You’d have thought the ANC would have learnt from state capture, a traumatic era in which the party breathed hardly a peep about the industrial-scale larceny happening over at 3 Saxonwold Drive. Yet when finance minister Tito Mboweni displayed a smidgeon of independence, one of his finer characteristics as finance minister, he came in for a lacerating attack for being "ill-disciplined" from within his own political party. What riled his critics, this time, was Mboweni’s admission that "I didn’t like the continuous ban on alcohol and tobacco but I lost the debate, and therefore I have to toe the line."
He later added that having to obey the collective decision "sometimes feels like swallowing a rock".
You can see why he’d say that, since he has to find the money for the R500bn bailout, and the booze and cigarette ban has cost more than R1.5bn in lost tax revenue. But his willingness to speak openly about his dissent immediately elevated him to something of a hero to those who’ve pointed out the irrationality of the ban.
At last week’s ANC national executive committee meeting, insiders say Mboweni’s comments caused a stir. His critics, largely from within the radical economic transformation brigade, were already itching for a fight over his talk in recent months about selling or shutting down basket case state-owned companies like SAA.
But, insiders say, his opponents were deftly shut down. As Qaanitah Hunter reported for News24, ANC deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte described the squabble as "infantile politics", believing the Covid-19 crisis is too big a problem to be nitpicking over tweets.
Instead, President Cyril Ramaphosa apparently "cautioned" Mboweni against putting out incendiary tweets. (DA leader John Steenhuisen will be pleased.)
Even after the NEC meeting, home affairs minister Aaron Motsoaledi described Mboweni’s comments as "ill-disciplined". Mzwandile Masina, the ANC mayor of Ekurhuleni, went further, saying Ramaphosa should "replace him" with his deputy David Masondo.
The thing is, Mboweni didn’t rebel against the collective decision; he simply voiced his disagreement. If more ANC members had similar courage, we might just have a noisier but more robust democracy.
At this point Mboweni still has political clout and isn’t afraid of taking politically unpalatable decisions
But it highlights, again, the ANC’s struggle between internal democracy and the notions of "discipline" and "loyalty" which are usually prioritised in liberation parties.
Back in 2017 former president Kgalema Motlanthe, indisputably one of the more ethical ANC veterans, was asked on BBC’s HardTalk whether "discipline" meant complete loyalty to the party, no matter what.
"No," he said, "it means your attitude towards work, towards obligations, towards service to the people — that’s what discipline means." The ANC’s constitution, Motlanthe said, dictates that disciplinary proceedings "must never be used for suppressing views".
Inevitably, Mboweni’s bravery and idiosyncrasies have won him many fans. And his pro-market positions on issues like SAA, legalising cannabis and privatising Eskom, suggest he is someone unconstrained by the ANC’s often-archaic ideological views. He gets how broken the economy is, and knows how to fix it.
And he has the sort of political clout that eluded some of his predecessors, like Nhlanhla Nene. For example, it’s unlikely Nene would have won the battle to push through zero increases for the public service right now — yet Mboweni may just win that fight.
Nonetheless, says one former Treasury official: "Nene had no political clout, but he was the best minister I worked with. Had it not been for him, we’d be sitting with a half-built nuclear power station, funded by Russian money. By contrast, Mboweni doesn’t often seem to be present when critical decisions are made."
Many economists say the same, questioning why key roles in the Treasury are still in the hands of people acting in the position, and why decisions take so long.
They ask if Mboweni’s heart is still in it, given the undercurrent of reluctance in statements about giving up his freedom. As my colleague Peter Bruce put it, Mboweni "seems miserable".
It would be a disaster if he left now. But when he does decide to call it quits, who could replace him?
Masondo, who comes from a Marxist background but with commendations from those who’ve worked with him, is the obvious replacement. But his provocative statement that the Reserve Bank should buy government bonds directly has already made many uneasy.
"You could also appoint someone like Naledi Pandor, who is senior, broad-minded and less ideologically driven, and is broadly accepted within the ANC," says the former Treasury official. "But Masondo wouldn’t be the worst choice: he’s a team-player, willing to take decisions that he know will erode his credibility with the Left."
But right now, Mboweni has a mountain on his plate, finalising his "supplementary budget" and finding the remaining R100bn which the government needs to plug the R280bn revenue shortfall expected this fiscal year.
At this point it’s a virtue that Mboweni still has political clout, and isn’t afraid of taking politically unpalatable decisions, even if it riles the ideologues in his party. If SA is to survive Covid-19 economically, he’ll need the latitude to make many more of those kinds of decisions.
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