An election win is a very nice thing, of course. But you have to use it, and use it fast. A newly elected leader who thinks time is on their side is headed for disaster.
Take Mexico, for example.
The New York Times wrote last week: "After his landslide victory last year, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico promised a staggering transformation of his country — on par with independence from Spain and the Mexican revolution.
"But five months into his term, the new Mexico he says he is building looks an awful lot like the old one he swore to leave behind."
Buhari was welcomed with open arms but sat on his hands as unemployment and poverty worsened
The newspaper continued: "Corruption was a hallmark issue for … Obrador during the campaign, a national scourge he vowed to end. Yet his government has announced no major prosecutions of public officials or other prominent figures on corruption charges since he took office."
Obrador is turning out to be a man of many words but little action.
Take another example: the person Nigerians returned to the presidency of their country this year.
Muhammadu Buhari was welcomed with open arms by the world when he was first elected four years ago. Barack Obama, at the time US president, immediately invited him to the White House for a pow-wow. Much was expected of him.
He arrived in State House in Abuja and sat on his hands.
By the end of his first term in February this year Nigeria’s unemployment rate had leapt from 10.4% in January 2016 to 23.1% in July 2018. UN statistics show Nigeria has now overtaken India as the country with the largest number of people in a state of extreme poverty (defined as living on less than $1.90 a day).
Nigeria is Africa’s biggest oil producer, yet half its population — about 87-million people — live in extreme poverty.
Buhari has been re-elected to a second term in office. Don’t laugh. He has been rewarded for his failure.
As President Cyril Ramaphosa prepares for his inauguration, the popular saying "Begin as you mean to go on, and go on as you began" crossed my mind. It reminded me that next year, after a year in office, Ramaphosa, will be assessed by many.
It will be too late.
Ramaphosa’s success or failure will become apparent in the next three to six months.
In SA we give our presidents a maximum of two terms. The beginning of the first term is when a president is at their most powerful, with 10 years of power to wield — a virtual blank cheque.
If Ramaphosa is tentative in exercising his power, then in six months’ time he will still be tentative. By then he will be thinking about how his own comrades may challenge him at the party’s national general council in mid-2020. He will be distracted by the possible return of former president Jacob Zuma. He will be cowed by the strength of the EFF in parliament. He will be losing it.
For Ramaphosa the night of the long knives has to be immediate.
He has to clean house right at the beginning. This is not a man who is learning the ropes: he was Zuma’s deputy for four years. He has been president for a year. He has now been handed a sweet mandate.
For those who take a five-to 10-year view, the time to chart SA’s trajectory is in six months. If Ramaphosa has started off strong, you can confidently put your thoughts down with some positivity. If in the next six months he "ums" and "aahs" and remains tentative, know this: the man will never find his backbone.
The results of that will be what you can see with administrations like Buhari’s in Nigeria: permanent indecision that leads to increased unemployment, poverty and inequality.
There may be some around Ramaphosa who tell him to take his time, to assess some more.
That is terrible advice.
There is no time for Ramaphosa. Before he knows it we will be voting again. And if he has not delivered he will be punished further.
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