PETER BRUCE: The beginning of the end of Zuma’s reign

President Jacob Zuma must by now be growing weary of the weekend visits from the African National Congress’s new Top 6 officials. They were there — again — this last weekend, asking him to perhaps, when he has the time, consider stepping down as the head of state.

What part, Zuma must by now be asking himself, of the word “no” do Cyril Ramaphosa, Gwede Mantashe, Paul Mashatile and David Mabuza not understand? Sure there are two other members of the Top 6, secretary-general and Free State premier Ace Magashule and deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte. But they support Zuma staying so they don’t ask.

The visit last night by the ANC officials to plead with Zuma to go will, I suspect, be the last. Another one would be absolutely pathetic. Go before the opening of parliament. Go before the budget, Go before the end of the summer, the winter, the year. Zuma, I am told, has been exquisitely polite in turning them down.

There was a curious thing last night. Mantashe, now ANC chairman, and Magashule left early. Social media reports said Ramaphosa and Mabuza stayed on after with Zuma. Then again, other reports said Ramaphosa wasn’t at the meeting at all.

Clearly there is a convoluted and delicate dance in progress in which the officials genuinely believe they are moving Zuma in a particular direction and will soon arrive at a real departure point.

But because they’ve spent so much time with him over the years they’ve forgotten how self-absorbed he is. He likes the chat, thinks much of it amusing. But they are barely out of the grounds of the president’s guesthouse before he has forgotten them. They’re the ones with a problem, not him.

Sure, Zuma’s time is running out. Everyone knows that. But how it happens dictates what is doable when he goes. So everything is important. Thursday is when he will put his critics to the test. Parliament opens and as is his wont he will give his state of the nation address at 7pm, when people are home and able to watch on TV. It was a clever decision, years back, by Zuma to do this. At 2pm when these things used to happen, his constituency was working, not watching.

So they’ll get to see him called to the podium to deliver his address and outline his government’s plans for the year. When he does, a number of things could happen, none of them good for Cyril Ramaphosa. First, the Economic Freedom Fighters will almost certainly try to prevent him speaking, arguing that they don’t recognise his authority. That will delay things by up to an hour. The world will see them being manhandled out of the chamber by parliamentary policemen.

If the EFF MPs are then expelled and run into Zuma supporters outside the National Assembly building there could be fighting. The police will fire rubber bullets and stun grenades. There’ll be blood and screaming.

Inside the chamber, with the EFF removed, Zuma will cough his way through his speech. He doesn’t have to clear it with cabinet colleagues or the party leadership, though it is usually wise to do that. There is some suggestion that Ramaphosa will have had a major role in crafting whatever speech is delivered and if that is the case some good common sense with shine through and be easy to spot.

But left to himself who knows what Zuma is capable of? Having declared tertiary education free for the poor on a whim in December, he could reel off a list of revolutionary and unaffordable (socially or financially) measures on land, traditional leaders, infrastructure promises and mining legislation on Thursday. Jacob’s Last Stand. His legacy. There you are folks, this is how good it could have been.

The next thing, obviously, is that Zuma is then tied up in the political equivalent of a straitjacket and carried, wriggling furiously, from the parliamentary precinct and loses office either through a party recall, a motion of no-confidence (there’s one scheduled for February 22, the day after the budget) or impeachment, which would cause him to lose all his benefits and which no doubt he keeps a beady eye on. Can’t lose the benefits.

But it may not come to that. What if he survives the February 22 no-confidence motion? (Brought by the EFF by the way.) All it needs is a simple majority against him and he would have to go, though the ANC NEC could re-propose him. But is there a majority against him?

Assume the ballot will be secret, like the last one, which Zuma narrowly won. The party would have to issue some guidance to its MPs. Does it seriously urge them to back a motion by a party dedicated to its destruction and which a few days earlier had again brought the dignity of the National Assembly into disrepute? Are there seriously enough ANC MPs to push a vote over the 50% mark?

Zuma, I promise, thinks he can survive a no-confidence vote. So don’t hold your breath. I fact, I would not be surprised to see him becoming more active now that he has been cautious and quiet since Ramaphosa’s election as ANC leader in December.

If I were advising him I would take a serious interest in solving Cape Town’s imminent water catastrophe. It’s a national emergency, something a working president should be seen to be on top of. Go visit schools and hospitals and emergency water points and desalination plants under construction. Be presidential, show interest and concern. Promise funds.

Buy time. That’s all Zuma needs to do. The longer he’s left standing the greater the likelihood his critics will make a mistake. That will be all he needs.

Yes, there’s a special meeting of the ANC’s National Working Committee (NWC) today to talk about his removal or departure from office. The NWC is a shrunken version of the NEC and Ramaphosa has slim majorities on both. The question is whether Zuma can be prevented from giving the state of the nation address on Thursday.

I think it’s too late now. Zuma fought for a little more time and, barring a miraculous discovery of cojones by the NWC, the NEC, the Top 6 or the ANC itself, Jacob will be on his feet in parliament on Thursday night. See you there.