If I were President Cyril Ramaphosa’s chief of staff I’d hide the final Institute of Race Relations (IRR) election forecasts away from him. They do not make happy reading for the African National Congress ANC, no matter which wing, or faction, you might happen to be in.
The IRR released its final 2019 election predictions late this morning. They include polling up to and including last Saturday. Here is the best way to get into the report:
Or, to summarise, the IRR polling finds that the ANC is unlikely to get much more than 55% of the national vote; it will lose control of Gauteng province and may also lose KwaZulu-Natal. The Democratic Alliance DA will hold on to the Western Cape though it is losing white voters and the Economic Freedom Fighters EFF will gain ground almost everywhere.
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That is pretty much what I suggested in the Sunday Times yesterday and, while it is much more calamitous for the ANC than I would have thought possible, it makes much more sense to me than the ANC getting, as Ipsos has predicted, 61%. That’s way too high for the predicament the party now finds itself in. But the IRR researchers concede that this is easily the most fluid election ever in South Africa SA.
They have been tracking their numbers daily and in the Gauteng numbers particularly, you can see the tug of war between the ANC and the EFF being played out daily.
But, simply put, the IRR numbers break down like this: The national vote goes ANC 53%, DA 24% and EFF 14% (that is assuming a turnout of 70%, which would be more or less average over past elections).
In Gauteng, on a turnout of 71.7%, the ANC loses overall control (there is no scenario where it keeps control of the country’s richest province) to take just 41%, the DA takes 33% and the EFF 14%. As the clever poll-watcher Dawie Scholtz commented after he saw those numbers, “That’s Gauteng gone for good.” (For the ANC that is … It could in theory try to form a minority government in the province. It would be a political and economic catastrophe if it formed a formal coalition with the EFF in Gauteng.)
In the Western Cape on a turnout of 71.7% the DA holds on to control with 57% of the vote, the ANC takes 21% and the EFF just 5%. On the same turnout in KwaZulu-Natal the ANC scores a humiliating 48%, the DA 23%, the EFF 13% and the Inkatha Freedom Party 11%.
It needs to be noted that the margins of error built into the provincial forecasts are large — more than 6% in some cases. But even that isn’t going to save the ANC in Gauteng.
Assuming the IIR IRR polling has been as accurate it as its researchers claim, we will be a different country come this Thursday. Quite how different is impossible to say. The political parties will jostle and huddle behind our backs and we won’t know what deals are being done until long after they are over.
For myself, I find the IRR numbers shocking. I had not expected the ANC to do as badly, nor the EFF as well, as they predict. For the EFF to get to the 14% nationally would have meant that the party has persuaded well over one million new people to vote for it. I would have thought that was a near impossible task in one election cycle.
Still, as I say, the 61% percent Ipsos has given the ANC nationally looks equally at odds with the reality I think I see. The great thing is that we don’t have to wait much longer to know the truth. It’ll set us all free for a few weeks.
Like most South Africans I am still so outraged by the Court of Arbitration in Sport (Cas) and the IAAF for their collusion in deciding to force our best athlete, Caster Semenya, to reduce her testosterone levels before she can compete in certain events that I can barely think about it clearly.
Sport has always been about competition between people who are not equal. That’s why there’s always (or normally) only one winner. If everyone could run as fast as Usain Bolt or had flippers for feet like the Australian swimmer Ian Thorpe, how much fun would that have been?
Thank heavens the World Medical Association has warned doctors not to enforce the IAAF’s new gender rules. Not only would Caster face unknown consequences for chemically reducing her testosterone levels, but doctors who enforce the IAAF/Cas ruling would in fact be in breach of their codes of ethics.
What is worse, it turns out that the man in charge of the IAAF’s medical and anti-doping commission since 2016 is a guy called Dr Harold Abrahams. He’s a South African!
What I want is revenge. Stuff these people. We can all find a way to stand with Caster Semenya. The Springboks should kneel every time our national anthem is played at the World Cup in Japan as a gesture of solidarity with her. The Proteas should wear black armbands at the upcoming Cricket World Cup. Every match. And let the world know why. If Bafana Bafana could kneel in support at the African Cup of Nations it would be good too. And do it a lot (which would mean having to survive).
Semenya herself has the perfect answer to the Cas ruling at the weekend when she won the 800m in Doha. Asked if she’d take the drugs required to reduce her testosterone she said, basically, “no way”. Let’s all help her. I’ve been blown away by the support she has had from the international media, a small sampling of which I’ve collected here. Some of it may be behind paywalls. Here, for instance, is my alma mater, the Financial Times:
In contrast to the studied support of the FT, the Guardian was great, not once but twice. Here and here:
I particularly liked this in The Washington Post:
And, finally, the great New York Times always says it like it is. Well, most of the time. The reference to Semenya’s dignity at the end is a fitting tribute. I am so proud to belong to the same nation she does.
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