Imagine the scene: President Cyril Ramaphosa is reaching for a pen. Not to sign a controversial piece of legislation in a cynical last-minute move to win voters for a beleaguered ANC, but to sign his resignation letter.
Like a scene in a Caravaggio painting, one group of plotters is in the shadows waiting to pounce, nudging the pen in his direction, while another cluster is pulling his arm back, whispering in his ear that he must stay, “in the national interest”.
This was how it played out on December 1 2022, when Ramaphosa was hours away from announcing his resignation on live television in the aftermath of the report of the section 89 independent panel on Phala Phala, which had concluded that the president had a case to answer and that the impeachment process should proceed.
But it could also be the scene on Monday June 3 this year, as a shell-shocked ANC reacts to a devastating election outcome. This is the 43% scenario — unlikely, in my view, but not impossible.
Not only will the ANC face a far more complicated and perilous set of negotiations to secure a governing majority with other parties in this scenario, but the impetus to remove Ramaphosa from power will be far greater. Deputy President Paul Mashatile will likely see an opportunity to grab the top job.
This election is as much a ballot on Ramaphosa — and the steady trajectory of his rebuilding both of state institutions broken by state capture and an economy ravaged by Covid — as a ballot on the ANC. One way or another it will seal Ramaphosa’s fate and the terms of the final chapter of his long and winding career in politics.
In December 2022 Ramaphosa was prevailed upon to remain in office. This time a far more intense power struggle will likely ensue, should the ANC’s share of the vote fall below 46%. Yet again, he may well have his arm twisted to fight on, regardless of the result of the election. Not only will the usual suspects from the renewal faction be urging him not to relinquish power to an impatient — and, it should be added, largely untested and unknown — deputy, Mashatile, but a third group, led by ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, will be pushing the resignation pen further away from Ramaphosa.
This point has been missed by most commentators. Mbalula needs Ramaphosa to stick around to the next ANC national elective conference in 2027, so that Mbalula has more time to build a sufficiently robust campaign to defeat Mashatile.
Probably the country does too. Almost all the other available scenarios offer greater instability and uncertainty. Better the devil you know, and all that.
Ramaphosa’s reaction to the result will be critical to what comes next. His appetite for power and public service will be tested once again. As will his judgment in relation to who will make the best coalition partners, and his ability to take his unruly party with him once he has settled on his choice.
Fikile Mbalula needs Ramaphosa to stick around to the next ANC national elective conference in 2027
The precise balance of power in the top echelon of the ANC’s leadership will matter as much as the exact percentage of the vote the party achieves.
These will be delicate moments in the country’s, as well as the ANC’s, history. Ramaphosa’s cool under pressure and steely nerves will be examined once again. His choices — as well as his ability to navigate a complex terrain — will be as consequential as any he has made in his long career, perhaps more so. What he decides will have long-term implications for the composition and character of the government for the next five years and beyond.
Ramaphosa and his advisers will need to keep in mind an important constitutional provision. If they choose unreliable partners in order to get Ramaphosa re-elected by the National Assembly at its first sitting after the election, and those partners subsequently drop their support and force a vote of no confidence, and were the president then to fall, he would at that point complete his second term as president — whether it is after six weeks or six months. As the constitution permits only two terms, his political career would be brought to a sudden and drastic halt.
As Nelson Mandela once kindly reminded us, there are only two ways out of politics: death and defeat. As ever, Mandela proved the exception to the rule; by stepping aside after just one term in office he was able to leave with head held high and reputation intact.
Unless the ANC surprises us all and secures an outright majority for the seventh national election in a row, Ramaphosa is unlikely to have such an option. A complicated and messy end to his time as president is in sight. The only question that remains is whether this master tactician is up for one last fight.
* Calland is an emeritus associate professor in public law at the University of Cape Town, a founding partner of political risk advisory The Paternoster Group and the co-author of The Presidents: From Mandela to Ramaphosa, Leadership in The Age of Crisis
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