It is conceivable that the impasse over the national budget could put an end to the unity government in KwaZulu-Natal and catapult Jacob Zuma’s MK Party into power in South Africa’s second-largest province.
South Africa already has a nine-year report card on how Zuma wields power when he has access to state coffers.
The fragile provincial unity government, led by the IFP, has only a wispy majority, due in part to MK’s surprisingly strong showing in the 2024 election.
Of the 80 seats in the provincial legislature, it holds 37. The IFP has 15 seats, the ANC 14, the DA 11 and the National Freedom Party (NFP) one — a total of 41. This enabled a government of those four parties to take office, with the IFP’s Thami Ntuli as premier. The EFF has two seats and if it sides with MK, the administration has a precarious 41-39 majority.
The national budget logjam has again exposed the fragility of the GNU. At the time of going to press, talks between the ANC and the DA were continuing, but the ANC was also exploring other options to ensure finance minister Enoch Godongwana’s budget could be passed.
These national options include relying on parties from outside the GNU, including the EFF, ActionSA and Mmusi Maimane’s Build One South Africa. The quid pro quo for at least two of these parties — the EFF and ActionSA — is for the ANC to boot the DA out of the GNU.
While some in the ANC view working with the EFF as a “hostile” option, there are those who believe it is more palatable than co-operating with the “demanding” DA.
If the DA left the GNU, it would have to decide if it will continue playing a decisive role in the KZN government, where its own Francois Rodgers holds the powerful position of finance MEC.
This would be a tough call for the DA. It could opt to remain in the provincial unity government and continue to push forward with the promising reforms already put in place by Ntuli, Rodgers and others. It could withdraw from the provincial government but offer to vote with it on a needs basis. Or it could withdraw completely.
Zuma would be back in his element, able to dole out patronage
That third option would mean that the IFP would have to seek MK support to run the province — or the ANC and MK could work together to form the government, excluding the DA, IFP and NFP (and EFF). However, the IFP is unlikely to work with MK in KZN, given that they have similar constituencies.
An ANC/MK coalition may end up running the country’s second-largest province. This would have far-reaching consequences, nationally and provincially, for the economy, for investor sentiment and for business confidence.
Zuma’s party is home to many individuals against whom damning evidence was heard by the state capture commission of inquiry. They include former senior railway executives Brian Molefe, Siyabonga Gama and Lucky Montana.
MK wants to scrap the constitution and Zuma has expressed a preference for voting through drums rather than ballot boxes.
The party has just lodged another legal challenge to the 2024 election results, arguing that it won with a two-thirds majority but was cheated out of victory by alleged shenanigans at the Electoral Commission of South Africa.
In any case, MK’s more than 2-million votes introduced the prospect of populist, anti-democratic and anti-constitutional forces taking control of some provinces, and potentially the country, in future.
As one senior ANC leader puts it, the MK alliance option is a “nuclear one”, where paying R56 for a single roll of toilet paper would become the norm.
MK has been weak as the official opposition in parliament, and even more so in KZN, where internal battles have apparently kneecapped any chance of it becoming an effective opposition.
But this could change should it have a shot at running the KZN government, with its R158bn budget. Zuma would be back in his element, able to dole out patronage not only in the province but across the country, shoring up his party’s political support and standing.
It would also mark a psychological victory and probably push more ANC voters into Zuma’s arms. The ANC could conceivably be wiped out in the province.
The first proper electoral test will be next year’s local government elections, which will almost certainly see MK take over many KZN councils (with the patronage opportunities that go with office). That would in turn provide further momentum for the party heading into the 2029 national election.
This week, as budget negotiations continued, ANC and DA insiders began reckoning with the possibility that the outcome of the impasse could fundamentally shift the country’s politics.
The GNU in its current form, including the ANC and the DA, may seem the most logical way to proceed, for both parties and for the good of the country. It is to be hoped they both know that the consequences of their inability to find each other, and soon, could be felt in South Africa for decades to come.
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