A handful of South African soldiers recently had to help their allies in Mozambique when Islamic insurgents launched their boldest attack of the war yet, targeting Macomia, a town in Cabo Delgado.
The renewed attacks in Mozambique’s northernmost province come after the departure of troops from the Southern African regional force (called Samim). It’s a clear indication that the insurgency, which Samim had meant to suppress, has not been quelled. The insurgents were biding their time, knowing that the regional force could not be deployed indefinitely.
The South Africans had to fight for their lives after two of only five serviceable Casspir troop carriers were damaged by explosive devices planted on the routes to Macomia. The only South African Air Force Oryx transport helicopter able to help had to fly in reinforcements and ammunition twice during the two-day attack.
The insurgents also captured personnel and vehicles from NGOs, among them Doctors Without Borders. At least eight civilians were taken as hostages to the guerrillas’ main base in the Mucojo area on the coast, about 45km east of Macomia.
According to sources in the area, one of the hostages was a South African. By last week all had been released.
Rwandan soldiers, who are guarding the gas fields on the coast further north, also came under attack during the latest incursions.
After an agreement between Mozambique and Rwanda for 2,000 more soldiers, these will now need to hold the line to prevent the insurgency from spreading further south. The 300 remaining South African soldiers will be there mainly to protect the contingent’s equipment and unserviceable vehicles. It is a thin line of defence to keep a full-blown insurgency from drawing closer to South Africa’s borders.
Yet the regional heads of state have declared Samim a roaring success, slapping themselves on the back for a job “well done”, and have moved on.
There is no credible argument for supporting the withdrawal, yet the Samim exit wheels are in motion
— Piers Pigou
Piers Pigou, who heads the Southern Africa programme at the Institute for Security Studies, calls the attack on Macomia, an area the South African soldiers were responsible for, a disaster.
“The attack presents the most organised and well-oiled operation since the March 2021 Palma attack and was the first on Macomia since June 2020,” he says.
“It compounds an already extremely complicated operational environment for humanitarian agencies, and for the internally displaced and returnee communities conditions will be further compromised. And one thing is clear: the Samim withdrawal has not been matched with a complementary security strategy to address inevitable security vacuums, but instead opens the door to greater opportunities for insurgents.
“There is no credible argument for supporting the withdrawal, yet the Samim exit wheels are in motion and nothing seems to be able to stop that now. It is a disaster for peace and stability for the whole of Cabo Delgado.”
Josep Borrell, a representative of the EU, noted after a meeting with the defence force’s high command in Mozambique recently that the EU’s training mission in that country “managed to limit the expansion threat in Cabo Delgado”.
Pigou acknowledges that the training mission, which also helped the Mozambican forces with equipment, made an important contribution. “But let us not pretend that this, or the armed forces of Rwanda or Mozambique, is going to stop the insurgency and the terrorist threat without a fitting counterinsurgency strategy.”
An indication of the boldness of the insurgents is that soon after the Macomia attack, they targeted Mbau and a base of the Rwanda Defence Force in the district of Mocímboa da Praia, near the border with Tanzania. Shortly before that, a patrol of Mozambican soldiers disarmed three improvised explosive devices similar to the one the South African Casspirs detonated.
At Mbau the insurgents established roadblocks on the main road to the area, preventing reinforcements from reaching the town. The Rwandans repulsed the attack and 11 insurgents were killed. The Rwandans also suffered casualties.
Intelligence sources have warned of a renewed campaign by the insurgents to reclaim control over areas they lost when the Samim force was deployed. The two years of intervention by Samim — much too short to put a lasting end to an insurgency of this kind, according to military strategists — have been a waste of effort and of the lives of the soldiers who died.
The region and its leaders will face the consequences when the insurgency starts spilling across the borders into neighbouring countries. Intervention then will be more difficult.
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