President Cyril Ramaphosa asks himself why he does the job.
It is indeed a thankless one, particularly when there are few people around you to mask your own weaknesses, which in Ramaphosa’s case is a decided inability to ensure that decisions taken are implemented and to hold to account those responsible for failures.
The stark thread running through Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address (Sona) on Thursday night was a low hum of despair and desperation as the president faces a second term — and an uphill electoral battle for his party in just 14 months’ time.
Naturally, the power crisis was at the heart of his address, marred by disruptions by the EFF, whose existential crisis continues after the departure of its pet hate, Jacob Zuma.
Ramaphosa’s announcement of a national state of disaster on the power crisis did not come as a surprise — it was a key decision which emerged from the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) meeting last month.
But he took many — even inside the NEC — by surprise with his announcement of a minister of electricity, to be located in the presidency.
That was his most direct reference to an upcoming cabinet reshuffle — and, potentially, a more comprehensive reconfiguration of ministries, which he promised during his first term as ANC president. He reshuffled his cabinet back in 2019, but the changes were minor and he retained 38 deputy ministers, not out of necessity but to appease ANC factions after the highly divided leadership core elected at the party’s 2017 national conference.
This time, Ramaphosa has a free hand to reconfigure his cabinet in a more significant way — if he has the courage to do so. He is in a vastly stronger position as party president, with an infinitely more loyal NEC and national working committee.
It is also his last term and the risk of alienating powerful leaders should not give him sleepless nights, since he will not be seeking re-election anyway.
So what can we read into the appointment of a new minister of electricity?
Ramaphosa said the post would be located inside the presidency; insiders say this is to ensure rapid decision-making.
“To deal more effectively and urgently with the challenges that confront us, I will appoint a minister of electricity in the presidency to assume full responsibility for overseeing all aspects of the electricity crisis response, including the work of the national energy crisis committee,” Ramaphosa said.
“The minister will focus full-time and work with the Eskom board and management on ending load-shedding and ensuring that the energy action plan is implemented without delay.
“So as to remove any confusion, the minister of public enterprises will remain the shareholder representative of Eskom and steer the restructuring of Eskom, ensure the establishment of the transmission company, oversee the implementation of the just energy transition programme, and oversee the establishment of the SOE [state-owned enterprises] holding company.”
Why not fire or shift them both? Perhaps the new post is a sign that Ramaphosa will continue to reward their political loyalty
The key political question that arises is who exactly Ramaphosa is trying to sideline — he has two ministers responsible for energy and Eskom. He also has a co-operative governance minister who is responsible for the national state of disaster.
But Ramaphosa appears to be sidestepping them all to bring in someone within his line of sight to tackle the energy crisis.
Who he appoints will be key to whether this added layer of bureaucracy will pay off. Eskom already has management and a board, Pravin Gordhan is still the shareholder minister and Gwede Mantashe remains energy minister.
One insider says it is clear Mantashe will remain in charge of broader energy policy — including coal, gas, oil, nuclear and diesel — and the new minister will take charge of the “by-product”: electricity. The problem is most of these things are in fact part of the energy action plan, so it seems that Mantashe’s powers are being usurped to some extent.
It appears that Gordhan’s powers are being curtailed too, since the new minister will deal directly with Eskom’s management and board on handling the crisis.
Right now, it is as clear as mud.
Mantashe and Gordhan are close Ramaphosa allies who have been found wanting in their roles. They have also clashed with each other. Ramaphosa adding a third minister to usurp both their roles could be an elegant way to sidestep this, while alienating neither. But why not fire or shift them both? Perhaps the new post is a sign that Ramaphosa will continue to reward their political loyalty and keep them in their positions.
These questions will only be answered by Ramaphosa himself, during the cabinet reshuffle.
It was set to happen before Sona, but it was felt that the reshuffle would then eclipse the president’s programme for the year.
It is now expected to be done before Ramaphosa’s visit to Ethiopia for an AU summit; he heads to Addis Ababa on February 17.
Let’s hope Ramaphosa’s next lineup of ministers will not cause him to question his motives for wanting to lead South Africa.
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