. Serious members (yes, they exist) of the party who hold no truck with the irresponsible populism and nauseating flip-flopping of the EFF would pack up and leave. The ANC would split or splinter.
“If the ANC goes with the DA, it faces the same fate. There are many people in the ANC’s national, provincial, regional and local leadership ranks who are in the party only to line their pockets. An ANC alliance with the DA would include a commitment to eradicate corruption. That won’t be acceptable to the ANC. But the coalition would face an even bigger problem: the RET wing of the party will go into super-drive with conspiracy theories, alleging everything from Western leaders controlling their party president to aliens running Luthuli House.
“These guys don’t want to leave the ANC. The party is great cover for corruption. But they won’t be able to sustain their presence in the party. They will make a huge noise, call Ramaphosa names and head out to join the EFF.
“So, there is zero upside in the ANC hooking up with one of the top two parties. Along that path lies a split, if not certain death for the ANC.
“There is only one way for the ANC to stay in power and survive. That one way is to renew and recharge itself. That will not happen. Not now; perhaps never. Corruption is deep in the bones of the party.
“The only other way to survive is to eat the babies, gobbling up the likes of the IFP, the ACDP, the Freedom Front Plus, Patricia de Lille’s GOOD and other smallanyana parties. The IFP is particularly vulnerable, given that it has lost its founder and intellectual figurehead Mangosuthu Buthelezi. It is begging for someone to take it and give it purpose. That would solve the ANC’s 2024 problem. Long term? It’s over.”
Happy holidays!
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