EDITORIAL: Why the Lady R report doesn’t add up

So, we’re told that a report by an independent panel led by retired judge Phineas Mojapelo has “cleared” South Africa of the serious claim that arms destined for Russia were loaded onto the sanctioned Lady R cargo ship in Simon’s Town last December.

However, President Cyril Ramaphosa says that report will remain under lock and key due to “national security concerns”. It’s the kind of decision likely to only raise further questions, doing nothing to rebuild trust between the government and an increasingly sceptical electorate.

Given the diplomatic tension between the US and South Africa over the Lady R, after ambassador Reuben Brigety made the accusation on May 11, Ramaphosa’s clipped media statement can’t be the end of it. 

The fallout back in May was immense: the rand tanked, US senators made threatening noises about cancelling the preferential trade deal Agoa, and opprobrium was heaped on South Africa. So, if this is unwarranted, what exactly does Ramaphosa stand to lose by declassifying that report?

To not do so, at this point, stinks. Instead, we’re given only what the president deems we’re mature enough to handle. On Sunday night, he told the country that no evidence had been found that weapons were loaded onto the ship, and those who made those allegations failed to submit evidence to the panel.

While this result was expected in some quarters, given South Africa’s depleted capacity to produce arms, its evident sympathies towards Russia — it is one of the few countries unwilling to condemn Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 — left many unsure. 

Instead, we’re given only what the president deems we’re mature enough to handle

In this context, many curious statements were made by Ramaphosa on the Lady R report. In particular, he said that revealing contents of the shipment that South Africa had obtained from Russia would endanger the lives of defence force troops elsewhere in Africa.

Experts are puzzled by this. Analyst Darren Olivier of African Defence Review says South African arms deals are tightly regulated, and all pass through the National Conventional Arms Control Committee (NCACC) — which reports to parliament. 

Yet these reports are released publicly, every quarter. So why hold back this information?

Ramaphosa also said the shipment on the vessel dated back to 2018. But according to Olivier, there was no permit issued for a Russian purchase by the NCACC for 2018, only one in 2019 and another in 2020. And anyway, those orders were for pretty run-of-the-mill ammunition, and certainly not anything which could imperil the lives of soldiers by publicising it. In the absence of clarity, the assumption is that the order was potentially finalised in 2018 and the permits issued in the following two years, which could explain its delivery at the end of 2022.

Ramaphosa said the Mojapelo panel found that all relevant permits were obtained, but it did make “recommendations” on the NCACC and on “improvement of communication between ministers and government officials, including the adequacy of the relevant administrative processes”.

But if all was above board, why are any recommendations being made? What are they?

In the absence of facts, sceptics will believe that Ramaphosa is attempting to hide another example of his administration’s eye-watering incompetence.

And why did Ramaphosa even wait until after Brigety went public to appoint this “independent panel”, after he first heard these claims in January, during a visit by US treasury secretary Janet Yellen?

These are just some of the questions that don’t add up, but there are more — such as why did the Lady R dock in Simon’s Town with its transponders off, under the cover of darkness?

It is likely that the answer to many of these questions relates to the strange geopolitical dance South Africa is attempting as it goofs its way through the diplomatic jungle. But with the report hidden, the public has no clue — and maybe that face-saving lurch for secrecy is the idea.