Over the past few years, there have been instances where bitcoin has shown lower volatility than some leading technology stocks, challenging the conventional narrative that bitcoin is a highly volatile investment. Given its historical ups and downs, this narrative isn’t entirely unfair.
During bitcoin’s early years, the market was small and the investment base was dominated by early adopters and retail speculators — factors that made the asset susceptible to dramatic price swings. But things have changed.
Research conducted by asset manager Fidelity in 2024 found that from 2022 to 2024 bitcoin was less volatile than Netflix and other major stocks in the S&P 500 index. The realised volatility of Netflix over a 90-day time frame averaged 53%, while bitcoin averaged 46%. Bitcoin also showed lower historical annualised volatility than 33 of roughly 500 companies in the S&P 500.
Compare that to the early days around 2014, when bitcoin’s annualised volatility frequently reached triple digits, sometimes exceeding 200%, often in response to crypto-specific events rather than broad macroeconomic trends.
What does this tell us? Bitcoin and the crypto industry have matured into a financial asset worthy of its place in the broader financial system. A key driver has been the increasing acceptance of bitcoin and other crypto assets by institutional investors, which generally boosts liquidity, attracts more capital, and helps moderate volatility. It also paves the way for deeper integration with traditional markets through new products such as ETFs.
A key driver has been the increasing acceptance of bitcoin and other crypto assets by institutional investors
But it also highlights something of a cognitive bias towards stocks. Investors may perceive bitcoin as excessively volatile when benchmarked against the S&P 500, which it is. However, indices such as the S&P 500 are designed to dampen volatility through diversification, while concentrated positions in single stocks such as Tesla, Nvidia or Netflix can exhibit comparable or even greater price swings than bitcoin.
Gold, the quintessential safe haven asset, is known for price stability and capital preservation. Its 10-year annualised volatility has historically hovered around 13% — 15%, compared with bitcoin’s 70% — 90% over the same period.
But gold is thousands of years old. In the early 1970s, around the birth of modern gold trading when prices floated based on supply, demand and investor sentiment, its volatility spiked to roughly 80%. Bitcoin, by comparison, is only in its 16th year of existence.
A more recent analysis by crypto research firm Block Scholes found bitcoin’s two-week realised volatility in September 2025 at historical lows below 20%, with a yearly average of about 42%, not far off some of the biggest S&P 500 stocks, and considerably less than others in the index.
Will it continue to shed its temperamental nature as it matures? For one, it’ll make for less entertaining headlines, which is probably not a bad thing if you’re an investor.
De Wit is country manager at Luno South Africa
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