New Zambezi dam: flow or folly?

Mozambique took another huge step this year to exploit the waters of the Zambezi and provide more power to its grid.

The Mphanda Nkuwa hydropower project, about 60km downstream from Mozambique’s biggest dam, Cahora Bassa, is expected to produce 1,500MW when it comes on stream in 2031; Cahora produced 2,075MW this year. However, most of Cahora’s power is exported to South Africa, while Mphanda Nkuwa will provide for domestic and regional use.

The project is another indication of Mozambique’s rich natural power potential, with the waters of the Zambezi and the gas fields in the northern Rovuma basin.

The Zambezi basin, which Mozambique shares with Zambia and Zimbabwe, could produce about 100 terawatt-hours per year (one terawatt-hour represents 1-trillion watt-hours of electricity).

The Mphanda Nkuwa project got a boost this year with a $5bn deal with a consortium headed by French power company EDF, with the World Bank providing financial and risk support. Three smaller hydro operations — Chemba, Lupata and Boroma, all on the Zambezi — are due to come into operation in 2027.

The agreement on Mphanda Nkuwa was finalised in December 2023. Once finished, it will be the biggest hydroelectric project in Southern Africa since 1969, when Cahora Bassa was completed.

The EDF consortium includes TotalEnergies and Japan’s Sumitomo Corp as co-partners, with the government of Mozambique and state utility Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa as equity partners in the Mphanda venture. TotalEnergies is also involved in a $20bn liquefied natural gas project in Mozambique’s northeast province of Cabo Delgado, but has delayed restarting it, citing force majeure because of insurgent attacks.

Mphanda Nkuwa is part of the World Bank Mission 300 programme that aims to provide electricity to 300-million people (out of about 1.27-billion) in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030. Overall, the amount of capital raised as part of the larger Mission 300 programme may exceed $100bn, says World Bank president Ajay Banga, who visited Mozambique in July. Mozambican President Daniel Chapo says it will make his country the main energy hub in the region.

Mphanda Nkuwa will serve the Mozambique domestic network and provide power to neighbouring Zambia, Malawi and Zimbabwe.

Mozambique already supplies electricity to some parts of Southern Africa, but because of inadequate transmission lines, regional integration has been limited. A new 1,300km transmission line is expected to spread the power further.

But not everyone is enthusiastic. Erika Mendes of Justiça Ambiental, an environmental and human rights watchdog, says the Mphanda Nkuwa project is a threat to the local population and the environment

“Communities such as fisherfolk, artisanal miners and subsistence farmers are displaced without proper compensation,” she says. Mendes says there have been reports of harassment, intimidation and arrest of those opposed to the project.

Mendes says the dam also threatens biodiversity, interrupts the flow of rivers to other dams and endangers aquaculture and seven wetlands of the Zambezi delta. The delta, about 200km north of Beira, covers about 12-million hectares and 230km of coastline on the Indian Ocean.

“The combined effects of various dams, sediment loss and failure to consider climate change projections might diminish hydroelectric power and may mean increased flooding and drought,” says Mendes.

Estacio Valoi, a journalist based in Maputo, is sceptical about the impact of the project. The Cahora Bassa hydroelectric plant is operating at maximum capacity, but “just a few homes in the town of Songo have power from it, and rural communities throughout the district remain without electricity. Communities see poles, towers, and cables carrying power elsewhere. The same will happen to Mphanda Nkuwa,” he says, adding: “The benefits are only for politics, not for the community.” 

Efforts to reach Mozambique’s minister of mineral resources & energy for comment through text and phone calls were unsuccessful.