With less than a week to go before the nail-biting US election, the FM is dismayed to see respected newspapers The Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times fail to endorse Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
Not only do both publications have a tradition of endorsing a presidential candidate, but both have reported extensively on the damage that Republican nominee Donald Trump poses to democratic values, the rule of law and international alliances should he return to the White House.
It’s not that the journalists at these newspapers lack bravery, but that their billionaire owners — Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and biotech tycoon Patrick Soon-Shiong — didn’t want to piss off a volatile guy like Trump, so they exercised their veto. What a sad day for journalism that young pop singer Taylor Swift (who endorsed Harris in September) has shown more integrity and fearless independence than these two publications.
Journalists at both papers have resigned in protest, with the head of editorials at the LA Times, Mariel Garza, saying: “Staying silent isn’t just indifference, it is complicity.”
South Africans know this only too well, having witnessed how state capture was enabled by the silence of people in powerful positions.
The point is that leading media must take a stand. For what it’s worth, the FM unreservedly endorses Vice-President Harris, not just because Trump is a racist, sexist moron but because a Trump win would be bad for the global economy.
Trump has promised a 60% increase in tariffs on nonvehicle imports from China should he become president, as well as a 10% across-the-board levy on all imports into the US — measures which are likely to impede US growth and raise US inflation.
And if he is in a position to cut corporate taxes and extend other fiscal stimulus measures as promised, the likely upshot is higher US rates and a stronger dollar, which would make life more difficult for emerging markets such as South Africa.
If Trump assumes office, South Africa will also likely lose its duty-free access to the US which it has enjoyed since the inception of the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa) in 2001.
South Africa’s exports to the US topped $14bn in 2023, with about a third of those entering duty-free under Agoa. But because US duties are typically very low, Agoa saves us only about R2bn a year. So its potential loss would not be devastating.
Perhaps more concerning is that a Trump presidency would be bellicose and unpredictable. At worst it could usher in a global trade war and accelerate the process of the world splitting into two trade and geopolitical blocs.
In this event, the advice from the World Bank to emerging markets is to “reform and open up” and don’t choose sides. The obvious danger for South Africa, which enjoys a special relationship with China by virtue of its Brics membership, and has a history of clumsy diplomacy, is that it will find itself caught in the middle.
On the other hand, Trump is one of the few world leaders who is unlikely to take umbrage over President Cyril Ramaphosa calling Russia a “valued ally” at the recent Brics summit, given Trump’s own bromance with the Russian president.
All of which just goes to show how weird life would be under Trump — someone once described by his former generals as “the most dangerous person in the country”. What could possibly go wrong? Viva Harris!
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