Though the pandemic has come and largely gone, it continues to cast a long shadow. That much is clear from the residential property market, where Covid-related shifts in how and where people work, live and play seem to have reshaped the home ownership landscape for good.
The FM’s annual top suburbs rankings — the 11th year in which we’ve partnered with research and analytics group Lightstone to crunch the numbers — reveal which individual suburbs and gated estates have been the biggest beneficiaries of new buying trends.
The survey ranks suburbs in the four major metros (Joburg, Cape Town, Tshwane and eThekwini) in terms of capital growth performance. We’ve taken a three-year view, which we believe provides the most reliable picture of post-Covid changes in demand.
This will, after all, affect the price performance and investment returns that homebuyers are likely to achieve in individual provinces, cities and neighbourhoods.
We look at three price categories: the lower segment (suburbs where houses sell for an average R1m-R2m); the middle end (R2m-R5m); and the luxury market (more than R5m). And we only considered suburbs and estates where more than 10 sales a year were recorded.
From this, a few general trends in the property market have emerged:
- Price growth in Cape Town firmly outstrips that in Joburg, Tshwane and eThekwini. Industry players say the trend has been fuelled by renewed semigration to the Cape, as well as perceptions that the metro’s DA-led council runs a tighter ship than other cities when it comes to municipal service delivery and the upkeep of critical infrastructure.
- Buyers are prioritising suburbs that offer bigger homes on larger stands and with renovation potential to facilitate remote working and homeschooling and entertaining.
- There’s high demand for areas that offer easy access to open spaces and scenic outdoor attractions (hiking, walking, cycling and horse trails; beaches; wine farms) away from crowds.
- Gated golf and lifestyle estates, especially those in countrified settings with outdoor, leisure and sports amenities, continue to outperform.
- A search for value is evident in the lower to middle price brackets, with a number of older, cheaper suburbs coming to the fore.
Joburg
The most noticeably new trend in Joburg is the rise of well-established but previously unloved suburbs that offer spacious properties in need of some TLC.
Top performers in this category include the old Randburg stalwarts of Bordeaux, Franklin Roosevelt Park and Blairgowrie, which are centrally located within the ring road. They’re all within easy reach of the key business hubs of Sandton and Rosebank, as well as good schools, malls and hospitals.
These three suburbs were largely overlooked in the city’s previous regeneration drive, when upper-middle-income buyers gravitated towards the trendy “parks” area (Parkhurst, Parktown North and Parkview).
Joburg buyers are clearly looking for more bang for their buck in terms of square meterage and plot size. Bordeaux, Franklin Roosevelt Park and Blairgowrie offer a selection of spacious and sturdy three- to four-bedroom standalone homes on plots of at least 1,000m2 for R1.7m-R2.7m.
Crowthorne, near the Kyalami racetrack in Midrand, tops the middle-income charts over three years. Alisha Dippenaar, manager for Seeff Sandton, says the area attracts buyers who want to live in secure housing complexes. Sectional-title developers such as Balwin are active in the area.
She says Crowthorne is centrally located between Centurion and Sandton, with easy access to the N1 highway, and a stone’s throw from mixed-use development Waterfall City, with its array of offices, shops (Mall of Africa), schools and leisure amenities.
Estate living ranks highly among Joburg’s well-heeled: Dainfern Valley and Dainfern Golf Estate in Fourways, on the city’s northern outskirts, again emerge as winning suburbs in the luxury segment.
Chas Everitt International area specialist Brian Falconer says Dainfern Golf Estate — one of the first housing estates to be developed in South Africa, back in 1991 — is fully built. It comprises 1,239 properties, most of which are freehold homes, though there are a few clusters. Prices range from R4m-R35m.
The estate is built around a Gary Player-designed golf course and offers a range of other sporting amenities (tennis, squash, soccer), running and walking trails, on-site restaurants, and a whiskey and bridge club. A broad retail offering, Virgin Active gym and private school (Dainfern College) are on its doorstep.
Other private schools in the area include HeronBridge College, Steyn City School, Reddam House in Helderfontein and Curro at Monaghan Farm.
Falconer says buyers include senior corporate executives, established professionals and successful entrepreneurs with families who value the peace of mind offered by the estate’s first-rate security, as well as its whole-life range of amenities.
“These dovetail very well with the strong work-from-home trend that has been particularly evident among upmarket homebuyers since the emergence of the pandemic in 2020,” he says.
Neighbouring Dainfern Valley also offers secure living in a countrified setting, with 7km of walking, cycling and jogging trails along the Jukskei River. The estate has direct access via a golf-cart path to Dainfern College, and buyers qualify for membership of the Dainfern golf club.
Falconer says that unlike Dainfern Golf Estate, Dainfern Valley still has undeveloped stands for buyers who want to build new homes. Prices of standalone homes on plots of roughly 1,000m2 vary from R4.5m-R30m. Sectional-title properties are on offer at lower prices.
Old-money enclaves traditionally favoured by Joburg’s super-rich also appear in this year’s top five rankings. Among these are Hyde Park and Atholl, both within a stone’s throw of Rosebank and Sandton.
Cape Town
The Atlantic seaboard’s swanky suburbs of Fresnaye, Camps Bay and Clifton — perennial top-end outperformers — have this year been pipped to the post by gated estates in the more remote southern peninsula area of Noordhoek (The Lakes), and, in areas northwest of the city, Melkbosstrand (Atlantic Beach Golf Estate) and Milnerton (Sunset Beach).
Scarborough, on the southern peninsula bordering the Cape Point Nature Reserve, is the Mother City’s top performer in the R2m-R5m bracket. The unspoilt coastal village is popular among surfers and those looking to live off the beaten track.
Pam Golding Properties (PGP) group CEO Andrew Golding says sales on the southern peninsula have boomed over the past two years on the back of remote and hybrid working. This has allowed city dwellers to move further away from Cape Town’s key business hubs to smaller communities in scenic coastal surrounds.
He says the Noordhoek, Scarborough, Misty Cliffs and Kommetjie area, known for its “barefoot luxury” lifestyle, has been a notable beneficiary of that trend. Prices typically fall in the R4m-R12m range.
Deon Labuschagne of Seeff Noordhoek says Noordhoek is especially attractive to those relocating from Gauteng, as well as to international buyers, because of its selection of larger homes and stands.
He says Noordhoek’s famous 8km Long Beach, which stretches all the way to Kommetjie and is frequented by horse riders, is a major drawcard.
Noordhoek Farm Village, the hangout of choice among locals and tourists alike, is home to a number of bespoke stores selling a selection of organic vegetables and artisanal produce. The village also offers gourmet dining at The Foodbarn restaurant, live music venue Café Roux and laid-back local village pub The Toad in the Village.
The Lakes, a boomed-off area surrounding Lake Michelle, which incorporates Lake Michelle Security & Eco Estate, attracts younger families in particular. Central to the 90ha development bordering Table Mountain National Park is a 22ha lake in which residents are allowed to swim, fish, sail and canoe.
There are also seven ponds and lots of open spaces on the estate, with plenty of fish and birdlife. Properties in the latest phase are built in the Cape Cod style. Prices of townhouses start from R2m and standalone homes from R4m.
Old favourites Atlantic Beach Golf Estate in the west coast village of Melkbosstrand, and Sunset Beach on the western Atlantic seaboard between Milnerton and Blaauwberg, have reappeared in this year’s R5m-plus ranking.
Clearly, communal living in upscale gated communities with on-site leisure amenities has lost none of its cachet among wealthy Capetonians.
The search for value among lower- and middle-income buyers has elevated demand in Bellville suburbs La Rochelle and Boston, neighbouring Brackenfell’s Bernadino Heights and Northpine, and Kraaifontein, on Cape Town’s northeastern outskirts.
Estate agents say these areas are popular among first-time buyers looking to upgrade from nearby townships and the Cape Flats. They provide easy access to the N1 highway, R101 and R102 — the city’s key blue-collar industrial nodes — and Cape Town International Airport.
Tshwane
The jacaranda city is known for its many countrified golf and lifestyle developments. So it’s no surprise that estates continue to triumph in our price performance rankings.
The winning gated communities in the R2m-R5m bracket include new entrant Six Fountains Residential Estate, as well as previous outperformer Copperleaf Golf Estate and Blue Valley Golf & Country Estate, both of which are in Centurion, south of the city.
Copperleaf, the newer of the two estates, borders private school Pinnacle College, a big drawcard for younger families. Besides the Ernie Els-designed golf course, amenities include a dedicated mountain bike and hiking trail, wellness and health centre, spa, gym, tennis courts, swimming pools and a cricket pavilion.
Ilma Brink, PGP development manager for Pretoria, says Six Fountains Residential Estate, next to affluent golf estate Silver Lakes on Pretoria’s eastern outskirts, offers tranquil living within relaxed surroundings with a number of schools, malls and hospitals in easy reach. Buyers are lured by the open spaces, abundance of birdlife, and catch-and-release fishing in dams stocked with bass, carp and kurper.
Brink cites Six Fountains’s mix of offerings at different price points as another plus: multistorey apartments, semidetached townhouses, clusters and full-title standalone homes go for R1.5m-R7m.
Tshwane, like eThekwini, has fewer suburbs than Joburg and Cape Town where average sales prices trend above R5m. But Mooikloof Equestrian Estate, also on the eastern outskirts, remains the most desirable place to live among the city’s wealthy movers and shakers. The estate, which has free-roaming antelope as well as equestrian facilities, offers its residents an unmatched luxury country lifestyle.
Seeff Pretoria east MD Gerhard van der Linde says prices of grand homesteads, many of which exceed 1,000m2 under roof and are on sprawling 10,000m2 plots, typically range from R6m-R11m. Top-end trophy homes can fetch up to R29m.
Southdowns Estate, in the village of Irene, has also been a longtime favourite among well-heeled buyers — especially those looking to be near Midrand and Sandton. The estate is built on land that was originally part of the neighbouring 125-year-old Irene dairy farm.
A key attraction is Southdowns’s “green” features, including piped gas to all properties and water reticulation plants. The estate neighbours the Irene Country Club and a private school, Southdowns College. Prices for townhouses start from R2.7m, while free-standing homes sell from R4.5m upwards.
Tshwane’s top-performing lower-end suburbs include Jan Niemand Park, West Park and Danville — older areas on the northern and western outskirts close to the city’s industrial nodes.
eThekwini
A trek away from core suburbs within traditional city boundaries is also evident in eThekwini. The best-performing suburb in the R2m-R5m middle market is Waterfall, a countrified area that’s part of Hillcrest and Kloof, on the metro’s western outskirts.
Other standouts are Westbrook and Newsel Beach, both beachfront neighbourhoods on the far north coast, on the road to Umdloti and Ballito, and close to King Shaka International Airport.
Durbanites, like residents of Cape Town and Gauteng, have gravitated to coastal and countryside settings in a bid to escape congested urban areas.
Waterfall offers a number of low-density gated estates, with Cotswold Downs Golf & Country Estate the most desirable, says PGP area principal Alwina Muggeridge.
“Cotswold Downs is set against a backdrop of spectacular views, rolling hills, indigenous flora and fauna, top-class golfing and amazing birdlife, and is crisscrossed by numerous nature trails,’’ she says.
Prices for vacant land, townhouses and large standalone properties range from R795,000-R12m. Muggeridge says the area, which is on the doorstep of the Midlands Meander, offers an idyllic climate with beautiful warm days but lower humidity than in the Durban area.
Though it offers a quintessential country lifestyle, Waterfall is near top schools, shops, restaurants and other amenities.
Eternally sought-after Glenashley, near La Lucia Mall in Durban north, has retained its spot in the R2m-R5m bracket. So has gated Izinga Estate in nearby Umhlanga — the metro’s best-performing top-end suburb for the fifth year running.
Izinga Estate is the only neighbourhood in the greater eThekwini area where more than 10 houses have been sold over the past year at an average price of more than R5m.
Brett Botsis, Seeff’s licensee for Durban north, reckons Umhlanga is still top of mind for many of the city’s wealthy, with a “significant” uptick in R5m-R10m sales in the past two years.
He says Izinga Estate entrenched its status as one of eThekwini’s poshest addresses when two trophy homes were recently sold for more than R20m apiece. The access-controlled neighbourhood is nestled in the lush woodlands of Umhlanga Ridge and has sweeping seascapes. Prices range upwards of R7m depending on the size of the property and the views.
Nearby attractions include Umhlanga’s beach and promenade (though the beach has been periodically closed recently, due to poor water quality), Gateway Theatre of Shopping and several good restaurants and coffee shops. The area provides quick access to all major freeways, with King Shaka International Airport a 12-minute drive away.
Isipingo Hills, set amid a large industrial node to the south just off the N2 between the Bluff and Amanzimtoti, shines brightly among eThekwini’s entry-level suburbs.
Seeff Amanzimtoti agent Nelly Archary says Isipingo Hills attracts middle-class family buyers who want to be close to the area’s employment opportunities. The Galleria and Arbour Crossing Mall are within easy reach, as are several schools and hospitals.
The area offers predominantly freehold properties. Three-bedroom, two-bathroom houses can still be had for about R1m.
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