Eight months ago, the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) and market research group Ipsos warned that there could be an increase in xenophobic attacks as SA sought to recover from Covid’s economic impact. At about the same time, the outgoing Nigerian consul general, Godwin Adama, said SA and Nigeria needed to urgently establish early warning systems to prevent xenophobic attacks.
Last Wednesday, as SA commemorated the June 16 1976 uprising, shops owned by foreigners in the Soweto suburbs of Mapetla and Naledi were looted and burnt. In the weeks before the public holiday, shop owners in various parts of Soweto had received letters that they had to leave Soweto by June 16. On social media a group called Dudula distributed posters emblazoned with the words: "Operation Dudula: we will be removing all illegal foreign nationals by force!!!"
In one poster the group called for a meeting at Diepkloof community hall and warned that "if you are operating illegally, you better pack and leave before the 16th June!"
I am deeply afraid that we will soon see another major outbreak of xenophobic violence in SA. I warned about this two months ago, and now the warning signs are flashing again. Last week’s attacks in Soweto are not new or isolated. Organisations such as Put SA First are mobilising on social media and spreading their messages — mainly that crime in SA is perpetrated by "illegal foreigners" who are also "stealing jobs and opportunities" from citizens — far and wide. As an example of their access, the leaders of this organisation recently visited former president Jacob Zuma at his Nkandla homestead and gushed all over him.
In poverty-stricken areas such as Hammanskraal, formations like Dudula and Put SA First are mushrooming. Their thinking is extremely lazy, of course, but that doesn’t matter: their call has been heeded and they are organising and growing.
My fear is that our government is incapable of predicting, identifying or stopping a new wave of xenophobic attacks
Our dire economic situation has not helped. Last year the HSRC and Ipsos said they expected tensions to rise again because of competition for jobs and scarce resources.
Well, in a country with such a horrendous youth unemployment rate, many will run towards those who can lazily point at "illegal foreigners" as the root of their problems.
The issue now is what, if anything, we are doing about it.
Was Adama’s plea for the establishment of warning systems to prevent xenophobic attacks taken seriously, or even implemented? Did the government listen when the HSRC urged it to be proactive and take actions such as giving noncitizens access to documentation and induction programmes?
My fear is that our government is incapable of predicting, identifying or stopping a new wave of xenophobic attacks.
The Dudula posters had been doing the rounds for weeks. Yet, on the morning of June 16, shops in Soweto were burnt and looted. The police had not expected these attacks at all. The most Bheki Cele’s best could do was arrive with a water tank. This is an example of lazy, reactive policing that achieves nothing.
The attacks are a failure of our intelligence services. Surely people in crime intelligence should have infiltrated such violent groups by now, and have pointers on where the flashpoints are? Where is the National Intelligence Agency that is supposed to be guarding against threats to domestic stability?
When xenophobic attacks broke out in 2008 the intelligence agencies were caught napping. They were too busy playing politics inside the ANC and clumsily tailing innocent people like Saki Macozoma instead of doing useful work. The human cost was devastating: 62 people died, including 21 South Africans, 11 Mozambicans, five Zimbabweans and three Somalis. Thousands were injured, according to Human Rights Watch.
Incidents such as these have consequences beyond our borders. The deadly xenophobic attacks of 2019 in SA sparked reprisal attacks and calls for an end to the operation of SA businesses in Nigeria. Elsewhere, South Africans were attacked and diplomats had to scramble to contain the negative fallout. It was too late. Our fellow Africans regard us with suspicion and disgust now.
We are on the brink again. We had better act fast.
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