JUSTICE MALALA: The end of the world as we know it

The Covid-19 pandemic has upended all our scenarios. Until February political analysis in SA was focused mainly on power dynamics within the ANC and the tripartite alliance: would President Cyril Ramaphosa act fast or slow? Or at all? One way or the other would affect policy and shift investor confidence up or down. Then you drew some scenarios.

The pandemic has blown all that out of the window. A whole new set of actions and reactions have taken place. The balance of power has shifted, perhaps permanently. New priorities and pressure points have arisen. It’s a new paradigm.

The Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) and its civil-service affiliates seemed set to win the battle over our ruinous public-sector wage increases, despite SA falling into junk status.

Now, with millions of jobs being lost, their argument comes across as pure greed. However, the mighty Cosatu has lost power within the alliance. In recent days its secretary-general, Bheki Ntshalintshali, has said Cosatu has "no problem" with the government approaching the IMF for Covid-19 funding.

Diehard communists must be spinning in their graves.

In the ANC, the anti-Ramaphosa faction is collapsing. Jessie Duarte has been issuing statements supporting and praising Ramaphosa’s handling of the crisis. Ditto her ally, secretary-general Ace Magashule. In the crisis, the party machinery has diminished while the government, with its deployment of troops and mobilisation of big emergency budgets, is centre-stage. These two stirrers have been left twiddling their thumbs.

Meanwhile, Jacob Zuma’s legal troubles are exactly that — his. They are no longer a good-enough rallying point for his dwindling support base. You can’t organise a rally at the Pietermaritzburg High Court when you have a limit of 50 people for gatherings.

Two months ago Zweli Mkhize, the health minister, was notorious for his hardline and shambolic handling of the National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme. Now he is a hero touted as a possible Ramaphosa successor.

Finance minister Tito Mboweni was derided by the Left as a running dog of capitalism. Now he is seen as the man keeping a steady hand on the tiller.

Power has shifted in the cabinet and in the ANC.

All these shifts and changes will have a profound impact on policy. Globally, big government is in vogue again. Governments are called on for relief from the ravages of Covid-19.

Many politicians and policymakers are calling for radical changes to health-care provision, government participation in economic stimulus and to a whole range of policy areas.

The NHI debate in SA will no longer be a matter of "if". It is now a matter of "how and when". The private health-care sector may moan and weep at this, but this pandemic has brought into sharp relief the inequities of the system. Yes, I know: the government needs to fix the public health-care sector first. That doesn’t mean that the NHI is not back on the agenda, and with greater vigour.

Globally big government is in vogue again, as it is called on for relief from the ravages of Covid-19

What other policies might we see come into play? Following the increases in child and old-age grants, there is a greater call for a blanket basic income grant. No-one is talking about where the money is going to come from, but this isn’t going to go away. Plus, what happens when the current increases are phased out in six months’ time? A wealth tax has been mooted.

Within and outside the ANC some are calling on SA Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago to "print money". That might not fly, but the debate on monetary policy will resurface and become more strident.

From this sometimes contradictory pile of demands we will have to tease out some scenarios.

One may be that a rejuvenated Ramaphosa swats away all before him and implements a radical set of market-friendly reforms to set SA on an aggressive growth path. Or maybe the populists within his party will use this moment to say he is not moving fast enough on a socialist path and swat him aside instead.

Ramaphosa is a fierce proponent of a "middle way" — is that what we will end up with?

Paradigms have shifted. Draw your scenarios. And don’t forget that there may be a black swan waiting just around the corner.