Before the Easter weekend, Freedom Front Plus (FF+) chief whip Corné Mulder hosted a lunch at his home. It was a casual event but would be crucial for the coalition landscape in South Africa, from Joburg to Matzikama, Kou-Kamma to Rustenburg, Lekwa to uMdoni. In attendance were two key players: DA leader John Steenhuisen and Gayton McKenzie, leader of the Patriotic Alliance (PA).
Though at Mulder’s house, the meeting had been organised at the behest of Steenhuisen, who has been looking to unite South Africa’s opposition parties in a “moonshot pact” to unseat the ANC in the 2024 national election.
It’s not an implausible idea, given the ANC’s crumbling dominance in local government elections in 2021. Those polls resulted in a record number of hung councils across the country, including in former ANC strongholds such as the Eastern Cape, Northern Cape and Limpopo.
Steenhuisen and McKenzie were meeting at a crucial time. In just over a week, the new leadership of South Africa’s biggest-budget city would be decided.
Joburg is one of the roughly 80 hung councils dotted around South Africa. As has become par for the course in such councils, the metro has been paralysed by political infighting. It has had no consistent leadership since the 2021 local government polls and is on its sixth mayor in just two years.
Mulder, who confirms the meeting, has been a crucial middle ground in opposition party coalition talks — a Switzerland of sorts. He has chaired meetings to help parties find each other and build governments. The FF+ has been hailed by parties across the political spectrum, including Action SA and even the ANC, for the “sober” manner in which it deals with sensitive political power plays.
On this particular afternoon Mulder, Steenhuisen, McKenzie and another PA leader, Charles Cilliers, met over that favourite place among South African institutions, where commitments are made and deals are struck: the braai.
At the meeting, McKenzie tells the FM, there were informal discussions about the way in which positions could be shared between parties working together to run the Joburg council. The proposal was for the DA, as the largest party, to take up crucial council posts such as speaker and committee chairs; the PA was to take up the mayoral seat and two MMC positions; and the FF+ would hold the chair of chairs position.
As McKenzie tells it, the deal was a long way from being set in stone. Steenhuisen, he says, made it clear he would have to raise the issue with, and obtain approval from, the party’s federal executive, chaired by Helen Zille.
To McKenzie’s disappointment, it fell flat. He tells the FM that shortly after the meeting, the DA in Tshwane asked for the PA’s help in passing that metro’s budget. He rustled up his councillor the night before the budget vote, he says, and convinced her to vote with the DA. But the party’s first attempt to pass the budget was scuppered when DA coalition partner Good decided to side with the ANC.
Fast-forward two weeks. Mulder, McKenzie and the DA’s Gauteng leadership were meeting once more — formally this time, with other opposition parties in tow — to discuss the fate of the Joburg council. The meeting took place a day after a council sitting to elect a new mayor, following the resignation of Al Jama-ah Thapelo Amad.
The ANC and EFF spent the better part of the day managing caucus breakdowns of their own. For a start, the meeting was pushed out after ANC councillors pushed back against Gauteng ANC chair Panyaza Lesufi’s ambition to hand the mayorship to a small party, preferring their own Dada Morero for the position. For the coalition to muster the necessary votes, it had to take into account the EFF’s preference for a smaller party representative as mayor.
The delay gave the opposition parties some breathing room to iron out their own differences. But in the end, they couldn’t agree on a mayoral candidate, and so put forward two: the DA’s Mpho Phalatse and ActionSA’s Funzi Ngobeni.
The failure to unite around a candidate was not for lack of trying. The FM understands that during the day-long talks a number of scenarios were envisioned, including having McKenzie as a mayoral candidate, or PA chair Kenny Kunene.
There was, McKenzie says, even a point where the PA and ActionSA agreed that Phalatse should stand, and that they would vote in her favour. But a subsequent demand by the DA for the PA to renounce its working relationship with the ANC in other hung councils was a step too far, says McKenzie, and his party pulled out of the talks.
In the DA’s defence, it had previously been burnt by the PA and didn’t want the party’s flip-flopping between the DA-led coalition and the ANC to bring more instability to Joburg. Hence the demand for the PA to withdraw from its coalitions with the ANC, says DA provincial leader Solly Msimanga.
Meanwhile, on the ANC side, Luthuli House intervened in the impasse between its Joburg caucus and the party’s provincial leadership.
But a key complication for the ANC’s Joburg coalition was that the EFF’s long-standing demand for the mayoral seat in Ekurhuleni remained on the table. For the EFF to support Morero, in other words, the ANC would have to hand the mayoralty of the East Rand metro to Julius Malema’s red berets.
The only alternative was for a smaller party to be returned to the mayoral office in Joburg. The ANC caucus was whipped into line by party secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, and the city’s fate was sealed.
Only, this was a move that would seem to be at odds with an ANC policy, decided on just days before the national executive committee (NEC). In formulating a position around coalitions, the NEC had agreed that the largest party should take the lead in coalitions. Mbalula, however, tells the FM that this assessment misses the mark. In his view, the Joburg arrangement was in line with the ANC position, as it was the ANC that ultimately decided who would take up the post.
And that’s how Al Jama-ah got its second bite at the mayoral apple. With the backing of the ANC-EFF coalition, supported by the PA, one of the three-seat party’s councillors, Thapelo Gwamanda, took office.
One imagines Gwamanda would struggle to do much worse than his immediate predecessor. In his three-month stint as mayor, Amad was entirely out of his depth and seemed well on his way to handing over a city that once enjoyed an A-plus investment rating to salivating, dodgy loan sharks.
Phalatse, however, argues that Gwamanda is no better. She is going all out to prove that he is at the centre of an alleged funeral scheme scam; she says the DA has evidence to support the allegation and is taking it to the police.
In Msimanga’s view, Gwamanda may not even last a month in office. Which means the next round of mayoral musical chairs may be on the way.
Joburg may be the most extreme example of the instability plaguing coalition councils across the country, but the problems it faces are by no means confined to the large cities. Municipalities across the country have been hamstrung by political manoeuvring around coalitions — mostly by smaller parties that have finally obtained a seat at the table of power and are determined to make the most of it.
It’s changing the face of South African politics. With the country now firmly in coalition terrain, all political parties will need to make these governance arrangements work.
If current evidence is anything to go by, that’s a deeply worrying prospect.
‘The magic bullet’
An ANC elections workshop held over the weekend heard that the party may be able to turn its electoral fortunes around and obtain more than 50% of the vote in the national election next year. There are, however, some big “ifs” — including that it successfully addresses load-shedding, key service delivery issues and corruption. Given the infighting among key ministers in the energy sector, seemingly endemic corruption in the ANC and the glacial decision-making by President Cyril Ramaphosa, the idea would look to be dead in the water.
At the least, it suggests South Africa is on track to see coalition governments take shape at provincial level in the 2024 election — if not nationally — whether the larger parties like it or not.
That will take something of a turnaround from the ANC. For the most part, the ruling party has shown disdain for coalitions. That’s not to say it isn’t hedging its bets. It has put plans in place to embrace coalitions if there is no other option, while simultaneously voicing its aversion to sharing the levers of power.
For example, ANC political education head David Makhura, who was tasked with reporting back to the party’s top brass on how to stabilise coalitions, has previously told journalists that coalitions hamper development, and that the kind of development South Africa needs requires a strong central government, not one hampered by endless political bickering. In support of his argument, he cited successful Asian giants such as Singapore.
Mbalula, for his part, has loudly proclaimed that coalitions don’t work.
Even if this is so, it’s time for the ANC to grasp the reality of its precarious political position — and recognise that this is entirely its own fault.
As independent political analyst Ralph Mathekga tells the FM, the ANC has enjoyed dominance over national politics for nearly three decades — in 2004, it even obtained a two-thirds majority. But it has wasted the political and policy opportunities that offered.
“The irony is that, during the long period in which the ANC had a majority, it squandered it in terms of potent and transformational policy-making. In fact, the ANC performed badly even with its majority,” he says.
In an ironic twist, given Makhura’s earlier point, Mathekga says: “[The ANC] had the majority, they had the moral and electoral base to ensure Singapore-type development, but they failed to use it.”
There is no going back, he adds. But that means a shift in how government works. “We have not exhausted coalition politics in SA,” Mathekga says. “In fact we haven’t even got started.”
Still, the ANC is understandably loath to embrace the idea — it is, after all, seen by some as the first step in the liberation giant being removed from power.
It may not be wrong on that count.
“In my private life, I go to the movies and if you see a scary movie there is always this big menace — some undefeatable creature — but there is always something that can kill this menace; there is always that magic bullet,” Mulder tells the FM. “Our politics is the same. The only thing that can remove the ANC from power is coalitions, it is the magic bullet. The ANC knows that.”
Power to the small guy
Across South Africa, smaller parties are becoming kingmakers. It’s exposing their strengths, and weaknesses. Consider the PA’s flip-flopping in its attempts to hold sway in as many councils as possible, the EFF’s showboating as it demands key council positions and the internal implosion of the Congress of the People (Cope), laid bare when it reneged on its Joburg coalition agreement with the DA. It’s indicative of the outsize power small parties now exercise — but it also exposes their immaturity in matters of governance and, importantly, delivery.
Mulder dismisses the “small party” vs “big party” argument: “When you don’t get an outright majority, you are just a bigger small party. Coalitions are the future and it is a good thing. No one party has all the answers. Collective wisdom is a better system.”
So far, much of the focus has been on Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and coalition governments in the Western Cape. But the former ANC stronghold, the Northern Cape, has a record number of hung councils — from just three after the 2016 local elections to 10 after 2021. Two councils in the province are controlled by the DA; of the eight ANC-led councils, three are run by a PA-ANC tie-up.
It’s an arrangement that is stable and working relatively well so far, says ANC Northern Cape secretary Deshi Ngxanga.
A look at the situation on the ground may suggest something rather different. Take the Karoo Hoogland municipality. In the wake of the 2021 election, the PA controlled the council with the ANC’s support. Then, late last year the DA took over the council, with FF+ support, and after two PA councillors defected. In what could be perceived as cynical politicking, the PA last week supported the DA when the ANC brought a motion of no-confidence.
“It has its ups and downs,” Ngxanga says of the ANC’s relationship with the PA, “but so far it is working like a bomb. There are always issues around egos. The ANC has been in charge for so long and our own comrades are not used to coalitions. They found it difficult to adjust before we drilled it into them that this is the only way now.”
At the time the FM went to print, the ANC had turned its eye to the Kheis council, where it was looking to unseat a DA-led coalition. With Cope once again expected to jump ship and side with the ANC, it seems inevitable that power will be handed back to the ANC.
The PA believes the DA’s stance in Joburg — wanting it to turn its back on its ANC coalitions — has less to do with that city itself than with its tie-ups with the ANC in the Northern Cape and Western Cape. It’s about taking away the PA’s power in those provinces to safeguard the DA’s own position elsewhere.
It’s an approach that makes sense, especially for large players such as the ANC and the DA, which may struggle to hold on to their urban power bases as smaller parties attempt to bargain their way in by leveraging their support in very localised, limited areas.
McKenzie tells the FM in a late-night interview in Hyde Park on Sunday, on the back of a visit to white Afrikaner enclave Orania, that his party is on track to dethrone the EFF as a kingmaker in next year’s election.
“The night before the 2021 election, all journalists and analysts predicted we would get one or two seats. We got 85. But it is good that people underestimate us,” he says.
He has huge expectations for his 10-year-old party’s performance in 2024. “The PA will not get less than 10% next year. Mark my words. It will be the kingmaker. For the first time in 15 years a party other than the ANC and DA is winning wards in the Western Cape and that is the PA,” he says.
He adds that the PA won the Roodepan ward off the DA, a former stronghold for that party. And, he says, it obtained a two-thirds majority in Eldorado, where the DA was once dominant, winning 6,000 votes to the DA’s 1,200.
As for the ANC, McKenzie believes the party doesn’t see the electoral disaster it is facing. Former ANC strongmen have been deposed in three provinces with large ANC support bases, he says, referring to ousted former secretary-general Ace Magashule, former Mpumalanga chair and deputy president David Mabuza and former president Jacob Zuma in KwaZulu-Natal. This is on top of the party’s power crisis and credibility woes among the general electorate.
Then there’s the likelihood of a large protest vote against the ruling party as a result of its internal factional fights.
In McKenzie’s view, the ANC will get just 42% of the vote in 2024 — and if his party miraculously gets its 10%, it will give it considerable clout in a potential national coalition. In this, he has no shortage of ambition: in return for its support, the PA is eyeing the presidency itself.
It’s big talk but not out of keeping if you consider McKenzie is a former motivational speaker (and an ex-convict turned millionaire). He’s also quite unapologetic about the fact that, when it comes to politics, it’s power that excites him.
It’s not money, he says, adding: “I am not about and have never been about tenders.” It all comes down to power. “Those that say they’re not in it for power are lying.”
While McKenzie dismisses Steenhuisen’s moonshot pact as “barking at the moon”, analysts say his expectations are no less pie-in-the-sky. The PA’s support in the 2019 national election stood at 0.04%, they say; in the 2021 local election this increased to just 0.87% of the vote across the country. And no party has grown by 10 percentage points in a single election. Even the EFF’s growth has been limited to between two and three percentage points in each poll.
“Where will it get the votes?” Mathekga asks. “That would be a phenomenal performance, but it seems impossible.”
While the PA is kingmaker in some key councils now, it has shown itself to be a fickle partner. It’s not exactly a strategy for growth at the national level, he says, and it could backfire.
In any event, a much more realistic scenario is for the ANC to get about 50% of the vote and for the PA to grow to about 2%. That would give it a solid negotiating position — but no more so than any number of other parties.
Still, McKenzie is bullish. He believes his party is on track to win the Northern Cape outright and to push the DA in the Western Cape below 50%, which would be an enticing drawcard for a PA tie-up to an ANC long seeking a way back into that province.
That’s not to say it won’t face stiff opposition. Ngxanga says the ANC in the Northern Cape is not resting on its laurels, and is working hard to win back the confidence of voters. Still, the FM understands that the ANC’s own research shows it is in danger of losing an outright majority in the province.
As for the DA, McKenzie believes the party “will need us in the Western Cape” — though it “will not dictate our strategy”. So determined is he for his party to be the kingmaker, and to gain a toehold on power, that he says he’s prepared to work with either the ANC or the DA.
For all the talk, however, a DA tie-up seems implausible, given the rocky relationship between the parties so far.
As Msimanga tells the FM, the DA has been burnt by the PA before. And it is the DA that has the most to lose in tying itself to unreliable partners, he adds: its reputation is hit hardest when smaller parties such as Cope and the PA jump ship.
“Remember, it was the PA who went back on the first coalition agreement with us which began the instability in Joburg,” he says.
He’s referring to the period in 2022 before Phalatse was first voted out of mayoral office and speaker Vasco da Gama was ousted. The PA had wanted to reopen the signed coalition agreement the DA had in place for the city. When the DA refused, the PA threw in its lot with the ANC and EFF, he says.
“Our approach is that before we talk about names, about positions, let’s pin down the principles we are going to stand for. The PA has been the most unreliable for the DA, we would be more comfortable if they stayed the course. They were the reason the coalition collapsed three times; they keep switching sides,” Msimanga says.
While McKenzie believes the DA took a hard line in Joburg because it was trying to “decampaign” the party in the Western Cape, Msimanga tells a different story. He says the reason the PA came back to the recent coalition talks with opposition parties is because the ANC and EFF snubbed it in Ekurhuleni, leaving it short when executive positions were doled out.
“They were trying to prove a point to the ANC,” he says. “They are not genuinely committed to the opposition coalition.”
A rocky road ahead
However much it may smack of political opportunism, South Africa’s smaller parties are for the first time since the dawn of democracy in the position to have a powerful say in directing the trajectory of the country — and many are relishing it.
But while the fragmentation of the electorate may work to the benefit of the political minnows, it spells greater instability for the country at large.
Internationally, there are three factors that underlie unstable coalitions, Heidi Brooks, Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection senior researcher, writes on academic website The Conversation Africa: agreements between parties with vast ideological differences; countries where one dominant party has been in power for an extended period; and weak and fragmented opposition parties.
“South Africa faces all three problems,” she notes. “It has a dominant party legacy. It has party dysfunctionality. And it has a fragmented opposition. If experience elsewhere is anything to go by, South Africa’s current political and institutional dynamics are unlikely to cultivate stable and accountable coalitions.”
In the absence of legislation to formalise coalition pacts, the new political era is set to be a bumpy one. The smaller players will be the ones to watch in next year’s elections. But, so far, they’re proving to be awkward bedfellows.
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