The Springboks have certainly ratcheted up our collective state of bliss by a few notches — but we still trail the world’s happiest nations by a long way, according to the annual UN World Happiness Report.
The two nations that have dominated the top spot since the inaugural report was released in 2012 are Finland and Denmark. The Danes seem to specialise in happiness. Danish author Hans Christian Andersen continues to put smiles on children’s faces with his collection of fairytales, nearly 150 years after his death.
And if you want to spread some cheer this Christmas, a Lego set will probably do the trick.
The company is privately owned by the descendants of Danish founder Ole Kirk Kristiansen, so you can’t share in Lego’s joyous profits, but the following publicly traded Danish companies could offer many happy returns for investors:
Novo Nordisk
Now the largest company in Europe (after overtaking luxury conglomerate LVMH earlier this year), and with a market cap of $440bn, Novo Nordisk — maker of Wegovy — celebrates its centenary on December 21 2023.
This pharmaceutical pioneer specialises in insulin-related medicine. Initially, the focus was on ensuring that patients have the right amount of insulin for blood glucose control, which is life-saving for diabetes sufferers. More recently, Novo Nordisk discovered that stimulating the pancreas with semaglutide to release higher amounts of insulin also leads to appetite suppression.
The approval of Wegovy, a semaglutide drug, by the US Food & Drug Administration in June 2021 as a weight-loss medication allowed those suffering from obesity (roughly 40% of the US population) to get access to it via their health insurance coverage.
Since then Novo Nordisk has struggled to keep up with demand. In the company’s latest quarterly results, released on November 2, Wegovy revenue jumped 28% year on year to $1.4bn. While Novo Nordisk’s shares have risen sharply amid the frenzy to a p:e of almost 50, we believe there is still healthy upside ahead, given the insatiable appetite and large global market for this drug.
Shipping rates over the past year have been rotten for the state of Denmark, given its extensive maritime industry
AP Moller-Maersk
Shipping rates over the past year have been rotten for the state of Denmark, given its extensive maritime industry, and especially for the shipping and logistics group colloquially known as Maersk. Net profit for the company’s most recent quarter, announced on November 3, plunged 94% to $489m, sending the share price down 17% (now off 60% from the highs of early 2022).
The shipping container rates bubble has well and truly popped, but there is value to be had for investors who can stomach this stormy period of rates normalisation. While Maersk’s market cap is down to $25bn, it has net tangible assets (mostly ships, warehouses and terminals) of about $50bn on its balance sheet.
With Maersk’s shares therefore now trading at a discount of about 50% to tangible NAV, the shares are a catch. But given the vagaries of the global shipping market, it might be a good idea not to get too wedded here — best to set sail once the clouds part and the market apportions a sunnier valuation to Maersk.
Carlsberg
Founded in 1847 by JC Jacobsen and named after his son Carl, this Copenhagen-headquartered brewer is still majority-owned by the charitable foundation that Jacobsen set up before his death.
The fact that his will and testament requires the foundation to always hold at least 51% voting control of Carlsberg has arguably contributed to the company not being gobbled up in the wave of global brewer consolidation of the past few decades. It has emerged as a consolidator itself, buying breweries around the world, from Finland and Azerbaijan to India, the Philippines and Canada.
Carlsberg used to own the leading brewer in Russia, Baltika. It was reluctant to sell this crown jewel in the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and this dithering caused a serious hangover for the group when Russia seized Baltika earlier this year, inflicting a $1.4bn writedown on Carlsberg and sending the brewer’s shares down almost 30% over the past six months.
Carlsberg has a market cap of $17bn and trades at a reasonable p:e of 15. With its shares more keenly priced now, and a strongly growing nonalcoholic drinks portfolio to offset both a saturated global beer market and the loss of Baltika, Carlsberg is a worthy tipple. Skål!
Verster is CEO of Protea Capital Management
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