Jubilee Metals’ decision to sell its South African platinum group metals (PGM) and chrome operations for up to $90m and focus instead on its Zambian copper assets couldn’t have come at a more striking time. Just weeks after the announcement, the platinum price surged to a new 11-year high, sparking a flurry of commentary questioning whether the company was making a strategic misstep — or simply selling too cheaply.
But that criticism may be misplaced. Unlike investors, company directors don’t have the benefit of a stop loss. They must make decisions based on long-term fundamentals, rather than short-term price spikes. And while platinum has enjoyed a strong rally, the broader PGM complex still faces serious structural headwinds.
Take palladium and rhodium — two of the three commercially significant PGMs alongside platinum. Both remain well below their recent highs, largely because about 80% of their demand comes from autocatalysts used in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Platinum, by contrast, has a more balanced demand base: only about 40% is used in autocatalysts, while roughly 25% is consumed in jewellery. That segment is now getting a boost as consumers opt for platinum over the pricier white gold — a gold alloy blended with palladium or nickel to achieve its silvery finish.
This shift in jewellery demand, along with the restocking of original equipment and tightening supply, has helped drive platinum higher. Years of underinvestment in new PGM projects are now translating into tight supply. Still, even with platinum on the rise, the long-term outlook for PGMs is clouded by the accelerating transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) — fully electric cars with no combustion engine and, therefore, no autocatalyst requirement.
BEV adoption is strongest in China, where they now account for 27% of new car sales. Europe follows at 15%, and even some emerging markets are moving fast: Türkiye has reached 20% BEV market share, and Uruguay, 18%. The main laggard is the US, where BEVs make up just 7.5% of new sales — held back by high costs, range anxiety and a growing tug-of-war between federal and state policy agendas.
Autocatalyst demand is in structural decline — the only question is how fast
But some of those obstacles are fading. BEV prices are falling rapidly, and new battery technologies now allow for charging times as short as five to 15 minutes — giving drivers a refuelling experience closer to petrol-powered vehicles. At the same time, charging infrastructure is expanding rapidly, and government mandates are tightening. Both the UK and EU have pledged to ban sales of new ICE vehicles by 2035, though the EU’s target will be reviewed in 2026.
In short, autocatalyst demand is in structural decline — the only question is how fast.
That outlook was a major factor in Jubilee’s decision. Management describes its South African PGM and chrome assets as mature, heavily reliant on processing for third parties. Scaling production would require significant capital outlay, likely in partnership with new mining ventures. The board believes that money can be put to better use — namely in Zambia, where Jubilee’s copper operations offer scalability, stronger margins and clearer exposure to global electrification.
Copper’s demand outlook isn’t just more predictable — it’s undeniably optimistic. It’s essential to electric motors, EV charging infrastructure, renewable energy and modern power grids. Unlike PGMs, its role isn’t threatened by technological change — it’s being driven by it. Jubilee’s operations in Zambia are already delivering, with active production, near-term growth projects and plans to increase refining capacity by early 2026.
Still, the company isn’t exiting PGMs entirely. It retains the Tjate Platinum project, a large undeveloped resource offering potential upside if the market strengthens in a more sustainable way. It’s a strategic option that doesn’t require any major capital for now.
Naturally, this pivot carries risks. South Africa’s mining sector may be encumbered by power issues and regulatory complexity, but it’s still relatively stable. Zambia, while more mining-friendly today, has a history of political and fiscal unpredictability. Jubilee’s on-the-ground experience helps reduce — but not eliminate — that risk.
Ultimately, this move is also about focus. Jubilee is stepping away from a mature business with an uncertain future to concentrate on one with clearer long-term prospects. The Zambian operations have faced recent challenges — lower recoveries and power disruptions — so a more concentrated management effort is appropriate.
The sales deal represents about 60% of Jubilee’s current market capitalisation. Structured with a mix of upfront and deferred payments over three years, it remains subject to shareholder approval. With PGM prices still climbing, it remains to be seen whether shareholders will share management’s long-term vision — or press for a higher price.
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