South African maize is back in the Far East export markets. These aren’t new territories for our maize; we typically export to them during seasons of abundance, like this one.
Last season, not a lot of maize was exported to the Far East. Our export activity focused on Africa. The region was hit by drought and needed maize more than other regions for staple food. South Africa channelled its maize exports, mainly white maize, to the continent.
South Africa was also hit by the drought, but we still had a relatively decent yield and benefited from supplies from the past season. This enabled South Africa to export more maize to Africa. Zimbabwe accounted for 56% of South Africa’s maize exports of 2.3Mt last year. Now we are back in the season of abundance.
Zambia has surplus maize, and Zimbabwe has a better yield, though it may still need about 700,000t of maize imports later in the season. Zambia, the second-largest maize producer in Southern Africa, has had a recovery in its 2024/2025 maize production (this season corresponds with the 2025/2026 marketing year), now estimated at 3.66Mt, up from 1.5Mt in the previous season, according to Zambian government data.
Zimbabwe’s 2024/2025 maize production is forecast at 1.3Mt, according to recent data from the Pretoria-based unit of the US department of agriculture. This is just more than twice the output from the previous season. Still, it is below the 2Mt Zimbabwe requires for its domestic annual consumption. So it may still import later in the year. South Africa and Zambia may be the major maize suppliers to Zimbabwe.
In South Africa, our maize production is at 15.03Mt, 17% higher than the crop for the 2023/2024 season. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of about 12Mt, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
Indeed, in the week of July 25, South Africa exported 63,897t of maize. About 79% was exported to Taiwan, and the rest to Southern Africa. This placed South Africa’s 2025/2026 maize exports at 428,975t, out of the expected seasonal exports of 2Mt. The current marketing year only ends in April 2026.
Of the 428,975t of South Africa’s maize exports in the first 13 weeks of the 2025/2026 marketing year, nearly half is for Far East markets (25% to Vietnam, 12% to Taiwan, and 11% to South Korea). These are South Africa’s traditional maize export markets, mainly yellow maize for animal feed. But we didn’t export during the years of drought. It is good to see them back buying our high-quality maize.
We will likely see more robust export activity later in the year once farmers have completed the harvest and there is grain in the silos for export.
Listen to the podcast for more insights.
* Richard Humphries, Sam Mkokeli, Nelisiwe Tshabalala and Amanda Murimba produce this podcast
* Wandile Sihlobo is chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa
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