Politics is the shovel that dug the hole South Africa finds itself in — and it’s also the way to dig ourselves out of it.
The government of national unity (GNU) offers the best shot at getting governance to the level required to boost the economy and put South Africa back on the map among its peers. Better governance, along with sectoral interventions, could spur South Africa’s growth prospects.
“Instead of growing at an average of 2.4% from 2024 to 2043, growth could average 4.8%,” says Jakkie Cilliers, chair of the Institute for Security Studies and head of the ISS African Futures Innovation platform.
Cilliers, author of Fate of the Nation, cares deeply about the future of the country and the continent. He and his team forecast scenarios for development in various countries through research, dialogue and analysis, to provide resources to understand Africa’s potential.
The African Futures website is a treasure trove of data, providing, in South Africa’s case particularly, a mixed bag of scenarios — some rather grim.
For instance, South Africa’s GDP is expected to grow at a “relatively modest” 2.4% until 2043. Structural reforms to address persistent inequality, unemployment and deindustrialisation are urgent, Cilliers tells the FM.
South Africa’s GDP per capita peaked in 2013 and will only reach those levels again in 2036 on the current path. Poverty rates are expected to decline only modestly from 63% in 2023 to 57% by 2043.
Zuma was a huge boon for South Africa … he broke the ANC’s stranglehold on the country
— Jakkie Cilliers
South Africa’s “poor human capital factor” is a significant drag on growth — there are high levels of severe and acute malnutrition, inequality and disease.
It is an alarming set of statistics, given that inequality and poverty provide a breeding ground for populist, undemocratic political movements trying to capitalise on a miserable citizenry. Jacob Zuma’s MK Party is one of those, promising an anticonstitutional nirvana, even though he led this constitutional democracy for nine years.
Still, Cilliers says, looked at in one way, Zuma was “a huge boon for South Africa”.
“He broke the ANC’s stranglehold on the country … As a result, South Africa entered coalition territory five years earlier than expected.”
Governance stands out as the key factor in reversing South Africa’s bleak prospects over the next decade.
“The GNU can play a critical role, ensuring policy coherence, accountability and effective implementation,” Cilliers says. “Our better governance scenario has the largest positive impact on poverty reduction and is behind manufacturing and free trade in improving GDP by 2043.”
Unfortunately, the GNU is already having to negotiate severe turbulence.
The ANC itself is facing a revolt from the SACP over the inclusion of the DA, and Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi, the ANC’s provincial chair, has spoken out against the exclusion of MK and the EFF — partners he would prefer to the DA.
The GNU has become a site of struggle in the ANC’s succession race — with Lesufi and Gauteng backing Deputy President Paul Mashatile to ascend to the presidency. Mashatile’s rivals for the top spot include secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, who drove the GNU negotiation process from the party’s side.
Lesufi and those opposed to the GNU are apparently unmoved by the fact that it was thanks to the Zuma presidency that the ANC lost the support of the black middle class in Gauteng.
The GNU has become a site of struggle in the ANC’s succession race
In any event, opposition to the GNU within the ANC and the tripartite alliance is not about its form, content or identity, but about power and patronage. It is about ANC succession and who is most likely to ease the path for a generation of ANC leaders who have been waiting for their turn at the trough of state resources.
For Cilliers, an ANC tie-up with MK and the EFF would be disastrous for different reasons. “These parties have shown that they do not believe in the rule of law and the constitution,” he says.
Still, Cilliers sees the ANC’s fortunes improving in the next election, as MK would lose “some of its bounce”.
What he is uncertain of is whether the DA will break through its glass ceiling or remain a 20% party, either in opposition or in future coalition governments.
“The GNU needs to last until at least 2034 … The country needs stability and predictability, and the current arrangement is the clearest route to that.”
The ANC’s handling of its devastating decline in electoral support was laudable, as was its determination to set up a stable government to run the country in its aftermath.
“We went into the GNU knowing full well that we have significant ideological differences with some of the parties,” President Cyril Ramaphosa told ANC supporters outside Luthuli House on Monday, reflecting on 100 days since the formation of the GNU.
“Ultimately, the GNU will not be judged by the political orientation of the parties that constitute this administration, but by the impact it will make on the lives of the poor and the working people of South Africa,” he said.
To accomplish this, the ANC’s next hurdle will be muzzling the hyenas in its own ranks to give the GNU a chance to reach its full potential.
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