South Africa’s 2024/2025 summer grains and oilseed production estimate was lifted again this month, by 2% from the June 2025 estimate to an expected 18.74Mt (up 21% year on year).
There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and decent area plantings. This ample harvest will likely add downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation.
The recent surge in maize prices was linked to the slow harvest process and quality issues, but that should be short-lived and does not change our view of potentially moderating prices.
A closer look at the data reveals that the monthly upward revisions were primarily in maize (+2%) and soybeans (+3%). Most other crops were roughly unchanged from the previous month. However, sunflower seeds and groundnuts were each lowered by 3% from last month.
South Africa’s maize harvest is now forecast at 15.03Mt, which is 17% higher than the crop for the 2023/2024 season. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of about 12Mt, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
Regarding oilseeds, the soybean harvest is estimated at 2.72Mt, representing a 47% year-on-year increase. Sunflower seeds are up 12% from the last season and are estimated at 708,300t.
The groundnut harvest is estimated at 61,389t (up 18% y/y), sorghum production at 137,970t (up 41% y/y) and the dry beans harvest at 74,299t (up 47%). The base effects and favourable agricultural conditions boosted the yields.
South Africa is experiencing a recovery season for its grains and oilseeds production, though some areas may face quality challenges, particularly white maize.
Still, the quality issues do not fundamentally change the available volume for milling acceptability and food supplies, though it may weigh on farmers’ profitability. We see the benefit of the solid harvest in generally softening commodity prices, now lower than last year, boding well for consumer food price inflation.
Listen to the podcast for more insights.
Richard Humphries, Sam Mkokeli, Nelisiwe Tshabalala and Amanda Murimba produce this podcast.
Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.
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