To celebrate the increase in the pass rate for the national senior certificate (popularly known as matric) from 82% in 2023 to 87% in 2024 is an understandable reaction from a government that is desperate to be seen to be improving a widely failing school system, especially given the vast proportion of the national budget that is spent on it.
It is true that, year on year, the pass rate — as it has been defined for many years — has steadily improved. However, the results conceal a chronic overall disaster in our schools.
The first point, which should be obvious but is seldom remarked on, is that the national matric pass rate should be at least 99%. This is not an unreasonable or unrealistic expectation. If you pass grade 10 and grade 11, this should indicate that you are ready for grade 12. Throughout the school system, passing one grade is supposed to be an indicator of capability at the next level. The content in grade 12 is not a giant step ahead of previous grades in terms of difficulty or volume of work — it’s really just the final stage.
There are a few high-performing state schools that routinely achieve a pass rate of 98%-100%, which usually means just one or two of their candidates have failed. Individuals from these schools who pass with multiple distinctions in the high 80s and 90s can usually gain admission to demanding university courses in South Africa and abroad. At the top end, then, the national exam is a fairly reliable predictor of tertiary success.
But an 87% matric pass rate tells us that 13% of candidates – about 91,000 of the class of 2024 – should have failed grade 11 in 2023, and in many cases grade 10 before that
But an 87% matric pass rate tells us that 13% of candidates — about 91,000 of the class of 2024 who wrote the exam — should have failed grade 11 in 2023, and in many cases grade 10 before that. This means that many schools are pushing pupils through, leaving them progressively worse equipped the higher they go. And it’s not as if the minimum barriers are demanding. In grades 10 to 12, it is possible to pass with three of the seven subjects below 40% and one of those below 30%.
The lower you go in the system, the more likely it seems that children are simply waved through. Many arrive at high school with primary school reports that are at best unhelpful and at worst downright deceitful. Many thousands are functionally illiterate and innumerate, and are up to six years behind where they should be. Unless they are lucky enough to gain admission to well-resourced schools that can spend time and money on helping them to catch up, they are educationally doomed.
The second crucial point to understand in interpreting the matric results is closely linked to the first. Since the 1990s, the proportion of children enrolled each year in grade 1 who never reach grade 12 has been routinely higher than 40%. According to the official statistics, 1,222,851 pupils entered Grade 1 in 2013 — so more than 517,000, or 42%, dropped out before writing matric in 2024. Added to the 90,000 who wrote and failed, that produces a “real” 2024 pass rate of about 50%, not 87%.
Many of those who do pass will nevertheless not find a place in any form of tertiary training; most of those who failed or dropped out have little chance of getting any kind of job. Every year a similar number is added to the economy.
While the pockets of excellence in public education are being maintained, perhaps slowly increased, much of the system is still drifting in a sea of hopelessness.
To address the education crisis, the first step is to stop pretending.
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