What is going to happen to the Springboks? They play England on Saturday following narrow losses to Ireland and France on this (UK) autumn tour, and having absolutely smashed Italy 63-21 last Saturday. The English will be hard to beat at Twickenham.
More to the point, though, what is going to happen to Rassie Erasmus, the actual Springbok coach? Officially the SA Rugby director of rugby, he is mostly concerned with the Springboks, as the mournful performances of the South Africa “A” team on this tour have made clear.
Banned from his official match duties for Saturday by World Rugby for his continuing criticisms on social media of refereeing decisions against the Springboks after the games against Ireland and France, Erasmus has gone eerily quiet. He apparently didn’t pitch for an event he was due to address in Genoa before the Italian game and it’s highly unlikely he’ll be anywhere in the crowd at Twickenham on Saturday.
What is increasingly clear, though, is the very large question mark over whether he will ever run the Springboks again. There’s a World Cup in France next September and October. Will Erasmus still be director of rugby then? If he isn’t, you can be sure his close physiotherapist friend Jacques Nienaber, nominally official head coach, won’t be there either.
What are the chances? I’m no rugby expert but I’m a fan and I can call a few people. All of them reckon the Erasmus era is, on balance, over. They cite deep anger in World Rugby, which, having banned Erasmus after his lengthy video criticising Australian referee Nic Berry in the first Test against the British and Irish Lions in July last year, has now banned him again, for two matches.
Erasmus’s many fans will write off World Rugby. But at their peril. It may well be an “old boys’ club”, but it runs the game and despite us having a very good team in the Springboks, we are not that important in the future that World Rugby has in mind. What it wants is to get rugby played to large crowds in the US (an effort just damaged by the failure of the US to qualify for France 2023) and in Asia and more of Europe.
That’s where the money is. South Africa, even if we win the World Cup next year, will struggle to host a World Cup for the next 50 years. We’ve no electricity and no money, and you can’t always drink the water.
It isn’t clear that World Rugby has had its final say on Erasmus, and the fact that SA Rugby has remained quiet on the Irish and French Twitter performances will not go down well.
I’m told SA Rugby is waiting for the game against England to pass and that it will then act against Erasmus, either disciplining him or firing him, for bringing the South African brand into disrepute. I have not spoken to anyone who has seen his contract, but it is almost certain to contain clauses surrounding the protection of the Springbok brand.
Almost, because Erasmus and SA Rugby CEO Jurie Roux and SA Rugby itself all use the same lawyer. Roux, who is close to Erasmus, leaves at the end of this year, to become a consultant. It is hard to say where Mark Alexander, recently re-elected as SA Rugby president, stands because he hasn’t said anything yet. But I’ll bet he is fuming. Has Erasmus damaged South African rugby?
He has, big time. His tweets are way out of line and his attempts to cover up their sarcasm as some sort of genuine attempt to learn from his team’s mistakes are transparently cynical. South Africans may disagree and cry victim, but World Rugby decides, not Erasmus and not SA Rugby. Coaches, administrators and, certainly, referees around the world have their heads in their hands.
By all accounts, though, Erasmus is convinced he was right to take to Twitter and he would not take kindly to any action against him by SA Rugby. He is reported to have a huge and generous contract, and if Alexander wants to wait for Roux to leave before taking action against him there would be a huge fight and a big payout.
And, in the process, more damage to the Springboks as the World Cup approaches. So, what to do?
His tweets are way out of line and his attempts to cover up their sarcasm as some sort of genuine attempt to learn from his team’s mistakes are transparently cynical
For the most part, Erasmus’s complaints about referees making mistakes are probably valid. But of course, he does not film, or at least comment on, unpunished Springbok transgressions, of which we must assume there are many in the course of a match. Rugby is almost impossibly fast and rough. Reffing must be a nightmare.
And while World Rugby may object to the way Erasmus picks on referees in public instead of using “proper channels”, the fact is that unless more precision is introduced into its policing, rugby will struggle to make headway in the way World Rugby wants. All it would take to set rugby back on its heels in a big way is for the winning team in the World Cup final next year to win a close match despite getting away with a variety of infringements of the laws of the game.
Also, rugby is nothing without officials, the ref and the linesmen and -women. World Rugby needs to be seen to protect them.
In all probability, Erasmus’s silence now is the quiet before a storm. SA Rugby is going to have to fire him unless he shows some form of public contrition and the likelihood of that happening is vanishingly slim. And if there is a fight it’ll happen where it all started, on Twitter. I hope SA Rugby has a very good social media agency on contract because Twitter is Erasmus’s favourite space.
In the end, though, he’ll probably have to go. Nienaber will go. The players will stay behind, wondering what on earth happens now. My guess is that Alexander would already be lining up Jake White to take the team to France for the World Cup. The last time he did that, in 2007, he won!
Erasmus’s talents as a transformative coach notwithstanding, South Africa’s player depth is of such a quality that even a stand-in coach with sufficient experience should be able to aim at a final. White has the right experience.
What we discovered against Italy is that Manie Libbok is the immediate answer to our need for a functioning flyhalf. His distribution of the ball is excellent and you can actually stay in the room when he takes a penalty. I would start him, with Damian Willemse at fullback and Willie le Roux on the bench for a near full second half. Twickenham is the perfect place to really put Libbok to the test.
Flyhalf, just about everyone agrees, is where we don’t have depth. Who knows whether Handré Pollard will be ready by next September. Even if he is, his form this year has been dodgy and, anyway, he struggles in his own half. Elton Jantjies has confidence-crippling problems off the field. If White were ever to take the squad to France, he’d take an as-yet uncapped Chris Smith, but we play Argentina, Australia and New Zealand once each before the World Cup and we have a friendly against Wales next August.
That’s plenty of time to blood Smith if Pollard doesn’t make it back.
All conjecture of course. Maybe Erasmus will see what he has to lose and make things right with World Rugby. But don’t bank on that happening. His feet are not on the ground. He answers to no-one.
I think he’s gone.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.