“Don’t feel sorry for me. When I raised my hand, I knew what was coming.”
This was the reassurance Kgosientsho David Ramokgopa gave his closest relatives on his appointment this month as minister in the presidency responsible for electricity.
It is a dramatic promotion for the 48-year-old — his first stint as a fully fledged minister — but a poisoned chalice. That’s something to which André de Ruyter, the last guy who tried to upset the rotting electricity apple cart that is Eskom, can attest. While on the job as Eskom CEO, his coffee was laced with cyanide.
“People are going to be swearing at you, they will be calling you names, they will be attacking you ... R4m! Can you imagine?”
It’s late on Sunday, and Ramokgopa — just 144-odd hours into the job — is speaking to the FM after a long day of meetings and interviews. That R4m reference is to posts on social media suggesting he was wearing a R4m Patek Philippe Nautilus watch during his swearing in last Tuesday. It’s the type of timepiece favoured by royals and overrated Hollywood movie stars.
“No, no — I’ll show you, it’s one of those fake things. You know, I was going to be screened. It’s not worth R4m and I’ve had it for years and there are many others that I buy.
“At least someone thinks it’s worth R4m,” he laughs.
You would think that the appointment of a minister dedicated to ending load-shedding would be welcomed, given the crippling effects on the economy. Instead, it’s been met with deep scepticism; social media is awash with pictures of Ramokgopa’s watch and his dance moves at a recent family function.
It’s a cynical reaction that’s indicative of South Africans’ deep distrust of politicians, wrought by years of corruption and broken promises. But it’s not about to distract Ramokgopa, he says, from perhaps the most crucial mission in the country right now, and the most difficult: to end load-shedding.
“I do understand the anger and frustration of our people. I mean, people have lost jobs and all of that ... Now, for as long as load-shedding is not over, you are the minister of load-shedding, so accept that you will be called names,” he says. “But we will resolve the problem.”
Intervening in your home
Born in Atteridgeville in 1975, Ramokgopa — a former mayor of Tshwane — has a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering, a master’s in public administration and a PhD in public affairs.
He’s a former CEO of the Joburg Market, and proudly declares that it grew from a R2bn turnover business to R6.5bn during his tenure. It was, he adds, the largest fresh produce market by volume in the world at the time.
Gauteng ANC leaders who know Ramokgopa well say he is a technocrat, an avid reader, a stickler for detail and passionate about new and innovative technology. He was, for instance, the first mayor in South Africa to introduce Wi-Fi in a municipality, and he introduced a system to incorporate small businesses into Tshwane’s waste collection responsibilities.
His failed bid to introduce a smart electricity metering system in the metro — the infamous contract with Peu Capital Partners — was slammed by opposition parties and set aside by the Constitutional Court because of a failure to follow due process.
(The DA-led administration in Tshwane last year also came under fire for pushing ahead with an unsolicited bid, this one by a company to take over the running of a power station. It, too, had to abandon the project after an outcry from its coalition partners.)
Ramokgopa admits that the city bungled the process, and regrets that the contract was set aside. But he maintains that the technology would have eliminated the issue of municipal debt that plagues Eskom now. In any event, he adds, it’s “pointless to cry over spilt milk”.
He says the contract was the result of an unsolicited bid: Peu approached the city saying it had the technology for pay-as-you-go electricity, but also — crucially — it would enable the city to turn off geysers remotely, and control electricity demand.
The idea of switching off geysers remotely is one that Ramokgopa believes in as a way to alleviate the crushing demand for electricity. It’s this side of the equation — the demand side — that he considers the “easier” part of his mandate.
“Households consume 15.9% of capacity and, during peak, 35% of installed capacity — and 30% of that is on account of geysers, so we need to do something about that,” he explains.
Hence the push to switch off geysers — and not just relying on households to do so themselves. “One of the things we are looking at is technology which makes it possible for us to switch off geysers remotely,” he says.
It’s a controversial idea, opening the path for the utility to intervene directly in people’s houses.
But in a discussion with Eskom board chair Mpho Makwana, Ramokgopa says he was informed that this switch-off strategy was used by the utility as part of the infamous “keep the lights on” strategy for the 2010 Soccer World Cup.
Preliminary number-crunching suggests a possible saving of 4,000MW, he says. It’s not pie-in-the-sky, if Makwana is to be believed. He apparently told Ramokgopa that, by encouraging households to switch off geysers, the utility saved about 3,000MW during the 2010 peak.
“Imagine if we achieve that now,” he says.
But if this demand side is the easy part of the job, the supply side is likely to give Ramokgopa sleepless nights, given Eskom’s teetering energy availability factor, now below 60% for the first time.
It’s what he’ll be eating, sleeping and breathing for the foreseeable future.
As part of that, he’s planning to spend a week visiting Eskom’s “big six”, the utility’s six problem children: Kendal, Majuba, Tutuka, Kusile, Duvha and Matla.
These power stations — notorious for the most outages — are the root cause of South Africa’s descent into stage 4-6 load-shedding.
But all this is not new: in a media briefing last August, public enterprises and mineral resources & energy ministers Pravin Gordhan and Gwede Mantashe outlined initiatives to improve the performance at these plants. But like much in the government, little has been done by way of implementation, and South Africans have borne the consequences: nearly 200 successive days of load-shedding.
Hence President Cyril Ramaphosa’s grand plan for a minister of electricity.
Ramokgopa explains the rationale: “This [lack of implementation] has been the main shortcoming in the government’s response ... It is why the president said, ‘no, no, this cannot be. You, minister of electricity, you wake up every day and ask the questions on why there is no implementation, on why things have stalled, on what is going wrong.’”
It’s an attempt to mitigate the existing problem, where the responsible minister — public enterprises — “disengages” from Eskom, then “goes to Denel, SAA and all of that, addressing the myriad challenges there, and comes back three months later and asks where we are and finds that the progress is almost absent or unimpressive; six months later, absent or unimpressive”, he says.
Ramokgopa says that by contrast, this is his sole job.
“I am not waiting for a report that’s going to come a month, two months later. Every second of every day, I am at this or that power station to ask those questions ... We can then say to the Eskom board and senior managers, ‘take action here’, and we could find there are objective reasons why things are not happening, and that is where we can step in to assist ... if need be, as a last resort, by invoking the national disaster regulations.”
He will, in other words, be both project manager and trouble shooter. And he’ll be focusing specifically on these six power stations, to get them into a more reliable state.
His old friend and former Tshwane ANC councillor, Kgosi Maepa, says this is the kind of challenge Ramokgopa lives for. “He is very intelligent, kind of a trailblazer,” he tells the FM. “When he was young and battled with mathematics, he had no-one to assist. Of course, his mum would sit with him until late at night — but just for moral support. He would sit there and persevere until he solved the problem.”
‘Rare’ skills in government
Analysts who have observed, or worked with, Ramokgopa in his previous role as head of infrastructure and investment in the presidency agree that he is the most technically competent ANC leader for the role — with the advantage of having the full backing of the presidency.
Nkhumeleni Thavhiwa, director of fixed income at asset manager NinetyOne, tells the FM he is optimistic about Ramokgopa’s tenure.
“He is technically competent; he knows the issues. It is rare in government to have his level of technical competence, which is necessary for the role he is in now. He is also young and energetic and wants to prove himself,” Thavhiwa tells the FM.
A decided advantage is the location of the portfolio in the presidency. This should circumvent the so-called cold war between Gordhan and Mantashe on the issue of Eskom.
Ramokgopa is fully aware that this will be complex terrain to navigate, but he says he has solid relationships with both ministers, and intends to exploit those to get the job done. Crucially, he’s been given the authority to push through interventions quickly.
“Look, it would be the height of folly to suggest that it’s going to be easy,” he says. “I guess that once we start to roll out a number of these interventions, it will call for a degree of patience and engagement with [Gordhan and Mantashe]. But I must say, the initial discussions I have had with them separately suggest they support the decision by the president.”
A government insider tells the FM that Ramaphosa’s support is crucial if Ramokgopa is to navigate his space successfully — but, of course, he already has it, given his previous work in the presidency.
Ramokgopa is at pains to stress that his appointment is not a belated start by the government to resolve load-shedding. “There were those attempts before, but I think everyone can see they have not yielded the kind of fruits that we want, and that’s why the president said: ‘Let there be a dedicated approach’,” he says.
It’s not about reinventing the wheel: the government’s energy action plan is in place, and Ramokgopa will make sure it is implemented; the initiatives begun last August by Gordhan are there, and he will make sure they are seen through, he says.
Like NinetyOne’s Thavhiwa, Business Leadership South Africa’s Busi Mavuso is optimistic about Ramokgopa’s tenure. In fact, one of the first meetings the new minister held after being sworn in was with organised business.
“A champion who can align all of the parties and drive reforms through to completion would be extremely welcome. The minister is clear that we do not need new plans — we just need to implement the existing ones,” Mavuso wrote in a newsletter this week.
An analyst who is watching Ramokgopa’s work closely has hailed his performance in the infrastructure sector, saying he played a crucial role in unblocking particular projects in the private sector, getting political backing and cutting red tape.
“I think he has been solid as an infrastructure co-ordinator — definitely smart and enthusiastic — which already sets him apart from most cabinet ministers,” the analyst says.
In Ramokgopa’s view, business has already come to the party through its significant contribution to the R100m resource mobilisation fund, which will finance the national energy crisis committee.
Among Ramokgopa’s most pressing concerns is who will replace De Ruyter, an appointment that must be made by the Eskom board. It will, he says, allow for better interaction between his office and Eskom.
“I’m definitely worried,” he says. “The CEO must be the flag bearer. It’s also just a sign of stability ... So we are sitting with [this] magnitude of [a] problem and still we don’t have a permanent person ...
“I got assurance from the board that they are moving with speed to make the appointment. The best I could do is just to impress upon them the importance of having a CEO. Of course I can’t interfere in that.”
‘Corruption isn’t my job’
Ramokgopa is painfully aware of the weight of his role — load-shedding is the single biggest threat to South Africa’s economy, stability and potential. And internal polling and research shows it has had a seismic effect on the ANC’s electoral prospects. So his success is crucial not only to the economy and government, but also to the ANC’s prospects in the 2024 election and beyond.
Getting it right could see his career reach heights never imagined, say ANC insiders.
“The president placed his trust in him, it’s already a big endorsement. If he succeeds, there will be big rewards for him,” one insider says. “I am confident in him, but hope he won’t be tempted by money like many others in the energy space.”
On his future prospects, Ramokgopa remains coy, saying his only interest at present is to bring an end to load-shedding.
“If I win ... the country wins,” he says. “Of course history will record that I am leading that effort, but I think for me it’s less about the individual ... I think load-shedding is really holding back the potential of this country.”
At least he’s under no illusion about what is at stake.
“I was reading a study the other day that the cost of unserviced energy is about R500bn per annum, the [South African Reserve Bank] suggests that load-shedding [causes the economy to contract] by 2.1 percentage points quarter on quarter. So that’s significant
“Energy and electricity is by far the biggest impediment to growth and I think the idea of having someone dedicated to, and breathing and eating the resolution of load-shedding ... will have an impact. To fashion the best response and using the tools of the state of disaster, we can achieve more.”
The elephant in the room remains corruption, which is likely to present a huge challenge for Ramokgopa. On this matter, he’s blunt, saying he has neither the mandate nor the capacity to deal with corruption at Eskom. What he can do is visit the plants, and see for himself — but, ultimately, it’s the responsibility of the CEO and law enforcement.
Still, it is something he’ll have to grapple with. Unions told the FM recently that 70%-80% of Eskom staff are involved in some form of corrupt activity — and this is a prime driver of load-shedding.
Professor Susan Booysen, director of research at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection, tells the FM that Ramokgopa seems to know the terrain he has to traverse quite well. But whether he’ll be able to shift the needle is the question.
“It is really an impenetrable beast he has to tackle here ... I just don’t see what he can bring to the table now to end load-shedding in the short term,” she says.
And, she adds, starting a new government department is no picnic: the most recently created ministry — of small business — took years to take shape.
But the pressure will be on, given the political consequences if Ramokgopa doesn’t get it right. “[This] is a direct intervention by the president, potential failure will mean the government and the president have failed,” Booysen says. “There is no-one on the outside to blame — [Ramokgopa] is one of their own.”
Ramokgopa has a deep understanding of the brutal terrain that is ANC politics. But even that may not be enough. What is clear, though, is that he is determined to wrestle the Eskom beast down.
“Someone must do it,” he says. “I think I have the capability, working with the collective, I have the support of the president, the ministers, and players in the ecosystem. We will succeed.”
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