I’ve been vocal about the positive prospects for the 2024/2025 agricultural season in South Africa, given the expected La Niña rains. I continue to remain optimistic. But the reality is that we may have a late season. The good rains of the past few weeks have been scattered, and planting hasn’t gained momentum in any meaningful way across the country.
This has raised fears in the grains markets about another tough season, partly contributing to the surge in maize prices we are seeing on Safex. Of course, the fundamental driver of maize prices is that we have tight supplies because of the bad crop in the 2023/2024 season.
Still, I think it’s too early to make a call as to whether the upcoming season will be tough. The prospect of La Niña is still active. In all likelihood, it may be a late season. Until we see a material change in the weather prospects, we will maintain our view of a possible better season.
Another essential point to underscore is that even if we move from La Niña to “normal” weather conditions, it’s not a disaster; normal weather in the summer season does not translate to drought – it’s normal rains. We have got so used to the cycle of moving between La Niña and El Niño that we no longer talk of a regular season.
Still, I want to underscore that we are probably in for a late season. There are still convincing signs of La Niña. The planting has also not occurred in any meaningful way across South Africa.
My writing on agricultural economic matters is available on my blog: https://wandilesihlobo.com/ This podcast is produced by Richard Humphries, Sam Mkokeli and Amanda Murimba
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