Asking whether democracy here needs coalitions is like asking whether breathing is really necessary.
Debate about coalitions in South Africa has an air of unreality. They are often discussed as if they are a newfangled form of government which we are free to accept or reject. But almost no-one chooses a coalition — they usually happen when there is no other way of forming a government. And they will become part of the political furniture here — not because anyone wants them, but because reality will make them essential.
The sooner we grasp this, the sooner we will stop debating whether that reality is a good idea and begin working out what coalitions mean for politics in South Africa.
Occasionally a governing party decides for strategic reasons that it wants other parties in its government even though it has won a majority. But this is rare. Most of the time coalitions are a product of arithmetic — the only way to form a government that enjoys majority support is for two or more parties to pool seats.
This means, of course, that debating whether coalitions are a good idea is pointless. They are becoming the only option in more of our elections than ever before. They are already a fixture in local elections and could be needed in national government after this month’s election. Even if they aren’t, all three provinces that house the bulk of economic activity, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape, may be governed by coalitions.
This is probably the beginning of a trend in which coalitions will become a permanent fixture in this country’s party politics.
The electoral system we use almost always produces coalitions. Because one-quarter of 1% of the vote wins a seat in parliament, voters need not choose a big party to ensure that their voice is heard. And so they are more likely to choose the party they really want to support, even if it remains small.
This makes coalitions almost inevitable, because voter support is spread over many parties; it is common in countries using a similar system to ours for the largest party to win about a quarter of the total vote.
The only reason our elections have produced majority governments is that the ANC has won a share of the vote that is virtually unheard of in democracies. This has prompted many anti-ANC voters to opt for the largest opposition party, the DA, partly because it claimed that voting for other opposition parties would split the anti-ANC vote — even though, with the electoral system we have, it does nothing of the sort.
All this is changing, and so the electoral system is beginning to produce the results we should expect. We all know that the ANC vote is declining. It will drop below 50% either in this election or the next, and it is highly unlikely that it will ever reach a majority again.
What is less well known is that the ANC’s largest rival, the DA, is also losing support. The 2021 local elections are remembered largely because the ANC vote dipped below 50% for the first time then. But the DA lost a larger percentage of its support compared to the previous local elections than the ANC did. It is now worried that it will lose its majority in the Western Cape as some of its voters opt for other opposition parties.
The EFF, the third-biggest party, may also be starting to lose support for the first time — by-election results show it shedding votes to the MK Party.
All this points to the decline of the bigger parties and the growth of a range of smaller parties. This is unlikely to be an exception — though it will take time to gel. And that means that we are entering a new reality in which we look not at which party wins a majority but at which coalition is likely to govern.
We are entering a new reality in which we look not at which party wins a majority but at which coalition is likely to govern
Of course, this assumes that the electoral system we have now stays. Would the bigger parties revive if we change — as many would like — to a different system? In theory, yes, in practice, no.
If we changed to a pure constituency system, the smaller parties would be wiped out. But there is little or no support for choosing such a system, and with good reason. If we did, instead of coalitions we would have parties governing with large majorities but with the support of a minority of voters. Many of the parties that now give their voters a voice would disappear, and even more voters would feel they had no voice.
That is why those calling for change want the system that now operates in local government. Though half the local councillors are elected in constituencies (wards), the overall result must be proportional, which means parties that lose wards can gain seats in proportion to their support.
This would not remove the need for coalitions — it is precisely in local government, where this system is used, that coalitions have taken root. So, even if the system changes, coalitions are likely to become standard practice.
Many will see this as bad news. It is common to see coalitions as conflict-ridden disasters which must be whipped into shape by law. But, while most local coalitions are not a pretty sight, these reactions ignore why it is so — and why trying to use the law to change how they operate won’t work.
Part of the problem is the attitude of the larger political parties, which have not adjusted to the reality that coalitions are here to stay.
The ANC has spent this campaign trying to convince anyone who will listen that coalitions are a disaster. The DA, in keeping with a tradition which suggests that it does not believe that any other opposition party should exist, is yelling at other parties with which it may have to govern the province, for daring to seek votes in the Western Cape. The EFF sees coalitions as arrangements in which the other parties allow it to govern.
If they cling to these attitudes, coalitions will stay as difficult as they often are now. But reality will probably force the parties to change as they begin to realise that they can govern only if they treat their coalition partners as allies rather than problems.
Coalitions have been unstable also because election results have made them so. As the results change, coalitions will become more manageable.
Reality will probably force the large parties to change as they begin to realise that they can govern only if they treat their coalition partners as allies rather than problems
Despite its decline, the ANC continues to dominate elections. In its worst-ever result, in 2021, it still received more than double the vote of the next-biggest party (the DA) and four times as many as the third-biggest (the EFF). This has made coalitions particularly difficult.
Because the ANC is usually the largest party, it is often best placed to form a coalition. But most opposition parties don’t want to govern with it because they fear their voters will reject them.
And, because the other parties have a fraction of the ANC’s vote, the only way its opponents can form a government is by enticing a large array of parties into the coalition. This gives small parties huge leverage because they can sink a coalition by going over to a rival.
The elephant in the room here is that all of this is possible because our political history has encouraged us to see party politics as a contest between big parties. Coalitions may include a variety of parties but they are still seen as “ANC” or “DA” or “IFP” governments. This influences party decisions to join or leave coalitions and produces the unruliness which upsets many.
It follows that this, too, will change as it becomes clear that coalitions are joint governments, not arrangements in which small parties allow the big one to govern alone in exchange for some perks.
If we accept that coalitions will become more stable, we can avoid the mistake which many voices — including those of the bigger parties — want us to make, which is to use the law to “fix” coalitions.
This is a recipe for disaster. It is sure to erode democracy and is guaranteed not to work. It erodes democracy because the proposed laws deprive parties and voters of choices which are their right. To name an example, limiting no-confidence votes to one a year gives incompetents months of impunity. And they don’t work, because parties that want to find a way around the rules will find a way to do this.
The turbulence we have seen in some local coalitions is no reason to try to escape reality by wishing coalitions away. Nor does it mean that we should start rolling democracy back by telling parties how to form coalitions. It means that politics here is adjusting to new realities.
Democracy’s health will grow if we allow political nature to take its course as our politics adjust to the coalitions which are the future.
* Friedman is research professor in the faculty of humanities at the University of Johannesburg
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.