It’s a walloping any which way you look at it: down a monstrous 17 percentage points; down 3.6-million votes; down 71 parliamentary seats. That’s the ANC, after winning just 40.2% of the national vote in last week’s election — its worst showing ever and the first time it’s lost its absolute majority in parliament.
At the provincial level, things aren’t much better for the ruling party — it’s lost its grip on two of the country’s three biggest economies, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, while the third, the Western Cape, remains in DA hands. It’s lost the Northern Cape by a fraction.
It’s an astounding comedown for a liberation party that has had a stranglehold on power since it was first elected in 1994.
The ANC has managed to be gracious in the face of this electoral drubbing, thanking South Africans for demonstrating the strength and vibrancy of democracy in the country, while recognising voters’ concerns, frustrations and dissatisfaction. It has acknowledged shortcomings in governance and delivery, and has promised “to form a government that reflects the will of the people, that is stable and that is able to govern effectively”. Which would be nice for a change.
What that government is actually going to look like, however, has the country — and financial markets — on tenterhooks.
While party secretary-general Fikile Mbalula has been emphatic that trying to remove Cyril Ramaphosa as president is a nonstarter in coalition talks, it’s not clear that the president is safe from the factions in his own party and will not be pushed out from within. And whoever steps into that void is certain to be less market friendly than Ramaphosa at the outset.
A best-case scenario would see a tie-up of some sort with the DA and IFP — both centrist parties that uphold the principles of constitutionalism
For the moment, there may be support building within the ANC for a “confidence-and-supply arrangement”, News24 reports. That would result in an ANC minority government, with partners offering support on important votes, such as electing the president and passing the budget. The ANC could retain control of the executive, while its partners would take up parliamentary positions such as portfolio committee chairs and speaker of the National Assembly.
A best-case scenario would see a tie-up of some sort with the DA and IFP — both centrist parties that uphold the principles of constitutionalism. The hard part could be selling the arrangement to their constituencies; there are those in the ANC who consider working with the DA anathema, and vice versa. In this instance, a confidence-and-supply arrangement could make sense. Both parties would be at sufficient distance from each other to limit fallout among their constituencies, avoiding a rout at the next polls.
Of course, all options are on the table, and there’s nothing — short of common sense, perhaps — stopping the ANC from getting into bed with either the EFF (with the IFP), or the MK Party, or both. While the MK Party looks less likely, given its antipathy for a Ramaphosa presidency, all bets are off if he is pushed. However, there is said to be a serious lobby in the ruling party for a tie-up with the EFF. That puts property rights and constitutional amendments in the crosshairs. And investor flight.
The ANC may be spooked by its electoral performance. But this is the time for cool heads, not rash action. It should heed its own commitment to finding a coalition partner that would ensure both stability and effective governance. The DA is its best bet for that.
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