Phala Phala: Ramaphosa’s Rubicon moment

The ANC is in a bind and, like the proverbial Gordian knot, it cannot be undone.

That much was clear last month already, when the ANC’s research team presented its findings at the party’s national executive committee (NEC) meeting. They were devastating.

Among them was that the party’s electoral support could slip to as little as 40% in the next election. While the ANC’s leader, Cyril Ramaphosa, proved more popular than the party itself, his support, too, had fallen to a mere 48%.

“It was one of the worst reports ever presented to the ANC leadership,” says an NEC member, speaking on condition of anonymity. “It was bad.”

What the report showed is that the leader who was meant to rescue the ANC from its electoral morass is now being dragged down with the party.

Still, the eight percentage point difference between the popularity of the party and that of its president is enough for many to mount a strident defence of Ramaphosa — even in the face of the elaborate set-up that’s dogging him right now.

It’s been a week of high drama, after the independent panel parliament appointed to determine whether there was sufficient evidence for Ramaphosa to face an impeachment inquiry released a scathing report on the Phala Phala saga last Wednesday. At the heart of it all is $580,000, stuffed in a couch and subsequently stolen from Ramaphosa’s Limpopo game farm. 

The panel, chaired by former chief justice Sandile Ngcobo, found there was “prima facie evidence” that Ramaphosa has a case to answer. 

It’s a finding that has dramatically shifted the landscape of South African politics, redefining the balance of power and casting a dark shadow over the economy.

Bring in the buffalo

Before the panel’s report, Ramaphosa was cruising towards a second term as party president — a country mile ahead of his opponent, former health minister Zweli Mkhize, who’s been badly tainted by the Digital Vibes communications contract scandal.

The Phala Phala panel report, however, will have taken the wind out of Ramaphosa’s sails. Even though he is still the likely winner to lead the party, the shadow of the scandal will hover well into his second term as party president.

It’s a curious affair. The revelations around the theft — and questions around the status of the stashed dollars — remain under investigation by the Hawks, the public protector and the Reserve Bank. And there’s a strong chance that these probes will find no wrongdoing on the part of the president. On top of it all, the bizarre tale of the burglary and its aftermath comes from none other than former spy boss Arthur Fraser, who is himself heavily implicated in corruption. 

Ramaphosa’s explanation is that the dollars were the proceeds of the sale of buffaloes to a Sudanese buyer; that a stand-in farm manager had taken delivery of the cash; and that the manager had hidden the money in the couch, thinking it the safest place in the Phala Phala residence. The buffaloes, it turned out, had never left the farm.

The story may seem barely credible, but Sky News this week tracked down the buffalo buyer, Hazim Mustafa. In an interview that provided the first real indication that Ramaphosa was telling the truth, Mustafa told Sky News and local journalist Vauldi Carelse that he had indeed bought the animals from Ramaphosa. He had paid in cash, he said, from funds that he’d declared when he entered the country, and he hadn’t taken delivery because of the Covid lockdown. He was, he added, going to be refunded for his purchase. 

In Mustafa’s telling, he had no idea he was buying buffaloes from South Africa’s president, as he dealt only with a broker — stand-in farm manager Sylvester Ndlovu.

This version of events must present something of a conundrum for Ngcobo’s report, given its damning finding on the foreign currency. “On the source of the foreign currency, we only have the statement by the president which is based on what he was told by Mr Ndlovu, who did not confirm this information,” the report said. 

The FM understands that amid the furore surrounding the release of the report — which found Ramaphosa may have violated the constitution as well as the Prevention & Combating of Corrupt Activities Act — Ramaphosa had phoned his oldest and most trusted allies: former National Union of Mineworkers leaders James Motlatsi and Frans Baleni. In that Thursday morning call, the president apparently informed them that he would be resigning — for the sake of both the ANC and the country. His intention was to tender his resignation at 4pm.

Motlatsi and Baleni, however, were having none of it. They immediately rallied the support of Ramaphosa’s allies in the ANC and government to convince him to stay on and fight. By Friday morning a provincial leader, exhausted from an all-night caucus, confirmed to the FM that Ramaphosa had agreed to stay. He’d also been persuaded to take the report on review (papers to that effect were filed at the Constitutional Court on Monday).

Ramaphosa’s central argument in his court papers is that the panel — the first of its kind in South Africa — misunderstood its mandate to determine whether there was “sufficient evidence” and instead focused on “prima facie evidence”. He also accused it of relying on evidence from Fraser that he believes is inadmissible. In particular, he took issue with the panel’s “misconstruing” information as evidence. 

The president is not alone in his criticism of the panel’s report. Lawson Naidoo, executive secretary of the Council for the Advancement of the South African Constitution, tells the FM the document is “incoherent”, containing “a lot of errors”. And, like Ramaphosa, he believes the panel “got the standard of proof wrong”. 

“The rules say there must be ‘sufficient evidence’, but they honed in on prima facie evidence; the standard is different — it is lower in the latter. It is basic legal interpretation, but they have somehow equated the two,” he says.

“The purpose of the panel is to sift through frivolous motions, and if it is relying on prima facie evidence, it is not fulfilling that purpose.” 

Naidoo emphasises, however, that the Phala Phala matter isn’t a legal or constitutional crisis; it is a political one, and should have been resolved that way.

So, why is Ramaphosa in the middle of this political storm in a legal teacup?

The tragedy is he was weak enough to be set up. It is a matter of his own incompetence, his own indecisiveness and his own willingness to appoint and surround himself with mediocre, flawed people

—  ANC insider

 “He was set up,” a senior ANC insider tells the FM. “But the tragedy is he was weak enough to be set up. It is a matter of his own incompetence, his own indecisiveness and his own willingness to appoint and surround himself with mediocre, flawed people.”

Ultimately, it was a string of strange decisions that landed Ramaphosa in this mess.

First among them was appointing the tainted Fraser as correctional services commissioner when he should have been fired from the government. Then there was the appointment of Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula as parliamentary speaker. She’d been shuffled out of the cabinet after memorably taking radical economic transformation (RET) head honchos on a defence department-sponsored jaunt to Zimbabwe. And that was before her dismal handling of the July 2021 unrest is factored into the equation.

These decisions came back to bite him. It was Fraser who released Jacob Zuma on medical parole (a decision now set aside by the courts), and Mapisa-Nqakula who took it upon herself to appoint Ngcobo to head the panel, ignoring recommendations handed to her by parties in parliament. These included such names as former justices Sisi Khampepe and Edwin Cameron and former public protector Thuli Madonsela — and, notably, not Ngcobo. 

Ramaphosa has made other missteps. He appointed Gen Wally Rhoode as head of the presidential protection unit on advice from his close ally Marion Sparg, for example, rather than former Hawks boss Anwa Dramat. 

“He should be impeached for stupidity,” the party insider says.

Speed bumps ahead

For the moment, Ramaphosa has some breathing space. Parliament will only decide next Tuesday whether to start the process of impeachment. But at this point, the idea seems likely to be voted down.

Mashatile told journalists this week that the ANC had decided at an NEC meeting on Monday that it wouldn’t support the creation of an ad hoc committee to decide on impeachment.

But while the NEC seems firm on its decision to back Ramaphosa, there is at least one speed bump ahead: the ANC itself, that paragon of own goals that Ramaphosa has propped up electorally and, to an extent, financially (see box). 

On the release of the panel findings, the party flipped straight into its default setting: factional warfare.

At a hastily convened NEC meeting on Friday, former president Thabo Mbeki was on the warpath. He had warned in recent weeks that the ANC should be ready to act if it turned out there was substance to the allegations against Ramaphosa. He urged the party to prepare for the fallout — no doubt knowing full well the predictions of the ANC’s spectacular electoral decline.

Not helping matters was that Ramaphosa didn’t attend the NEC meeting — he was in consultations, according to ANC treasurer-general Paul  Mashatile — but Mbeki demanded that he be present. The result was that the meeting was disbanded so the matter could be properly “processed”.

By Monday, the NEC had decided to back Ramaphosa in parliament. Mbeki and the president are said to have met privately, and the former statesman barely spoke during the meeting, sources say.

Not so the remnants of the Zuma-linked RET faction. NEC members Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, Tony Yengeni, Tandi Mahambehlala and Nomvula Mokonyane were on the attack. Not that their barrages amounted to much: Ramaphosa backers say the group was largely shut down.

But there’s another hurdle Ramaphosa still has to clear: on Friday, the party’s integrity committee will present a report to the NEC laying out whether he should step aside from his position.

His backers are ready for that fight.

“The [integrity committee] said Zweli [Mkhize] should step aside, and because he is taking the Special Investigating Unit report on review, that decision was held in abeyance,” says an NEC member, speaking to the FM on condition of anonymity.

Similarly, the argument is that because Ramaphosa is taking the panel report on review, any decision should be held off pending the court outcome. 

However, should the integrity committee find that Ramaphosa should indeed step aside, his opponents in the NEC could push for the party to change tack in parliament and vote for an ad hoc committee to decide about impeachment. This is a long shot, though, given the damage such a move would inflict on the party itself. 

Bad timing

Tuesday’s parliamentary sitting takes place just three days before the ANC’s national elective conference starts at Nasrec. And despite the Phala Phala damage, Ramaphosa remains in pole position: the FM’s calls to various regions show there has been little change in the sentiment at branch level. In fact, Waterberg regional secretary Rufus Magoro tells the FM “branches have now multiplied in terms of viewing the president as the best leader to take the ANC forward”. 

Baleni tells the FM there are no candidates who can compare with Ramaphosa in the upcoming race. “As things stand, there is no alternative,” he says. 

ANC chair Gwede Mantashe says something similar. “We have no obvious replacement, and this is a mess,” he tells the FM.

Yes, this does damage the ANC. But if he leaves, it will hurt the ANC more

—  Gwede Mantashe

Mantashe — a staunch Ramaphosa supporter who played a crucial role in neutralising his opponents this week — is frank in his assessment of the Phala Phala situation: “Yes, this does damage the ANC. But if he leaves, it will hurt the ANC more.” 

At the very least, it has highlighted a lack of leadership depth within the party. Mantashe believes the ANC should focus on electing a collective of leaders with “potential” between now and 2024, ensuring they are groomed to take over from Ramaphosa when he exits the political stage after his second term.

But if things go against Ramaphosa in parliament, this process would have to be fast-tracked — and then some.

The upcoming conference has become a key site of struggle in the ANC’s never-ending factional intrigues. But Ramaphosa’s backers are confident he will be re-elected.

“I think he will come back much stronger after having learnt crucial lessons over the past five years. Sometimes it is not worth trying to coalesce people around an agenda they do not agree with,” says ANC Northern Cape provincial chair Zamani Saul, referring to the RET leaders still lodged in the NEC. 

“For him, it’s an issue of legacy. Under Mbeki and Zuma renewal was halfhearted or nonexistent, [Ramaphosa] is going to push ahead with it.”

Central to the success of a second term will be the ANC members who fill the remaining positions in the top six and in the broader 80-member NEC. On the latter, things are not looking good: branches have rallied behind questionable characters such as Malusi Gigaba, Mduduzi Manana, Andile Lungisa and Mokonyane. These nominations alone are a stark indication that, for ANC structures, renewal is but a slogan. 

Still, Saul is not ruling out the nomination of more credible leaders from the conference floor. By his reckoning, about 30%-40% of those who made it onto the NEC at the last conference were nominated in that manner.

But it is the top six who could pose a greater headache for the Ramaphosa camp. 

The front-runner for deputy president remains Mashatile, with the largest share of branch nominations so far. He’s not trusted by the Ramaphosa camp — but he’s also not aligned to Mkhize.

Backers of the former health minister — and RET favourite — are on the hunt for a candidate for deputy president. That could be tourism minister Lindiwe Sisulu or 2017 presidential also-ran Dlamini Zuma.

Mashatile’s neutrality is by design. NEC member and key Mashatile ally Nkenke Kekana tells the FM that his campaign for deputy president has a central theme running through it: he doesn’t want to be associated with any faction. 

“Factions are very harmful to the ANC, they never produce a quality, united leadership. Paul has been committed to destroying factions and, for that, branches have shown confidence in him,” Kekana says.

He adds: “We want to destroy factions and I think we have succeeded so far.”

But Kekana is concerned that, ahead of the conference, there have been few discussions on strategies to fix the severe problems facing the country, including the crisis at Eskom, unemployment, crime, gender-based violence and education. 

He explains that the party’s own research has shown time and again that voters find “an inward-looking” party — never mind one locked in internecine conflict — off-putting, and stay home on election day as a result. 

Crunching the numbers

This isn’t something unique to ANC supporters.

“Voters don’t like it generally. It doesn’t help them, it doesn’t provide jobs [and] services, so it is definitely a turn-off, not just among ANC voters, but even for the DA and the EFF,” says independent elections analyst Dawie Scholtz.

He weighs in on what other surveys show about the ANC and Ramaphosa’s electoral support: News24 research last year put the ANC’s support at about 48% and Ramaphosa’s at about 56%.

With the ANC’s own research now suggesting something closer to the 40% mark, there’s been a huge slide.

While Scholtz won’t comment on a study he hasn’t seen, he does provide insight into what by-elections over the past year indicate. On this measure, the ANC is down on its already poor showing in the 2021 local government elections.

He has tracked 33 wards that are historical ANC strongholds, with about 75,000 voters. The results show a consistent decline in ANC support, from about 71% in 2019 to 59% in 2021 and about 46% in by-elections this year.

Scholtz cautions, however, that the voting dynamics in by-elections are different, and turnout is generally lower. 

“[By-elections] can never tell you the exact kind of numbers, but they can show you the direction of travel, and the direction of travel here is super clear,” he says. “It shows you that the ANC is losing support below a level where they were last year … It doesn’t show exact numbers, but it does tell you that they are losing votes.” 

While Ramaphosa may be tied up putting out Phala Phala fires well into his second term, this suggests the ANC as a whole has its own fight for survival to wage.

A darkening dawn

The conference next week will determine the kind of leaders the party takes on the 2024 campaign trail. But the fight over who they will be is going to be messy — particularly as Ramaphosa’s camp will apparently move against Mashatile by nominating someone like water & sanitation minister Senzo Mchunu from the floor. 

Songezo Zibi, director of think-tank the Rivonia Circle, believes Ramaphosa’s troubles — and the leaders he is likely to be surrounded by — don’t bode well for either the ANC or the country. As a result, his renewal project is destined to fail.

“Mbeki tried … no president will remain in that [presidential] seat when they try to clean up that thing [the ANC]. When you try to clean it up, you will destroy it,” he says. “A renewed ANC and the current lot can’t exist side by side.” 

If anything, Phala Phala has thrown into sharp relief the parlous state of the party. It is, Zibi says, “a Rubicon moment” — a point at which South Africa decides how it will move forward without the ANC at the helm.

It’s a transition that is unlikely to be smooth, but it is inevitable. Ramaphosa’s week of torment foreshadows the party’s retreat from power. But that’s still a way off; for now, the scandal his rivals whipped up against him has thrown a dark shadow over his “new dawn”.

Additional reporting by Carien du Plessis

There’s no doubt that President Cyril Ramaphosa has been important for the ANC — and not least from a funding perspective. Apart from putting his own money into the party — R366,000, according to a submission to the Electoral Commission of South Africa — his image as a corruption-fighter has also attracted funding to the party.

That hasn’t, of course, alleviated the ANC’s financial woes. The party has been short of cash for salaries for the past year or two — a point that has been used to rally disgruntled staff against Ramaphosa.

According to a source within the party, the ANC’s cash crunch is underpinned by Ramaphosa signing the Political Party Funding Act into law — a move that has apparently created tension between him and party treasurer-general Paul Mashatile.

“When the president brought it [the act] into operation, Mashatile was extremely unhappy,” says the source. The president had told the national executive committee he was going to put the legislation into effect, the source adds — even though he was under no obligation to do so. “That is the big thing that he has done.”

Before the act even took effect last in April 2021, there had already been calls for its amendment, with Mashatile campaigning for the R100,000 threshold for declaration to be raised, and for parties to be allowed to accept donations higher than R15m from big-ticket donors.

Ramaphosa, however, has been steadfast. As he noted last year, the act will “have far-reaching consequences for good governance and ethical political activity”.

In an interview with Sowetan this week, ANC spokesperson Pule Mabe suggested that the party has finally raised sufficient funds to pay staff and prepare for the national elective conference at Nasrec next weekend.

It’s quite a turnaround from the parlous position the party was in just a few months ago.

Anecdotal evidence from within ANC ranks suggests that Ramaphosa, like at least three of his predecessors, has raised money for the party in less than conventional ways.

Within the party there is talk about how struggle stalwart Nelson Mandela took the ANC’s treasurer-general with him on state visits, and solicited money for the party on the side. It would then be up to the official to collect the cash and return with it to South Africa.

There is no evidence that Ramaphosa has acted similarly, but sources close to the ANC have remarked how the party’s finances have improved recently.

Ramaphosa adviser Bejani Chauke, a nominee for the treasurer-general post, for example, is alleged to have done similar work — but has denied any charge of impropriety. He has, however, travelled extensively around the globe as an envoy of Ramaphosa, he says, and met with various foreign presidents in that capacity.

—  Mr Moneybags