In May 2012 Jim O’Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist who coined the acronym “Bric” to describe the four economies — Brazil, Russia, India and China — that would dominate the global economy by 2050, wrote a piece for the Mail & Guardian. O’Neill wanted to explain that he was not pessimistic about South Africa and its recent inclusion in the grouping, and to clarify the idea behind Brics.
“[It] was meant to describe those countries large enough today, or which might be large enough in the future, to be literally part of the ‘bric’ or fabric of the modern global economy,” he wrote.
“You need two things to be a large economy: a large population and strong productivity. Over the past decade, following much research, I have found myself suggesting that, to be a true Bric nation, a country probably needs to be producing at least 5% of global GDP, or showing strong signs that this level is highly likely to be achieved in some foreseeable future. Only the four countries that make up the acronym ‘Bric’ can satisfy this criterion. South Africa simply does not have enough people.”
He did not want to say out loud that we do not have the productivity, either. South Africa’s economy grew by a paltry 2.4% in 2012 while Russia grew 4%, Brazil 1.9%, China 7.8% and India 5.4%. This year China is projected to grow 5.2% and India 5.8%. South Africa will be lucky to grow 0.4% while Russia, weighed down by war and sanctions, will do 0.7%.
So, the key takeaway from this week’s Brics meeting in Joburg is that we are witnessing the triumph of politics over economics. South Africa has failed to keep up with the other Brics countries and has destroyed the economy we built between 2001 and 2009. All we have left is to hold on to the misguided political coattails and rhetoric of the Brics while unemployment rises, poverty deepens and inequality widens.
The Brics grouping, with at least 23 nations begging to become part of it, is becoming a powerful political formation as it ramps up its anti-West rhetoric. But the economics? Has being in Brics paid any dividend for South Africa and its people? No. I venture that the big losers are our economy and our emphasis on human rights, and the supremacy of international law in the conduct of our foreign policy.
The key takeaway from this week’s Brics meeting in Joburg is that we are witnessing the triumph of politics over economics
On Sunday, when President Cyril Ramaphosa backed China’s call for a new financial world order that prevents “unilateral sanctions” against countries such as Russia, you knew there had been a shift. He wants to insulate the men of war from accountability.
It is a sad day. In 1993, the ANC released an admirable document outlining how a democratic South Africa would conduct foreign policy. It said the policy’s principles were “a belief in, and preoccupation with, human rights”; the promotion of democracy; that justice and international law should guide relations between nations; and a “belief that our foreign policy should reflect the interests of the continent of Africa”.
All these principles were trampled on this week. The main players at this week’s summit were our new besties Russia and China. According to Human Rights Watch, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, “Russian authorities [have] doubled down in their relentless attack against free speech, civic activism, independent journalism and political dissent, in an apparent attempt to silence public opposition to the war, any criticism of the government, or any expression of social nonconformism … Key political opposition leaders are behind bars, as are a growing number of critics of the authorities and of the war.”
Meanwhile, the Human Rights Measurement Initiative, a New Zealand-based project that tracks social, economic and political freedoms, ranks China as the worst country in the world for safety from the state and the right to assembly.
In Niger, Russian mercenaries support the coup leaders and are fomenting war in the Sahel. They don’t promote democracy and are undermining African leaders’ attempts to isolate the coup leaders and restore civilian rule. South Africa doesn’t care about the Africans — we are too busy air-kissing Russians.
We are now firmly in bed with states that trample on human rights and have no respect for international law. Meanwhile, our children have no jobs, and our factories are abandoned. The only economic sector thriving in Africa these days are the mines producing rare minerals for our newfound friends.
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