It can sometimes seem we South Africans live in a permanent state of apocalypse. We don’t really. Imagine the shock to normal balanced Americans of Donald Trump. Still, we are at an important political inflection point now. The annual budget will be delivered tomorrow by a man the president of the country wants to fire. The president wants to reshuffle his cabinet for two reasons. He needs to find a job for his former wife and chosen successor as head of the ruling party, and he wants to bring into cabinet a man close to his (the president’s) cronies and who he thinks would be capable of running national treasury. The forthcoming reshuffle, which will occur, will be Zuma’s last real bite of the political cherry before he is replaced as party leader this December (or earlier, possibly) and becomes a titular head of state for 18 months more. He has to make it count.
Do not be surprised, therefore, if he goes for broke. His successor choice, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, is not universally popular in the party. But he has to get her into the top job. They have children together. She will keep him out of jail — that is the one single thing that our politics are about. Of the many iterations of a possible cabinet reshuffle after Pravin Gordhan delivers his budget tomorrow there is one that stands out. Of course, there is a big call for Zuma to make before he shuffles his cards. Should he just pass? An unpopular reshuffle now could blow not only him, but also Dlamini-Zuma out of the water. If he is confident, however, he will move and, I believe, he will move big. The insane exchange rate fixing charges that some banks now find themselves at the centre of, have given Zuma renewed confidence and have opened up political space for him, and closed it down for Gordhan, just as the banks are most vulnerable to political assault.
So, how’s this for a reshuffle? Zuma removes Gordhan as finance minister as well as his deputy, Mcebisi Jonas. He deploys deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa, to become finance minister. Brian Molefe, former Eskom chief and Gupta captive, becomes deputy finance minister and chairman of the Public Investment Corp (PIC), of which he was once CEO.
Dlamini-Zuma becomes deputy president, ready to take the reins should Zuma decide it best to leave office early.
It is just a thought, but how else does Zuma put Dlamini-Zuma firmly in the lead for leadership of the party? Ramaphosa could refuse but he has been so bland and so ineffective a brake on Zuma for so long that I begin to suspect that he may be vulnerable to blackmail. In theory, even if Ramaphosa went to finance (which Zuma could trumpet as a sound decision) he could prevent his deputy from leading the PIC board but Zuma’s calculation is that he wouldn’t. We just have to wait and see. No-one in this story knows what is going on and I’m sure that even Zuma, who does, must find himself changing his mind all the time.
Anyway, I have a strong list of stories in the List today, most of which describe the tight corner we are in. In Daily Maverick today Stephen Grootes nicely captures the moment and the tension. And Business Day deputy editor Carol Paton despairs for Gordhan and treasury as they prepare to announce the budget. Everyone knows the president doesn’t want him there and where treasury was once the hope of an inclusive march towards higher growth, she argues, that dream is shattered and treasury can’t put it together again.
The decision to make Molefe an MP has really got people excited. I don’t think it is at all surprising. Sure, former public protector Thuli Madonsela in her State of Capture report, put him firmly in the Gupta compound but now that his secret is out, and that it is clear he and the president have the same friends, well, what’s to hide. Molefe is smart and swashbuckling. Where Gordhan will see a mountain of debt, Molefe will tunnel through it and to hell with the consequences. That’s Zuma’s kind of guy. That’s radical. Brian the Borrower beats Pravin the Prudent any time. Here’s Stephen Grootes again on the risk Zuma might be about to take. And I loved this piece from Ranjeni Munusamy, also in Daily Maverick. She reminds us that for all his swagger, Molefe is a rather thin-skinned fellow who cried at a press conference after being outed as a Guptarite. It is one thing to bully or impress (he seems to have done both at Eskom) your way through a corporate job. It is quite another to become a politician. Is he ready for Julius Malema? Or John Steenhuisen? I doubt it.
And here was another neat little hint that Zuma has bigger plans for finance.
Ray Hartley, meanwhile, came across a neat and relatively brief analysis of just how far our financial position has reversed under Zuma’s presidency. If I were Molefe I’d be wary of making myself the guy who’s supposed to fix this. Read this, it’s really helpful.
As for the rates-rigging banks, it is hard to speak about them without swearing. Yet, as Stuart Theobald points out, we have to support them in their political battle with the president’s cronies. This is a fine piece.
And isn’t it great when civil society puts up a fight? The Organisation Undoing Tax Abuse (Outa) led the charge against E-tolls. Now, today, they published a document detailing a complaint they’re taking to the competition commission. Their target? Eskom. Couldn’t happen to nicer people.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.