Two events dominate the South African political calendar in February. First, the president addresses the nation and lays out the government’s priorities for the year. Then two weeks after the state of the nation address (Sona), the finance minister outlines how we are going to fund the programmes outlined by the president.
The most memorable of these events was FW de Klerk’s 1990 Sona announcing the unbanning of liberation organisations and the release of political prisoners, among them Nelson Mandela. That Sona changed everything. Will this year’s Sona have even a tenth of its impact?
There is an added element to this year’s calendar: a cabinet reshuffle is imminent, meaning we also get to meet and assess the new team that should deliver these programmes for us.
Now, let me start by saying there is no profit in pessimism. Optimism always wins, and I am an optimist. So believe me when I say I am optimistic about the people of this country and about what they can achieve. I am also optimistic that many among our leaders want to do good — and that they have a real chance of success if they act with speed and resolve today.
But I’m not naive. Track record matters. What our current leaders have done in the past helps us predict what they may do in the future. By this I mean that there have been many speeches and many fine words but little action from our leaders in the past five years.
This leaves me unconvinced that we stand on the precipice of the breakthrough in policymaking and effective governance that will lead to the renaissance of our nation. We’ve heard it all before.
Not that the opportunity does not exist. Never have conditions been as opportune as they are today for a South African renaissance. President Cyril Ramaphosa has won the wholehearted endorsement of his party to continue with his long-promised reforms. His opponents in the party are in disarray and have lost every single malevolent tilt at him. He is in his last term as party president, so he has very little to lose.
Any leader serious about their legacy would go for the jugular and clear the path for real change. Not Ramaphosa. Going into this cycle of speeches and events, he seems to be on the back foot on all three fronts.
On policy, since its recent elective conference the ANC has spouted the same old tired positions it adopted back in 2007. The same old tired slogans — developmental state, National Health Insurance, nationalisation of the Reserve Bank, cadre deployment, blah blah — have been trotted out. Not a word about effective government, about results. All this is accompanied, in the government, by the large-scale appointment of useless advisory committees.
This policy paralysis was reflected in the ANC’s January 8 statement, and by the ANC national executive committee lekgotla, and by the cabinet lekgotla. They should not have bothered to meet. All they needed to do was cut and paste the same platitudes in a new document with a different font.
The unity of the ANC continues to trump the revitalisation of a crumbling South Africa
It gets worse. Reports that Ramaphosa will retain a useless minister such as the lacklustre Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, who has over the past five years presided over the total collapse of our municipalities and consistently supported the divisive actions of Jacob Zuma, are depressing.
Her reappointment would be hugely disappointing, but I would not be surprised at all by it. It’s the Ramaphosa way. Even with the hefty endorsement he has received from his party to cut the dissidents loose and govern, Ramaphosa still wants the likes of Dlamini Zuma and Lindiwe Sisulu in his tent. Throughout 2022 they spoke in support of those who tried to blackmail, besmirch and unseat Ramaphosa. Incredibly, this disloyalty is likely to be rewarded with ministerial positions and perks.
This is not how to build a capable state. Indeed, this is how a capable state is undermined and shot down before it emerges. The unity of the ANC continues to trump the revitalisation of a crumbling South Africa.
And so, the key thing to look out for will be whether Ramaphosa displays a fidelity to action and results rather than fine words and his comrades in the ANC. His record has shown him repeatedly choosing ANC unity. That’s the road to failure. February 2023 will be critical.
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