The race to succeed President Cyril Ramaphosa in the ANC remains in its early stages, with groupings still hedging their bets.
There are several likely contenders for the top job: Deputy President Paul Mashatile, secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, first deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane and police minister Senzo Mchunu, who has been placed on a leave of absence.
The campaign from quarters within the ANC and outside it for businessman Patrice Motsepe to contest for the top spot continues, despite Motsepe himself this weekend saying he has no interest in the post. Motsepe would bolster the ANC’s support outside party ranks but would be a hard sell to internal power brokers already part of the networks backing established contenders.
ANC insiders question whether Motsepe would be willing to relinquish complete control of his business interests, as required by South African law. Ramaphosa placed his business holdings in a blind trust when he became deputy president in 2014. South African presidents and cabinet members may not undertake any other paid work, according to section 96 of the constitution.
Mashatile remains the clear front-runner, given that he is the deputy president. However, rumours have been circulating over the state of his health after he collapsed at an event in Tzaneen last year. The incident was attributed to heat, and his office said he was fine, but questions remain.
The FM understands that Mashatile’s image is also cause for concern as the ANC seeks to regain ground electorally. News24 reports have raised questions about the funding of his lifestyle.
However, the ANC Youth League pronouncement in the Sunday Times at the weekend that the ANC’s elective conference should be uncontested is viewed as tacit support for Mashatile. While under the control of a task team in 2022, when the ANC last elected leaders, the league was divided in its support between Ramaphosa and Zweli Mkhize. But it was unanimous in backing Mashatile as deputy president.
The FM understands that Mashatile’s supporters have approached international relations minister Ronald Lamola and Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane as possible contenders for deputy president on his slate. Lamola is an ANC leader to watch, given the weighty portfolios he has held — from justice to international relations, viewed as a promotion on his appointment in 2024.
Mokonyane was initially earmarked for the post of deputy to Mashatile, but sources now indicate that she is eyeing the top spot.
Mbalula’s candidacy has taken a knock, given his performance as secretary-general. He is seen as a “loose cannon” and a candidate citizens would find difficult to “take seriously”, say insiders.
Mchunu’s story is the most keenly watched at the moment.
He emerged as a possible contender after Ramaphosa backers began thinking of ways to limit the electoral damage caused by former president Jacob Zuma’s MK Party in KwaZulu-Natal, in particular, where it got 45% of the vote, as the ANC’s support fell from 54% in 2019 to 17% in 2024.
The grouping canvassed structures and communities in KZN to determine whether Mchunu could be successful at taking on MK in the next national election. They returned enthused, given Mchunu’s popularity there.
On the day KZN police commissioner Lt-Gen Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi held his explosive media briefing, accusing Mchunu and deputy national commissioner Lt-Gen Shadrack Sibiya of colluding with criminal cartels to disband the political killings task team, Mchunu was addressing an ANC event, drumming up support for the party in KZN.
While the allegations against him appear to have eliminated him from running, insiders say it is too early to make that call. His backers say he still stands a 50/50 chance, despite proceedings at the ad hoc committee in parliament and the Madlanga commission to probe Mkhwanazi’s allegations.
Insiders say that while Mkhwanazi is not aligned to Zuma, he has over the years been close to individuals who are now linked to MK. They argue that Mchunu being drawn into the war between interest groups in the police, just six months after being named police minister, could be politically motivated.
At the time of going to print, Mchunu was being grilled by MPs on his decision to disband the task team, a move which Mkhwanazi alleges was at the behest of criminal cartels, but one which the minister defended over two days before the committee.
Another potential contender from KZN, whose name has been linked to a top-six ANC position, is ANC chief whip Mdumiseni Ntuli, who lost out on the post of secretary-general to Mbalula in 2022.
Should the allegations against Mchunu be proven, Ntuli would be a candidate to watch for the post of president. However, should it emerge that Mchunu was unwittingly drawn into the police’s factional fights for political reasons, insiders argue that his campaign would resume and could even be bolstered.
“He could argue that it was an agenda to eliminate him, much like Zuma himself, and that could win him sympathy,” a source supporting Mchunu says.
While it is early in the race, what is already clear is the recognition that election as an ANC president will mean little if the party is obliterated electorally.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.