BRUCE'S LIST: Has the Gupta lifeboat already sunk?

Bruce’s List: A guide to informed reads.

It did not take long for the ANC to pile into former public protector Thuli Madonsela after the Mail & Guardian published details of a draft report she had done (but never released) on the bailout made by the Reserve Bank to Bankorp before and during its acquisition by Absa in the late 1980s and early 1990s. She should have released the report, the party cried. We want to see it now! Not surprisingly, Madonsela’s replacement, Busisiwe Mkhwebane, has had Madonsela’s draft on her desk and, as a result, it leaked.

That was probably the idea behind leaving it lying around in the first place. Leaking the “Absa lifeboat” as it is called is a neat little distraction for the Gupta crowd and their capture of the Zuma administration because it would prove that “white monopoly capital” had behaved equally badly. This, of course, ignores the hopes most South Africans had that a democratic SA would be an all-round improvement on apartheid SA, but it doesn’t matter.

The report, or the draft of it that leaked is, arguably, wrong in many critical details. Mainly it shows that Madonsela, who compiled the draft largely on her own, may have misunderstood the way the lifeboat worked. She spoke to former Bank governor Chris Stals, who is now suggesting her conclusions about how much Absa might owe the fiscus are just plain wrong. Stals might be many things to many people but he was an extremely gifted central banker and he would know of what he speaks. Perhaps it was Madonsela’s innate caution that stopped her releasing the report. Mkhwebane may regret her slip. Business Day’s Carol Paton (who else?) called Stals and came away with a sensational front page lead in the paper this morning. Sadly for the Guptas, they may have to search a little further for something to take public attention off themselves.

In Daily Maverick the ever-acidic Richard Poplak may not have had the benefit of a chat to Stals but he has a fine nose for bullshit and put it on glorious display in this piece. And this just goes to show it might sometimes be better to be quiet. 

There are no doubt many illegitimate millionaires from the last days of apartheid. Sanctions busting was easy and the margins were breathtaking. One day someone may have the patience to do a proper job and perhaps even recover some money. Soon you’ll be hearing a lot of noise about a report by a private intelligence company called Ciex, which tried to sell its (expensive) services to the new ANC government in the late 1990s. Its offer document lists the Bankorp saga as just one of a string of devious manipulations by departing white capital. As far as I know Ciex never came up with anything concrete but that won’t stop it being a lodestar for the useless. Nothing attracts the ANC more than a conspiracy theory. Here though is a more cheerful South African story.

Stephen Grootes is at Davos and attended the first get-together of the South African delegation, led by Cyril Ramaphosa after Jacob Zuma pulled out at the last moment. What is interesting is how the people Zuma will have sent to make sure Ramaphosa behaves sat through an entire and animated session without saying a thing. You’ll pick their names up towards the end of the piece.

British Prime Minister Theresa May, meanwhile, has had a stab at trying to bring some clarity to confused markets and citizens about what last June’s Brexit vote actually means. As expected, it means Britain will leave the EU, though on what terms British MPs will be allowed to vote. She doesn’t do a bad job in the circumstances but there’s a lot of guff here. You can’t become a different economy overnight, no matter how big and strong you are. The decision will set Britain back 30 years and I have no doubt it will cease to become a serious place of manufacture. A veiled threat to cut corporate taxes to near zero to attract business to the UK should the rest of the EU not play ball in the forthcoming negotiations is a red herring. What she cuts on one hand she’ll have to raise on the other. Still the Financial Times, strongly opposed to Brexit, found space in her speech to take a step back and say to itself and its constituency: “Well, ok, let’s get on with it.” A big moment this, for the FT. And, if you have the time, here is May’s speech in full. And here is The Daily Telegraph, very pro-Brexit, very pleased with it all.