I have a habit of dog-earing pages of books with noteworthy snippets to reread. Tim Marshall laughs when I show him my copy of his work, The Future of Geography: How Power and Politics in Space Will Change Our World. I’ve crumpled so many pages that it looks tatty and dated rather than like a clean and crisp new release.
Marshall’s is an eye-opening book. Developments in space make for astonishing and intriguing news that affects everyone. So why does the mainstream media ignore so much of it, except when the odd egotistical billionaire celebrity blows his trumpet? Marshall believes that “with the intersection of commerce, private enterprise, great powers’ rivalry and technology, it’s all come together quickly. It’s ahead of public perception.
“Also, I don’t think we generally yet understand that space assets — satellites as the best example — are part of our critical infrastructure. When we don’t have a view of it, we kind of ignore it; out of sight, out of mind.”
I mutter that the book would translate into a riveting television documentary series. As it turns out, one of Marshall’s earlier works, Prisoners of Geography, is under negotiation for precisely that.
“But those wheels turn very slowly,” Marshall says.
Was he a geek as a child? “No.” He indulges me with a polite smile. “I wasn’t a sci-fi nerd. But I always had an interest in space, particularly after watching the moon landings as a 10-year-old.”
The idea for The Future of Geography came from Marshall connecting his main field of journalistic experience — international relations — with the geopolitical dimensions of our expanding space capabilities.
Is space geography, though? The merits of the book aside, the title seems a force-fit into the theme of Marshall’s most recent other works, The Power of Geography and Prisoners of Geography.
He partially accepts that it could erroneously mislead some readers — and that those interested in space may give it a pass. “But there are elements of [space] where you can stretch the interpretation of geography, and I wanted to give a framework for understanding what’s happening up there,” he says.
“It’s not just this sort of featureless expanse. And when you consider things like distances, the radiation belts, low Earth orbit, the south lunar pole, I think it is justifiable.”
His argument, too, is that geostrategies are a driving force behind how nations conduct their affairs on Earth and in space. Pointedly, he says that it’s ultimately “a book about politics”.
I do believe in the 2030s we will have a permanent station on the moon. And then we’ll start to think further beyond
— Tim Marshall
Surprisingly, Marshall’s research took just six months. More amazing is the extent to which the book contains seemingly classified military material. How did he find out about some of this “right stuff”?
“Well, there were several people interviewed who did not wish to be quoted or credited in the acknowledgments,” he says. “And there are declassified documents that you can have access to. Also, a lot is open source.”
Space weaponry is at an advanced stage of development, epitomised by China’s 2007 experiment in blowing up one of its satellites using a land-based “kinetic kill vehicle” (KKV). Travelling at 7km-8km a second, the KKV hit its target 863km away.
Late in the book Marshall spins out a few scenarios in which war — superpower against superpower — is almost triggered by small conflicts in space. The hair-trigger scenarios — futuristic versions of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis — are awfully plausible, despite their imaginative playfulness. The potential for major conflicts is being ramped up.
“We want space to be different, but it won’t be,” he says, worldly-wise.
The alarming, depressing sections of the book are counterbalanced by humour, such as when Marshall points out that the far side of the moon is often bathed in sunlight, “but Pink Floyd were not going to let that stand in the way of their best-selling LP”.
I smile again when rereading this dog-eared page — confirmation, as Marshall says, that “even when we’re talking about serious things, there are moments of levity”.
This restless spirit of ours will never stop. As long as we can, we will
— Tim Marshall
The pull of the moon
From the militarisation of space our discussion shifts to mining on the moon as well as on other planets and asteroids. Marshall believes space mining isn’t too far in the future. “We will not be mining on the moon until early next decade. But everybody is trying to get there.”
The incentive is clear: the moon, for example, has enormous, identified areas of frozen water, and there are signs of helium-3. In fact, there may be 1Mt of the gas on the moon, against almost none on Earth. Leading scientists estimate that if helium-3’s power could be harnessed, it would generate humankind’s energy needs for 10,000 years.
Further, Marshall says, “we have landed on an asteroid, and Japan has developed machines that can mine on asteroids. But putting the two things together has not yet happened.”
One of the book’s chapters starts with a sad but spectacular Albert Einstein quote: “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity. And I’m not sure about the universe.”
I ask Marshall if he thinks Einstein was right — are we being stupid by not prioritising fixing things on Earth? “I think it is possible we can help mend the planet partially through space exploration,” he responds. “For instance, I’d rather be mining there than here, and the goal of helium-3 nuclear fusion energy, surely, is worth pursuing.”
There’s also potential for huge progression in combating climate change from space — using giant solar panels, for example, “to reflect the sun’s rays to Earth for energy”.
We agree that even if some ideas are overhyped or sheer fantasy, something intangible and romantic within the human spirit will push us on. “This restless spirit of ours will never stop,” Marshall says. “As long as we can, we will.”
Which segues neatly to the idea of colonising Mars — or at least laying literal foundations there — within the next 30 years. “Elon Musk is the foremost commercial entrepreneur in the future geography of space,” Marshall says. But he partly agrees with me that Musk is fantasising. “He said he’ll get a million people [to Mars] by 2050. Just do the math,” he points out.
Indeed. Assuming a hugely optimistic starting date of 2030, taking 100 people at a time, each trip taking a minimum of seven months — well, the numbers make the thought seem infinitely silly.
Besides, Marshall notes, there is still so much to do: plans, preparations, rethinking. “Do you go straight to Mars? Or do you go to the moon and use it as a launch pad?” he asks.
“That’s more viable, because you learn so much. The timeline to walk on the moon again is by 2032, which will probably slip back two to three years, but I do believe that in the 2030s we will have a permanent station on the moon. And then we’ll start to think further beyond.”
So, a settlement on Mars: will it happen? “Probably,” he smiles, breaking into laughter when I ask if he would go. Then he quietens: “I would volunteer to go into space. In a heartbeat.”
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