A lot of what plagues SA’s policy environment is exactly what ails the US too: uncertainty. In the US, the president changes policy at a whim; you never know what’s next. In SA, the ANC flip-flops on policy at a whim; you never know what’s next.
Last week US President Donald Trump’s administration was preparing an executive order intended to curtail the legal protections that protect social media companies from liability for what gets posted on their platforms.
Why this and why so suddenly? Twitter had attached fact-checking notices on two of his tweets after he made false claims about voter fraud.
So, like a toddler who has just been reprimanded, off he goes, throwing his toys out of the cot.
Trump has flip-flopped radically on everything from the World Health Organisation, to China, to co-operation with Russia, to support for the UN and embracing regimes such as North Korea and Saudi Arabia.
The US’s wealth and its institutions will perhaps help it weather the many storms it faces.
However, uncertainty in SA has debilitating consequences: unemployment, poverty, hunger.
In the wake of the economic devastation wrought by Covid-19 we all hope for clear vision, sound policy, decisive leadership and professional implementation. Unfortunately, we have to seriously consider that things may not turn out like that. The future may very well be more of the same old indecisiveness, corruption and jaw-dropping slothfulness we have seen from the ANC in the past.
Instead of facing the future with vigour, we may be an enclave where our leaders eat for themselves
Only this time it will take place in a shattered economy. Instead of a resolute new country facing the future with vigour and purpose, we may just be an incompetent little enclave where our leaders eat for themselves and the people rip each other apart while competing for the scraps. This is not my main scenario, but we have to consider it because what’s unfolding in our country now points to a heightened possibility of this playing out.
New and more practical policy on state-owned companies? Reports indicate we will be doing more of the same for SAA and other cash-guzzling state-owned enterprises. The SAA business rescue practitioners have apparently proposed that the government provide a R21bn bailout to the airline to help repay debt — and the government has agreed.
At the same time as this bit of news came to light, President Cyril Ramaphosa was telling journalists: "I am pretty gung-ho about a future of a new SA industry, and I am also gung-ho about the future of the aviation industry. I see a good future for SAA, and similarly I see a better future for Eskom."
So. Expect good money to continue flowing down the drain.
In the meantime, the ANC is proposing that new legislation be passed to force your pension fund to invest in "developmental projects" (ANC economics chief Enoch Godongwana says this is not a back door for imposing a "prescribed assets" policy), that the Reserve Bank should finance infrastructure spending and that a new state bank should be created. No one says a word about a collapsing state bank — the Land Bank. While we are at it, a state pharmaceutical company is on the cards too.
Major uncertainty on SA’s policy path will remain when we are through the coronavirus tunnel. Of course, these are just examples of proposed policies, but it’s worth noting that these have been around for years and have caused anxiety. Isn’t it time to discard them now and chart a new post-Covid route?
The stench of corruption isn’t going away anytime soon either. The Sunday Times reported last weekend that arms deal fixer Fana Hlongwane is still in business, this time accompanying Russian gas utility Gazprom to talks with the department of mineral resources & energy to build a multibillion-rand plant. Hlongwane featured prominently in inquiries into SA’s corrupt arms deal in the late 1990s and was named at the Zondo commission of inquiry into state capture.
The Zuma era may have passed, but the practices and the characters of past eras persist. They are not going to go away.
Many of us are hoping for a more certain, less volatile post-Covid-19 policy environment. It’s looking increasingly unlikely. SA will continue to be punished for it.
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