On July 16 a group calling itself the Free Jacob Zuma Campaign "gave" the government 14 days to release the former president from prison. The campaign’s organisers issued a veiled warning that the riots Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal had experienced the previous week would be repeated if their demand was not met by the end of July.
July 31 came and went. Nothing happened. KZN and the rest of SA remained calm. Yet to say "nothing happened" is a lie on my part.
Something did happen. Many ordinary residents of KZN who could afford it took a "holiday" from the province that weekend. Parents sent their children away to relatives in Gauteng and elsewhere. Many people shut what was left of their businesses and waited to see what would happen. People were afraid and, crucially for business, uncertain about the security and stability of KZN.
Last week messages were doing the rounds on social media that a shutdown of SA and specifically KZN would take place on August 23 to force President Cyril Ramaphosa to step down and win the release of Zuma. Security companies, police sources and others sent out "warnings" that there was "chatter" of a repeat of the devastating riots.
I know of people who did exactly what they did at the end of July. They shuttered their business, locked up their homes and drove to the Eastern Cape or elsewhere for the week. It wasn’t racial. Black, white, Indian and coloured businesses closed down.
In Nongoma, a former DA leader announced that businesses would all shut down in fear on Monday. In valleys and towns, farmers and townspeople closed shop.
Uncertainty has consequences. Those who can, eventually leave areas of uncertainty
SA has for a long time lived with a degree of policy uncertainty and political risk. There are many reasons for this — our horrific past, our deep inequality and poverty and so much else. We didn’t deserve much of it but, thankfully and crucially, it didn’t threaten to crash the country.
Sadly, uncertainty about the stability of our democracy and the security of our state is what we now have in the system. More than 20,000 soldiers are on the streets this week. The SABC, the president’s residence and other national key points are surrounded by members of the SA National Defence Force. It is extraordinary. Who would want to do business here?
It is incredible that there is so little communication and action from the authorities about the security situation in SA. How is a businesswoman in KZN supposed to run her business when she does not know how much stock to order because she may have to shut down tomorrow — or be looted? How is Saudi Arabia supposed to sink hundreds of millions of rands into an economy that is threatened every second week by Zuma’s supporters?
The only way you remove this massive uncertainty from the system is by continually informing investors — from the 50,000 small businesses that lost property and money in July and have suffered most from the pandemic, to Mr Moneybags in Dubai or New York — how you are dealing with the threat to their livelihoods, their profits and the many jobs they create.
Over and above the messaging, there has to be action. Entrepreneurs and investors are doers and like to see their partners — in this case the government — as action people too. So where are the arrests of those responsible for July’s mayhem? Where is the action?
Uncertainty has consequences. Those who can eventually leave areas of uncertainty. We can’t afford for that to happen. The new finance minister, Enoch Godongwana, has said he would rather have people in jobs than on social grants. He is right. But with uncertainty there will be no jobs, no matter how hard he tries. Investors will not put money into an unstable economy. In the medium term, uncertainty over the security situation will see our doctors, bankers, accountants, nurses and many other professionals flee to Dubai, Texas, London and elsewhere.
Ramaphosa and the government he leads need to shut these insurrectionists down — and communicate. We are on the brink.
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