OpinionPREMIUM

THE FINANCE GHOST: Lessons from human chess

Rugby is a wonderful example of the importance of strategy in sport, life and stock markets. And this year’s champions can teach us all a little about the key elements of success: humility, diversity and luck

Jesse Kriel of SA celebrates victory with team mates at Stade de France in Paris, France. Picture: DAVID ROGERS/GETTY IMAGES
Jesse Kriel of SA celebrates victory with team mates at Stade de France in Paris, France. Picture: DAVID ROGERS/GETTY IMAGES

I’m writing this the morning after the game. Though my head should be thumping, I fell ill on the day of the final and had to take it easy. That’s perhaps not a bad thing, as I could just soak in all the feels on social media as I saw a country unite. I watched the game in exactly the way I wanted to: with people I love.

Of course, there were the online naysayers who couldn't resist inserting themselves into a happy moment with a dose of reality about our country. Those worries are valid, but the pandemic taught us that we need to celebrate every opportunity as though it might be our last. The realities can come later. 

It’s a delicious thought to consider the number of South Africans who will go to school and their jobs feeling inspired over the next few days. If you think South Africa is the only country with challenges, you need to read the news more often. We have our fair share of things to be concerned about and even disgusted by, but this kant of the world is a solid place to be. It teaches you gratitude, which I firmly believe is the only path to genuine happiness.

Aside from dreaming of Springbok captain Siya Kolisi announcing a move into politics — most importantly, his own party rather than one of the tired and tainted existing options — I couldn’t help but think about rugby as a wonderful example of the importance of strategy. It’s essentially a violent game of chess with humans as the pieces, representing all shapes and sizes on the field and a variety of talents.

Rugby is essentially a violent game of chess with humans as the pieces, representing all shapes and sizes on the field and a variety of talents

There are warriors in the front row, whose sole job is to smash an opponent when either of them has the ball. There are tactical players who direct the flow of the ball. There’s a marksman at No 10 who delivered us this world cup with incredible levels of big match temperament. There are speedsters who can turn a split second into a lifetime of memories. There’s room for everyone.

A diverse meritocracy is a beautiful thing to watch. It’s what South Africa could be, were it not for politicians who profit from dividing people and creating hate. I remain optimistic that love will prevail over hate in this country, even if the road to get there will be rocky. The Springboks haven’t exactly had an easy path either.

We will gush over this team for years. We will cry when Chasing the Sun 2 comes out, which it will. We will read results from MultiChoice and Shoprite as the likeliest corporate winners of this story, both having injected a lot of goodwill (and revenue) into their respective businesses. We will read results from competitors who lament the power of those businesses, as they struggle to fight for sports rights or on-demand grocery market share.

But what else can we learn?

Humility is surely Kolisi’s gift to us all. The Boks may be holding the Webb Ellis Cup, but they know how close it was and how easily things could have turned out differently in any one of the knockout games. I see far too many investors (particularly on X) in love with their own brilliance. I’m afraid the only certainty in the markets is that they will humble you at some point. 

My favourite poem is If by Rudyard Kipling, in which he talks about meeting triumph and disaster and treating “those two impostors just the same”. One person’s success is another one’s failure. It’s incredibly easy to end up on the wrong side of that equation, so don’t pat yourself on the back too much when things go well. Equally, don’t lose hope when they don’t. Markets are just a function of human nature and the volatility we see in the world. Both are impossible to predict with a Handré Pollard-like success rate.

Alongside humility, the role of diversity couldn’t be clearer. In everything you do in life, seek out complementary skill sets that make everything better. In your portfolios, have a decent mix of exposures rather than betting the farm on one idea working out the way you hope it will.

Lightning has struck twice in the Kolisi era. If the Boks can see the role of luck in their lives, you should see it in your results on the market. Stay curious, humble and perhaps most of all, committed to lifelong learning.

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