My crypto cronies — mostly from a much younger generation — are looking good for cashing in on a stupid bet I made at the start of the year.
I wagered that the JSE all share index would be above 100,000 points at year-end, and the price of bitcoin would be (markedly) below $100,000.
The scoreboard at halftime makes for a slightly disappointing read. Bitcoin, as I write this, is more than $105,000 and the JSE is below 94,000 points.
I’m not too worried at this juncture — though I am starting to fret at what a slap-up lunch at Magica Roma will cost at the start of 2026 if I have to make good on the bet.
I can’t really speak with much authority on the fundamentals of the crypto market. I still, to be honest, debate whether there are any real fundamentals driving crypto prices. I certainly don’t get much insight from reading the various market reports.
It’s also difficult to make any bold predictions for the local equity market. The week before I started this note, the crude oil price started barrelling upward (after tensions flared in the Middle East) and platinum had a most unexpected spike (roughly coinciding with the spin-off of Valterra Platinum from Anglo American).
It did not take long for the initial excitement to ebb — bad news for our investment club, which got caught up in the excitement and took punts on Valterra as well as Northam Platinum. That said, the resilient bullion price will ensure that the JSE’s handful of gold miners remain in the spotlight. The operational cash flows are set to be spectacular, and executives’ capital allocation prowess will need to be carefully monitored in the months ahead.
The current edition of IM, I must say, offers a real spread of investment coverage — ranging from real estate to commodities, leisure and tech. I am basing the coverage largely on correspondence from readers, but there are only so many pages at our disposal, and there is such a clamouring for us to dive into shares.
In the next editions, I promise, we will cover Astoria, Finbond and PPC (as requested by dozens of you). Please keep the suggestions coming. We’ll do our utmost to delve and deliver.
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