Don’t waste a good crisis, the saying goes, and that’s perhaps the best way to look at the volcanic political economy of the Donald Trump presidency in the US.
Trump’s insistence that America’s interests come first is understandable in principle but looks to be seriously misdirected in practice. When his shotgun tariffs of 25% on all imports to the US from anywhere (or not, depending on his whims) begin to flow through negatively to American consumers and jobs, there will have to be a reassessment.
Meanwhile, Trump’s shock treatment has served the useful purpose of forcing his trade partners to consider what is in their best interest. They can no longer rely on the comforts of the post-World War 2 consensus, with relationships that have evolved and settled over decades.
This may be a golden opportunity for South Africa’s businesses, economic sectors and the government to work together. It is a time to define our interests afresh and decide what has to be done to promote them.
Trump’s shock treatment has served the useful purpose of forcing his trade partners to consider what is in their best interest
A great first step would be to acknowledge that we’re all on the same side. Since it came to power in 1994, the ANC has displayed an instinctive, almost visceral mistrust of the private sector. It seems to see business at best as a monolithic entity separate from, and unsupportive of, the state; at worst, as an enemy whose pursuit of profit is resented and must be undermined at every turn.
In fact, what we call “business” is certainly not monolithic. And what used to be called “big business”, where certain corporations like Anglo American played a coherent, conscious political role beyond their business activities, no longer exists. Yet the private sector, in its endless variety, is still viewed with suspicion. Attempts at helping the state achieve its aims — as with proposed modifications to the National Health Insurance scheme — are stubbornly rebuffed.
There are times when the ANC appears not to be aware that it has been in government for 30 years. When President Cyril Ramaphosa rues the years of state capture and corruption or scolds the municipal leaders of Joburg for letting the city fall into disgrace and decay, he speaks as if another party had been in power all these years.
The ANC also seems to think that the economy has nothing to do with it, beyond the technocratic exercise of the national budget. As veteran consultant Moeletsi Mbeki put it in Business Times at the weekend: “How do we make the black political leadership understand that the South African economy is a national asset, not a white people’s asset that they should milk for their benefit?”
Schizophrenia also seems to infect our international relations. Even under a president like Barack Obama, the US has always been pilloried by the ANC as imperialist and colonialist (labels that, ironically, are suddenly seeming very accurate). Yet China’s deliberate building of influence and economic reach in Africa — through finance rather than physical conquest — has been welcomed naively, instead of being seen as a new form of “coloanialism”.
The Trump frenzy, if responded to calmly, may just have placed us at a tipping point as a country and an economy. The ANC, as the senior partner in the GNU, will survive and thrive if it leads the way to being a socially caring champion of responsible capitalism, doing everything it can to make life easier for business and going into partnerships with the private sector wherever possible. What’s not to support?
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.