The 5 million ANC voters who stayed away from the 2021 local government election did so because of a “trust, knowledge and capacity deficit” in the party, according to the party’s organisational report, which was delivered at its 55th National Conference on Saturday.
Deputy president David Mabuza delivered the report in a closed session on the second day of an elective conference that has been marred by long delays, technical glitches, load-shedding and political divisions, which were on full display during President Cyril Ramaphosa’s opening address on Friday.
The ANC, as has become routine at recent conferences, devotes time to discuss its waning electoral fortunes, as its support has been declining consistently since 2009. But its most dramatic decline was in 2021, when it lost about a third of the country’s 257 municipalities and five of its eight metros.
This conference is intended to be the forum at which the plan to turn around the party’s fortunes is hammered out — yet its delegates remain fixated on factional fights and power plays.
In the organisational report, which the FM has seen, the ANC acknowledges that it is “perilously close” to losing a number of provinces in 2024.
“The local election results reflect voter trust in our credibility and capacity, a national downward mood about Covid-19, poor state of the economy, unemployment and corruption, poor state of ANC structures, a lack of campaign resources, a distracted and disengaged leadership and the Eskom load-shedding,” it says.
The report adds that regaining voters’ trust is critical.
“The 2021 [local government election] results tell us that about 5 million ANC voters who voted in 2019 stayed away. Voters are fast losing confidence in the ANC to govern effectively and meet their needs for services... we have to change course urgently.”
The ANC’s analysis of the election shows that it lost about 1,500 seats in various councils in the 2021 election. It says the “dominant narrative” is that the party will be forced to enter coalitions in three provinces after the 2024 election, including Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Northern Cape.
“It is therefore clear that the ANC must strengthen its coalition strategy,” the report says. “We however need to work harder in winning back these municipalities and spare ourselves the trouble of working with small, over-ambitious, unreasonable and very small parties.”
Of deeper concern to the party, according to the report, is that many traditional ANC voters and supporters are simply opting out of the electoral process.
First time voters in particular are sceptical about whether voting makes a difference: in 1999, 41% of young people eligible to vote for the first time registered, but this dropped to 9% in the 2021 local election. This indicates that young South Africans are increasingly distrustful of democratic processes.
The report describes how the ANC has not been able to build a “permanent, professional election capacity at national, regional and provincial level”.
In addition to the organisational report, the ANC’s head of elections Fikile Mbalula presented a comprehensive elections report to the conference, detailing potential strategies to overturn the party’s ailing electoral fortunes.
But rather than the wider organisational frailty, the party conference has remained fixated on the leadership question. While Ramaphosa walked into the conference widely expected to win a second term, last minute jostling saw his opponent Zweli Mkhize make inroads into his support. It is unlikely to be enough to unseat Ramaphosa, but the race is now expected to be tighter than initially expected.
At the same time, the Ramaphosa camp's inability to reach consensus on who should stand as his deputy means that Paul Mashatile remains the front-runner for that position. The Ramaphosa group had initially wanted Senzo Mchunu as deputy, but abandoned this choice early on Friday, when they realised, belatedly, that Mchunu did not command widespread support.
Ramaphosa's group then threw their support behind Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane — however Justice Minister Ronald Lamola, who is also standing for the deputy president post, and is considered one of Ramaphosa’s backers, has not abandoned his campaign for the post either.
The conference continues.
Read the full ANC political report below.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.