Even as Frelimo’s Daniel Chapo was sworn in as president of Mozambique this week, the country remained in political deadlock and turmoil after contested election results from October.
Frelimo, which has led the country since independence in 1975, continues to rule despite allegations of irregularities during the election and vote-counting.
Looming in the background is Venâncio Mondlane, the opposition leader who was the presidential candidate for Podemos, an acronym for Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique. Mondlane returned last week from a brief self-imposed exile. He had feared for his life after four senior opposition party officials were killed soon after the election. He said he was still willing to negotiate the future of the country.
The recent protests in Mozambique and the near lockdown of the country happened mainly on the orders of Mondlane. His mostly young supporters halted traffic in main city centres, blockaded the Lebombo border post with South Africa, banged their pots and pans at night and set fire to Frelimo and government buildings.
This slowed down imports and there were temporary shortages of fuel and food. Some tourists had their vehicles stoned and fled the country on back roads. What should have been a high season for tourism declined by more than 50% in some areas, according to trade sources.
More than 300 of Mondlane’s supporters were killed by Frelimo security forces.
In a weekly online broadcast, Mondlane said he would lead the final “spearhead” of protest to take over the government, but Albino Forquilha, the president of Podemos, says the party will assume its 43 seats in the parliamentary assembly without Mondlane. Forquilha says the agreement with Mondlane was only to support him as a presidential candidate.
“He does not rule the party,” says Forquilha. “He is not a member of any of the Podemos bodies as he is not even a member of our party. We will take office in respect of the popular vote of confidence. Everything else [Mondlane does] is at his own risk.”
Mondlane became Podemos’s candidate after his own Democratic Alliance Coalition (CAD) was denied registration in the election. It was largely Mondlane’s popularity that helped Podemos to unseat the former rebel movement, Renamo, as the official opposition.
The Southern African Development Community, with Zimbabwe in the chair, supports the outcome of the election and therefore Frelimo. Zanu-PF has always supported Frelimo. The ANC has offered to mediate but to no avail. The AU, while maintaining a low profile, appears to support the ANC line.
Mondlane criticised the ANC for congratulating Frelimo on its election victory even before the results were announced. He also does not trust the ANC to mediate. In a recent statement Mondlane declared that there is a better understanding within the EU, the US and the Vatican of the situation.
The only eminent person to publicly criticise Frelimo’s alleged rigging of elections was buried last week. Former US president Jimmy Carter led a team of observers to the Mozambican elections of 1999 and 2004, declaring them fraudulent. At the time the Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama and his party probably won the elections, Carter said. More than 700 polling stations and their results were excluded from the official count.
In its most recent update about the situation, the Centre for Public Integrity in Mozambique asks: “Where is the next Carter, now that we need him?”
Intelligence analyst Nel Marais says the period of relative peace in the past two weeks (as ordered by Mondlane) might indicate that Podemos is running out of steam. However, with Mondlane’s return the fragile peace can be undermined by either side.
He says despite outgoing President Filipe Nyusi’s “willingness” to negotiate with opposition parties, there is no common ground between Frelimo, CAD and the other opposition parties.
The opposition says the elections were rigged on a huge scale. Nevertheless, Frelimo remains in de facto control because it is in charge of the military and the police and even the Constitutional Council, the country’s top court.
The background to Mozambique’s unrest is a liberation party that has ruled for almost 50 years and a public that is demanding better health care and education, and reforms to an economy that now favours the elite.
According to Nel, South African companies which have invested heavily in Mozambique are adding pressure on the South African government to take a firmer stance for a solution, if only for economic reasons. South Africa will also face an influx of refugees should its neighbour’s economy deteriorate further.
Meanwhile, Frelimo has already decided that all ballots from the October 9 election will be destroyed on January 22, preventing any audit or recount.
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