Let’s cut to the chase. Only one question matters: what kind of administration will we get after December 20, the day the ANC wraps up its elective conference? Will it be any better than the slothful, slovenly, divided and complacent lot we have now?
Barring a legal complication over the Phala Phala saga, President Cyril Ramaphosa will secure a second term as party head. His deputy will almost certainly be former Gauteng premier Paul Mashatile. The chemistry — or lack of it — between the two will be crucial to South Africa’s trajectory over the next two years. If they can work together as an energetic and focused unit, South Africa can achieve much. If they fail to do so, we will see a repeat of the failed, tentative, “unity at all costs” approach that Ramaphosa has adopted over the past five years. It has yielded little bounty for him or the country.
Mashatile wants to be ANC president in five years, if not sooner. For that transition from Ramaphosa to Mashatile to happen smoothly and successfully, Ramaphosa would have to give him the nod and avoid a messy fight similar to the transition from Thabo Mbeki to Jacob Zuma in 2007. However, as is becoming clear, Ramaphosa is not one to give his nod quickly or easily.
One of the extraordinary aspects of this year’s ANC leadership race is that there is no definitive Ramaphosa “slate”. There have been many anti-Ramaphosa slates, but one cannot say he has anointed any of those associated with him. Even Bejani Chauke, his political adviser and a treasurer-general hopeful, has not emerged as a Ramaphosa pick. He is fighting his own battle, though the light cast by proximity to Ramaphosa can’t hurt his ambitious gambit among the president’s lobbyists.
So, Ramaphosa and Mashatile are not “running mates”. They are running separate campaigns. If Ramaphosa stumbles, Mashatile would not hesitate to step in. Yet, the possibility of a smooth working relationship between Ramaphosa and Mashatile exists even though they operate very differently. For example, though he rose to power through factional ANC politics, Ramaphosa seems to be trying to eliminate the phenomenon.
Mashatile emphatically believes that cadre deployment is not unconstitutional and doesn’t foster corruption and state capture
Mashatile, on the other hand, is a past master at faction fighting: he was rumoured to be the leader of the powerful “Alex mafia” of ANC leaders who controlled Gauteng and its multimillion-rand tenders in the 2000s. He was an integral part of the “premier league” faction that supported Zuma in the 2010s. If ANC factions die, Mashatile also dies as a candidate.
The area where these two find common ground is the economy. Mashatile has been an advocate of steady, centrist, pro-market, nonpopulist, “investment is king” policies for 20 years since his tenure as finance MEC in Gauteng.
On almost every key issue, he has followed the same Ramaphosa pro-growth line that believes, among other things, in the independence of the Reserve Bank and the National Treasury. He has pooh-poohed nationalisation of the Bank and prescription of pension funds, and — back in 2012 — refused to support wholesale nationalisation. Instead, he called for the establishment of a state mining company.
One must remember, however, that Mashatile also believes in the ANC’s own people and not institutions. So, under him the Public Investment Corp would be independent, as would many other institutions. But those who drive them would be his appointees — remember, he emphatically believes that cadre deployment is not unconstitutional and doesn’t foster corruption and state capture.
In this Ramaphosa-Mashatile scenario, Enoch Godongwana would stay on as minister of finance. That should cheer the market, but Godongwana has been too tentative since he replaced Tito Mboweni. He needs to speed up reforms of the economy and cut red tape more aggressively.
In terms of personnel, the question is whether Ramaphosa will dump seat-warmers such as labour minister Thulas Nxesi; trade, industry & competition minister Ebrahim Patel; tourism minister Lindiwe Sisulu and others who are in their positions because of ties to the SACP or their family connections.
Ramaphosa and Mashatile fear one thing more than they fear a collapsed South Africa: an ANC that has split. They are prepared to accommodate thieves and sloths to keep the ANC united. If they don’t dump this approach, it will be their undoing.
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