The emergence of populist political parties in South Africa is not necessarily cause for concern in itself — the problem is more than 8-million people voted for the three biggest of them in May.
Lawson Naidoo, director of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution, tells the FM that support for parties falling into the “populist” category soared past 25% for the first time in the 2024 election.
Apart from the blatantly populist outfits such as Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, Julius Malema’s EFF and Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance, Naidoo sees “significant elements of populism” in ActionSA and the African Transformation Movement.
While populism is on the march globally, the surge in support for populists in South Africa in May was a departure from previous elections. An analysis of the previous national election, by Prof Collette Schulz-Herzenberg of Stellenbosch University and Robert Nyenhuis of California State University — “Failure to Launch? The lack of populist attitudinal activations in the 2019 election” — found that while many South Africans held “populist views”, their overriding concerns were pragmatic, linked to governance, the provision of services and economic wellbeing.
So was the election this year an anomaly, or is populism the new normal? MK’s dramatic entry, becoming the third-largest party on its electoral debut, illustrates that voter decisions are complex and not simply based on party policies or manifestos.
“It’s all about personality. Soundbites have a way of making voters do crazy things,” Naidoo says.
“Voting for MK is counterintuitive … The party is fundamentally undemocratic and anticonstitutional,” he says.
“It does illustrate that people are not averse to voting for something that does not uphold the basic tenets of democracy and more broadly represents a fundamental attack on the notion of democracy.”
The ANC must take responsibility for that. Some of the early attacks came from inside the ANC … the constitution was scapegoated for the ills in our country
— Lawson Naidoo
The swing to the anticonstitutionalist MK could have been fuelled by several factors, including anger at the ANC’s treatment of Zuma and his appeal to Zulu group identity, and it remains to be seen if the party can sustain its momentum.
Naidoo says the “unequivocal support” for the constitution in the statement of intent signed by the government of national unity partners — which received the majority of electoral support — “stands us in good stead”.
But we cannot let our guard down when it comes to protecting the constitution, which was under attack long before Zuma zeroed in on it in his campaigning this year.
“The ANC must take responsibility for that. Some of the early attacks came from inside the ANC … The constitution was scapegoated for the ills in our country,” Naidoo says.
To prevent a further slide into populism, the political centre must hold, and for now, that centre is the GNU. It is essential that the GNU begins showing that it can deliver on alleviating the dire reality most South Africans face daily, which will mean growing the economy and reining in the cost of living. People need to experience the shift in governance where it matters most, in their pockets and in their daily lives.
“We need them [the GNU] to get it right … To the rest of us, it is obvious, but they have not approached this with any sense of urgency. They will be sorely punished if they don’t get it right,” Naidoo says.
“The centre in the ANC must hold.”
The electoral conference in 2027 will be telling — if the party veers towards closer alignment with MK, the consequences will be dire for both the ANC and the country.
“It can only lead to the total destruction of the ANC,” Naidoo says. “Entering a coalition with MK would make Zuma’s party a significant player and in that destructive form of negotiated power, the ANC would be swallowed.”
Most of the headlines about the GNU focus on the conflicts within it over such issues as the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act and National Health Insurance. It has not come up with a unified plan to grow the economy, create jobs and bring down the cost of essentials.
That the two main partners in the GNU are so preoccupied with ideological tussles does not inspire hope or confidence. There is still time for them to get down to the economic nitty-gritty, but failure to do so could push more voters into the arms of the populists.
And many South Africans are simply checking out of the democratic project completely by not pitching to vote.
The solution is in front of us, and the clock is ticking.
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