A video clip doing the rounds on social media shows a pride of lions subduing a huge buffalo and then trying to kill it. But the lions keep fighting among themselves, nipping at each other’s hind legs, drawing each other’s attention away from the job at hand. The lions’ internal battling becomes so distracting that the buffalo manages to stand up unhindered, take a few steps away from the melee, and set off at a trot.
The clip is popular among President Cyril Ramaphosa’s supporters. They have shared it widely with the headline “How Ramaphosa survived the ANC NEC [national executive committee] meeting”, with reference to the two meetings of the ANC leadership in the wake of the parliamentary panel’s damning report on the Phala Phala scandal. Ramaphosa survived both NEC meetings and a meeting held by the national working committee of the party.
How has the president survived the relentless assault on him over the past five years? The clip is a lighthearted propaganda piece, but it perfectly explains part of the reason Ramaphosa has clung on to power, particularly since the Phala Phala foreign currency shenanigans were polished up and leaked to hobble him.
The past six months have seen Ramaphosa at his weakest, because he cannot adequately explain why there was $580,000 hidden in the cushions of the sofas in his house. Of course, it is his money, but he looks shifty. Yet he has still not been felled by his enemies. He is still up, and he is still fighting.
It’s because his opponents and his enemies are divided. One often hears of the radical economic transformation (RET) faction of the party, but this entity has neither head nor tail. It is built around former president Jacob Zuma, but its various parts do not always cohere. Its leading lights are Zweli Mkhize, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma and Lindiwe Sisulu. They are all running their own separate campaigns to torpedo Ramaphosa. That means their resources and efforts are divided — that’s the reason Ramaphosa has garnered more nominations than all three combined. On the eve of the party conference, they still pull in different directions. The buffalo is sauntering to victory.
Ramaphosa is still up, and he is still fighting because his opponents and his enemies are divided
The parliamentary opposition detests the ANC, but the personalised anti-Ramaphosa venom of the African Transformation Movement (ATM) and Julius Malema’s EFF leaves the DA appalled. The parliamentary opposition cannot agree on a united way forward. That division is understandable. The ATM and EFF are in large measure factions of the ANC, and they behave in the same factional fashion as the main party. So a united opposition position to oust Ramaphosa is near impossible.
Ramaphosa’s deputy, David “DD” Mabuza, seems to have lost support in the ANC. His main cheerleader now is Malema, who does not tire of telling audiences that Mabuza is fit to lead.
Malema, who is deeply connected to ANC politics, seems to be ignoring Paul Mashatile, who has built a strong coalition of ANC rivals to support him for the deputy presidency of the party. If Ramaphosa wins the presidency this weekend but is torpedoed in a few months by charges being laid against him, the man most likely to then ascend is Mashatile.
Even Ramaphosa’s faction is divided. His campaign managers have been fighting against Mashatile’s bid for the deputy presidency for months, but Mashatile’s faction supports Ramaphosa’s second-term bid. Meanwhile Bejani Chauke, seen largely as the driver and architect of Ramaphosa’s campaign in the run-up to the 2017 conference, has slammed the coterie of ministers who run the president’s campaign. Chauke is running his own campaign to be party treasurer-general and says he is also running a parallel Ramaphosa campaign, because the president’s team is useless.
“We’re campaigning for him outside of the CR22 campaign because I don’t think they are doing anything. I don’t think they have a clue what they are doing. They are just compromising his name,” he told TimesLIVE recently.
So a curious phenomenon is emerging. Ramaphosa has managed to garner the support of most of the anti-Zuma/RET factions but has no anointed faction himself. At the same time, the Zuma/RET faction is divided.
If he survives the many arrows aimed at his back this week, the buffalo is most likely to walk away victorious from the conference next week.
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